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World Shipbuilding Annual Market Review and Forecast 2009/2010
Overview
The largest commercial orderbook in shipbuilding history is scheduled for delivery by 2013. What happens in the shipbuilding sector will play a fundamental role in shaping the fortunes of the wider shipping market for the next decade.
Drewrys Annual Report into Shipbuilding presents a global appraisal of vessel supply the facts, rather than the rumour and hearsay, providing fleet owners and yards with a wide-ranging look at:
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The latest trends in shipbuilding completions by ship type and country of build
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The susceptibility of the orderbook to delay or cancellation
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New vessel forecasts by sector and the issues driving demand in each
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Developments in the major shipbuilding countries in terms of capacity and competitive environment.
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Newbuilding prices and shipbuilding economics
Unless immediate steps are taken to reduce net increases in fleet supply over the next five years, certain sectors face over tonnaging leading to lower freight rates, increased vessel lay-up and bankruptcy among shipowners.
The challenge is to find ways of reducing the pace at which ships are being built.
Through a combination of measures from outright cancellation, agreed delays, order deferment and increased scrapping, it should be possible to slow newbuild deliveries down. But it will take a large effort by shipowners, yards and financiers to work together to find a way out of the over tonnage dilemma.
The Report assesses the different options available to ship owners and builders.
At Drewry, we believe the solution to over-supply lies in the timing. The data supports a range of conclusions on:
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Slippage to what degree is this happening? Will it ease the situation? What is the downside?
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Cancellations reality or wishful thinking?
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Scrapping what level of ageing tonnage will be removed from the supply side?
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Future shipbuilding demand what is the projected requirement for new vessels in the next fifteen years?
Intelligence creates advantage. World Shipbuilding Market Review and Forecast 2009/10 has the analyses and insights to help business deal with the vessel supply challenge head-on.
Description
World Shipbuilding Market Review and Forecast 2009/10 is the first comprehensive analysis of global vessel supply.
Truth or myth:
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Order book phasing ships are not being delivered on time?
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The current collapse in the market will lead to large-scale cancellations or deferrals?
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Scrapping will remove a significant proportion of the existing fleet?
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Ship demand will recover and absorb the new tonnage on order?
Discover the certainty behind the speculation
order your copy of the Report today.
Drewry analysts have projected the newbuilding requirement right up to 2023 - to meet both the expected changes in seaborne trade and ship demand (including the need to replace ships that are scrapped as a result of age or technical obsolescence).
Comparing these projections against the known orderbook and forecast schedule of deliveries, exposes the scale of the problem and the need to find ways of reducing the net increases in supply in the next five years. The key areas examined include:
Delivery schedules how robust?
Late reports take total 2008 deliveries close to 40 million cgt, so the increase in shipyard output last year was gradual rather than the explosion the orderbook indicated. At the end of 2008, some 16m cgt, or 45% of the scheduled delivered output appears to have been undelivered
what is known as slippage. From a shipping market perspective, this form of slow-down can only help ship owners. For yards, of course, slippage is not good news as reputations are at stake, not to mention late delivery penalties. But, significant over-supply is still likely.
Cancellations will these be large-scale?
So far only a very small proportion of the orderbook has been reported as cancelled. The real figure is probably higher due to shipyard and shipowner reluctance to report openly. But to assume that a significant portion of the orderbook will be removed is probably wishful thinking as it takes no account of the type of ship that has been ordered, who has placed the order, the location of the order and when the ship is due to be delivered.
As part of the research, the Report presents a detailed risk assessment of the likelihood of cancellation for all of the 10,000 plus cargo carrying ships currently on order.
Scrapping will this reduce numbers?
This will vary according to the sector. The rate of deletions in sectors such as container ships will remain low despite the appalling market conditions. More likely, as is already happening, ships will be temporarily removed from the market by lay-up. Higher levels of scrapping can be expected in sectors such as bulk carriers as a result of the fleet age profile and weak freight market conditions. Drewrys assessments suggest that some 50-60 million dwt will be scrapped in the bulk carrier sector between now and the end of 2013.
Demand will it recover?
The short-term demand forecast is clearly poor; It seems unlikely that seaborne trade will return to the growth rates of 2003-2008 quickly. Without the growth in trade there will be little additional demand for new ships to absorb the large volumes of the tonnage currently on order within a respectable time period.
