Description :

In BMI’s Q309 Business Environment Ranking (BER) table for the 10 markets of the Americas, Colombia ranks sixth, down by one place from the previous quarter. The country’s sizeable population, combined with rising per capita expenditure in recent years, are important draws for pharmaceutical investment. However, healthcare insurance and public provision have been focused on sustainability, rather than substantial expansion, despite the government’s commitment to provide universal healthcare insurance coverage by 2010. Additionally, the country’s regulatory and pricing and reimbursement environments are considered deficient, with Colombia recently featuring in the international ‘Watch List’ as judged by the 2009 Special 301 report prepared by the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA). Concerns surround signs that intellectual property (IP) rights enforcement in Colombia is deteriorating, the denial of patents to innovative products, and the Colombian Patent Office’s (CPO) failure to provide an adequate patent linkage mechanism.

BMI has lowered its pharmaceutical market forecast to account for changing global and local economic conditions, as well as the persistent delays in the ratification of the US-Colombia free trade agreement (FTA), which will hamper access to patented products. The market should experience a CAGR of 7.77% in local currency terms through to 2013, when it is forecast to reach COP8,711bn (US$4.52bn) at consumer prices, up from COP5.992bn (US$3.05bn). After previously strong volume increases, the growth slowed in 2007, with the current economic slowdown expected to further hamper faster development of pharmaceutical volumes.

In the meantime, the government of Colombia announced that it would increase its 2009 budget by COP2.5trillion (US$1.04bn), in the wake of falling tax revenues caused by the global economic crisis and the weakening of local currency. We see little chance of Colombia avoiding a recession in 2009, as the twin engines of growth in recent years - private consumption and fixed investment - feel the brunt of collapsing consumer confidence, the global downturn and ongoing risk aversion. Indications suggest Colombia will experience its first economic contraction this year since 1999, which is penned at 1.5% by BMI’s latest forecasts, which will have a negative effect on the performance of both prescription and over-the-counter (OTC) segments of the Colombian pharmaceutical market.

Around the same time, Health Action International (HIA) published results of its investigation into the availability of 42 branded medicines in 42 private and 34 public sector pharmacies in the four Andean nations (Colombia, Peru, Bolivia and Ecuador) and Venezuela. The findings revealed that generic drugs are more widely available than branded medicines across all five countries. In Colombia, the surveyed public sector pharmacies did not stock patented drugs at all, while around 50% of stock in private pharmacies is accounted for by generics, which will also influence future market development.

Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis........6
Colombia Pharmaceutical And Healthcare Industry SWOT.......... 6
Colombia Political SWOT Analysis ............. 7
Colombia Economic SWOT Analysis ........... 8
Colombia Business Environment SWOT Analysis......... 8
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings .....9
Table: Americas – Regional Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings for Q309 ... 9
Limits To Potential Returns ........ 9
Risks To Realisation Of Returns ................ 10
Colombia – Market Summary.11
Regulatory Regime12
Intellectual Property Environment............. 12
IP Shortcomings....... 14
Counterfeit Pharmaceuticals .... 15
Proposed US Free Trade Agreement ......... 16
Table: Colombia-US FTA Mechanisms Relevant To IP............... 17
Pricing And Reimbursement Issues............ 18
Other Regulatory Issues............ 19
Industry Developments..........21
Epidemiology........... 21
Healthcare Sector .... 23
Healthcare Insurance ............... 24
Private Health Insurance.......... 25
Healthcare Insurance Funding . 26
Pharmaceutical Sector.............. 27
Recent Pharmaceutical Company Developments........ 28
Pharmaceutical Retail .............. 30
Clinical Trials.......... 30
Medical Devices....... 31
Industry Forecast Scenario ....33
Overall Market Forecast........... 33
Table: Colombia - Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts . 34
Key Growth Factors – Industry. 35
Table: Colombia - Health Expenditure Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts........ 36
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic ..... 37
Table: Colombia - Economic Activity ........ 39
Prescription Market Forecasts . 40
Table: Colombia – Prescription Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts (COPmn unless otherwise stated).... 40
Patented Market Forecast......... 42
Table: Colombia - Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts ... 43
Generics Market Forecast ........ 44
Table: Colombia - Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts..... 45
OTC Market Forecasts ............. 46
Table: Colombia - OTC Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts (COPmn unless otherwise stated) ................ 47
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecasts............... 48
Table: Colombia - Pharmaceuticals Trade Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts (US$mn).... 49
Medical Device Market Forecast............... 50
Table: Colombia – Medical Devices Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts (US$mn unless otherwise stated) ............... 50
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts.............. 51
Table: Colombia – Other Healthcare Data Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts . 51
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario...... 52
Competitive Landscape.........53
Company Monitor..54
Leading Multinationals. 54
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)............ 54
Pfizer ...... 56
Merck & Co ............. 57
Sanofi-Aventis.......... 58
Novartis .. 59
Indigenous Manufacturers ............. 60
Tecnoquímicas......... 60
Lafrancol  62
Laboratorios Brussié ................ 64
Country Snapshot: Colombia Demographic Data .66
Section 1: Population................ 66
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030............... 66
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 .............. 67
Section 2: Education And Healthcare........ 67
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ... 67
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030.............. 67
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 68
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ....... 69
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 69
BMI Forecast Modelling.........70
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts ............. 70
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings Methodology .......... 71
Ratings Overview..... 71
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators ........... 72
Weighting 73
Table: Weighting Of Components.............. 73
Sources ........ 73

List of Tables :

Table: Americas – Regional Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings for Q309 . 9

Table: Colombia-US FTA Mechanisms Relevant To IP. 17

Table: Colombia - Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts . 34

Table: Colombia - Health Expenditure Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts. 36

Table: Colombia - Economic Activity . 39

Table: Colombia – Prescription Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts (COPmn unless otherwise stated). 40

Table: Colombia - Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts . 43

Table: Colombia - Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts. 45

Table: Colombia - OTC Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts (COPmn unless otherwise stated) . 47

Table: Colombia - Pharmaceuticals Trade Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts (US$mn). 49

Table: Colombia – Medical Devices Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts (US$mn unless otherwise stated) . 50

Table: Colombia – Other Healthcare Data Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts . 51

Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030. 66

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 . 67

Table: Education, 2002-2005 . 67

Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030. 67

Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006. 68

Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) . 69

Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012. 69

Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators . 72

Table: Weighting Of Components. 73