Retail Futures: UK Sector Summary  

Introduction

Verdict Research: Retail Futures is a unique forecasting tool providing dynamic forecasts and analysis of market demand and price pressures every three months. A Sector Summary Report and seven UK sector and two UK channel forecasts are available (Clothing & Footwear, DIY & Gardening, Electricals, Furniture & Floorcoverings, Food & Grocery, Health & Beauty, Homewares, e-Retail, DIY Superstores).

Scope

• Brief review of economic trends and how they impact retail, explaining how we believe key economic metrics will evolve over the next two years.

• Forecasts of how overall retail and retail sectors will fare over the next nine quarters, examining volume, inflation and overall growth rates.

• Category level forecasts are provided to fully inform growth strategies.

• Forecast for online retailing, analysing total online spend, split down into food and non-food.

Highlights

Conditions look set to remain extremely challenging for retail throughout 2010. We are forecasting growth of just 1.3% this year, the second lowest growth rate, after 2009, since our records began in 1966. Indeed, Verdict is predicting low growth in retail over the next few years, as the impact of the recession continues to be felt by consumers.

Non-food is not expected to return to growth until the final quarter of 2010, and then it will be only a marginal 0.8%. While clothing & footwear and health & beauty will experience growth this will be heavily outweighed by the dire performances of more discretionary sectors, particularly those related to the housing market.

Food inflation continues to ease in Q1 2010, at 1.7%, compared to 8.9% in the same period a year ago. Inflationary pressures are subsiding due to falling commodity prices, less seasonal price fluctuations and price competition within the sector. In fact, we are forecasting food inflation of 1.9% for the year, down from 4.4% in 2009.

Reasons to Purchase

• This unique service provides constantly updated forecasts than ensures you are making the right decisions, based on the latest data.

• The reliable and accurate data exposes opportunities for growth and is a key operational planning tool to aid tactical and strategic decision-making.

• It allows you to benchmark performance with confidence and set effective targets to help maximise performance.

OVERVIEW 2
About Verdict 3
Introduction 4
Scope 4
Methodology 5
Principle Sources 6
Definitions 7
Current Prices 7
Constant Prices 7
Volume Growth 7
Inflation 7
Total Growth 8
Percentage point difference with Total Retail 8
DIY & Gardening forecasting changes 8
Help and tips to use the quarterly forecasts 9
Printing 9
Copying data to Excel 9
Viewing 9
Inserting slides into your own presentations 9
Executive Summary 10
List of Tables
Table 1: Principle sources of data and information 6
List of Figures
Figure 1: Verdict forecasting methodology 5