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Indian Two-Wheeler Industry: Rural India to be in the driver’s seat
The Indian two-wheeler industry has come long way since its humble beginning in 1948 when Bajaj Auto started importing and selling Vespa Scooters in India. Since then, the customer preferences have changed in favour of motorcycles and gearless scooterettes that score higher on technology, fuel economy and aesthetic appeal, at the expense of metal-bodied geared scooters and mopeds. These changes in customer preferences have had an impact on fortunes of the players. The erstwhile leaders have either perished or have significantly lost market share, whereas new leaders have emerged.
Rising income levels, reducing excise duties, higher loan tenure and loan-to-value offered by the financing companies have all fuelled the growth of two-wheeler sales in the country. Besides, mounting traffic chaos and limited parking space has also increased the demand for two-wheelers from households that can afford or actually do own a car. Furthermore, with increasing women working population, changing social philosophy and broad-mindedness, the penetration of two-wheelers that is currently at abysmally low level is expected to increase significantly going forward.
CARE Research has developed a statistical model that attempts to forecast the domestic two wheeler sales on the basis of ownership cost and the target population that includes young populace that can afford but do not own a two wheeler. Other qualitative factors like macro-economic outlook, consumer confidence, willingness of vehicle financers to finance TWs, etc. have also been quantitatively built in demand forecasting model.
CARE Research foresees the growth of two-wheeler sales to be healthy during the period FY09-14, albeit with some short-term hiccups. According to CARE Research, rural India would drive the growth, whereas the opportunity in urban India, especially bigger cities, is limited.
Abundant and low cost labour coupled with local availability of raw materials like steel, aluminium and natural rubber has placed India amongst the low cost producing centres of two-wheelers. Consequently, CARE Research anticipates buoyant growth in two-wheeler exports as well.
Given the currently subdued macro-economic scenario and weak consumer confidence levels as well as cautious stance of the two-wheeler financers, CARE Research expects domestic sales growth to remain muted in the medium term. However, lower penetration and rising income levels makes the longer term outlook healthy. Abundance of low cost labour and raw material gives India an upper hand in the export market. The report on ‘Indian Two-wheeler industry’ forecasts domestic sales as well as exports of two-wheelers for the next five years till FY14.
The report is divided into four sections. Section I gives the overview of the Indian two-wheeler industry. Section II provides a detailed outlook on the industry. Section III provides an overview of the top 3 players in the industry, while Section IV contains various data tables as an Annexure to the report.
I. Industry Section
This section begins with providing an introduction to the industry including the industry evolution and the types of vehicles sold.
The characteristics of the industry and the demand drivers are discussed at length. It also covers the duty structure of the industry.
Detailed analysis of historical trends for each vehicle segment (namely, motorcycles, scooters, mopeds and electric two-wheelers) and sub-segment (based on engine capacity) is also presented in this section for both domestic as well as export market.
This section also discusses about the players and competition in the industry, their respective products/brands and how each of the players fared in the industry.
Cost analysis of the industry is also provided by discussing the key cost items and trends thereof, the trends in the prices of key raw materials and the trends in the operating margins of the industry for the last three years.
II. Outlook Section
This section exclusively provides the outlook on the industry.
The forecasts of domestic two-wheeler sales for each vehicle segment for each of the next five years till FY 2013-14 are provided in this section. This helps in identifying the opportunity for a particular vehicle segment. The methodology to forecast domestic sales is also discussed in depth in this section as a box item.
The forecasts of two-wheeler exports for each vehicle segment for each of the next five years till FY 2013-14 are also the part of this section. Segmental forecasts help segregate winners from losers.
Opportunity in the domestic market is also provided on the basis of broader regional classification. Besides, the two-wheeler penetration for select cities is also provided along with the per capita income of the city. This data and analysis could help the vested parties to act accordingly.
Medium term outlook on profitability is also provided in this section.
III. Company Section
This section provides the in-depth profiles of the top three companies, namely Hero Honda, Bajaj Auto and TVS Motors.
General information like the year of incorporation, promoter group, installed capacities and production, subsidiaries and joint-ventures is provided in addition to financial information and stock prices for each company.
The company section also provides the product profile and product range for each company. Besides, it summarises the recent corporate actions, strengths and weakness of each company.
IV. Annexure
This section contains various tables that provide systematically designed information relating to the industry.
It begins with providing a gist that gives company-wise important models of motorcycles, geared scooters, gearless scooterettes and mopeds offered in the market.
This section also provides various tables presenting segment-wise as well as company-wise data on domestic sales as well as exports for the past 5 years.
For an in-depth understanding and analysis of the Indian two-wheeler industry and CARE
Research’s outlook on the sector with its segment-wise forecast of domestic sales as well as exports for each year till FY 2013-14 and other key trends in the industry foreseen, please refer to the Report on The Indian Two-wheeler Industry, June - 2009 by CARE Research.
The subscription to this report includes monthly updates on the industry for the period July 2009 to June 2010.
