The BMI India Retail Report
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Independent 5 year Retail industry forecast for India
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Original Retail market research and sector trend analysis for India
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Competitive intelligence, regional Retail company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic Retail companies in India
The BMI India Retail Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment. We also examine the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics. The report provides 5-year industry forecasts through end-2013, company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national Retail companies; and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in India.
Key Benefits of Report
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Benchmark BMI's Independent 5-year Retail Industry Forecasts for India to test other views – a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indian Retail market.
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Target Business Opportunities & Risks in India through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments.
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Exploit Latest Competitive Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure – includes multi-national and national companies.
Coverage:
Executive Summary
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, regulatory changes, major investments and projects, and significant multinational and national company developments.
Market Overview
Analysis of recent developments in the local retail market, including data on retail penetration, review period growth trends and the size of core retail sub-sectors; with special focus on the activities of the market's leading players.
5-Year Retail Outlook
Analysis of market growth drivers, including 5-year projections (to end-2013) for headline indicators. Industry indicators covered include:
Total retail sales (US$bn), retail sales per capita (US$), retail sales as a % of GDP, consumer spending per capita (US$), consumer price index (%), organised retail sales (US$bn), organised retail sales per capita (US$), organised retail sales as a % of GDP and organised retail sales as a % of retail sales total.
5-Year Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), private sector spending (US$bn, %), investment(US$bn, %), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn); with a special focus on demographic data affecting the local retail industry (population growth, age, gender, income).
Retail Sub-Sector Analysis
BMI's sub-sector specific analysis of the local retail sector, evaluating specific issues affecting individual retail channels, including mass grocery retail, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers, consumer electronics and automotives; contains market size and 5-year growth forecasts for specific retail sectors. Data includes Mass Grocery Retail Sales (US$bn) and breakdown by store type (supermarkets, hypermarkets, discount stores, cooperatives, convenience stores); passenger car and commercial vehicle sales (units, US$bn); Over-the-counter drug market sales (US$bn, % of total market) and breakdown (US$mn) by drug type (analgesic, cough and cold, digestives, skin treatments, vitamin and minerals); PC sales (US$bn), software sales (US$bn), gaming device sales (US$mn), video and audio sales (US$mn), mobile handset sales (US$mn).
Business Environment Rating
BMI's regional comparative analysis of the retail sector, evaluating sector-specific issues, such as market maturity and ease of distribution, within the broader Country Risk context, including each state’s overall economic and political stability.
Competitive Landscape & Profiles
Comparative company analyses by sales, % market share, employees, registration date and ownership structure. Company profiles include fully researched senior executives and contact details, business activity and leading products and services.
Executive Summary
The new BMI India Retail report predicts that total retail sales will grow from less than US$300bn in 2007 to almost US$711bn by 2013. Strong underlying economic growth, population expansion, the increasing wealth of individuals and the rapid construction of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth. As well as an ever-expanding middle- and upper-class consumer base, there will also be opportunities in India’s tier II and tier III cities. The greater availability of personal credit and a growing vehicle population that provides improved mobility also contribute to a trend towards annual retail sales growth of 18% in US dollar terms.
India’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) was US$1.17trn in 2008. Average annual GDP growth of 6.5% is predicted by BMI to 2013. With population increasing from 1.19bn in 2008 to an estimated 1.27bn by 2013, GDP per capita is predicted to grow nearly 59% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$1,563. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$594 in 2008 to US$1,104 by 2013.
The growth in the overall retail market will be driven, in large part, by the explosion in the organised retail market. By this, we mean the familiar Western concept of chain outlets, department stores, supermarkets, etc. According to Investment Commission of India (ICI) data, this segment in 2006 accounted for US$12.1bn of sales, or 4.6% of the total retail segment. BMI forecasts that organised retail sales will reach US$76.2bn by 2013, representing 10.7% of the total.
The second factor is the success that local firms have had in developing the modern concept. Domestic retailers such as Reliance Industries and Pantaloon will continue to invest heavily in growing their store networks and improving their in-store offerings, and the impact they have had on growth will only be boosted further with the arrival of expansion-oriented multinationals.
Mass grocery retail (MGR) sales in India are forecast to undergo explosive growth over the forecast period. BMI predicts that sales through modern retail outlets will increase by 777.4% to reach US$27.2bn in 2013. This phenomenal forecast is a consequence of India’s dramatic and rapid shift from independently owned small-scale retail to large-scale modern outlets; although it must also be noted that this growth is forecast to come from a very low starting point.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2008 were an estimated US$2.04trn. China and India alone in 2008 accounted for almost 93% of regional retail sales, with their combined share expected to reach 94% by 2013. Growth in regional retail sales for the period 2008 to 2013 is put by BMI at 105%, or an annual average 17.6%. China should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by Indonesia and India. For India, the estimated 2008 market share of 17.5% is expected to decrease to 16.9% by 2013.
