Belarus Defence & Security Report  

The Belarus Defence & Security Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering all headline indicators; 5-year industry forecasts for Belarus through end-2014; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering national and multinational arms and components manufacturers, electronic and software producers, and companies providing defence solutions, as well as analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes in Belarus.

Business Monitor International's Belarus Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Belarusian defence & security industry.

Key Benefits of Report

• Benchmark BMI’s Independent 5-Year Defence & Security Industry Forecast on Belarus to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Belarusian defence and security market.

• Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Belarusian Defence & Security Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Belarus.

• Exploit The Latest Competitive Belarusian Defence & Security Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your peers and competitors through company rankings by sales, market share, investments and leading products and services.

Coverage SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting security, the defence sector, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'strengths', 'weaknesses', 'opportunities' and 'threats'.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI’s twenty-year heritage of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI’s proprietary Security Ratings provide a reliable – and country comparable – guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst’s latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our Country Risk expertise, we assess the state’s vulnerability to a serious – or prolonged – terrorist campaign.

Defence Industry Assessment

Overview of industry landscape and key players; public/private structure, size and value of industry sector; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments; indepth review of recent procurement trends and developments.

BMI 5-Year Forecasts

Historic data series and 5-year forecasts to end-2014 for key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn); employment in arms production (‘000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force); arms imports (US$mn); arms imports (% of total imports); arms exports (US$mn); arms exports (% of total exports)

BMI 5-year forecast and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Company profiles, including senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.

Executive Summary  ........5
SWOT Analysis  ........6
Belarus Security SWOT  ......................... 6
Belarus Defence Industry SWOT   .......... 7
Belarus Political SWOT  ........................ 8
Belarus Economic SWOT  ...................... 8
Belarus Business Environment SWOT   .. 9
Global Political Outlook ............................10
Table: Countries Facing Major Leadership Succession In 2010-2019  ............ 12
Table: Countries At Risk Of Major Political Upheaval  .................................. 15
Table: Countries At Risk Of Interstate Conflict Or Heightened Bilateral Tensions  ................................. 19
Table: Countries Facing Secessionist Or Autonomy Movements, Insurgencies, Or Civil Wars ............... 22
Table: Pivotal States  ........................... 25
Central And Eastern Europe Overview  ....27
Political Overview  ..33
Security Risk Analysis ..............................36
BMI’s Security Ratings   ....................... 36
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings   .. 36
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ................... 37
Belarus’ Security Ratings   ................... 38
City Terrorism Ratings   ....................... 39
Table: BMI’s Central & Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index ................................... 39
Security Overview   .41
Internal Security Situation   .................. 41
Latest Developments   ........................... 41
Territorial Disputes   ............................ 42
Relations With The West   ..................... 43
Relations With Central Asia And Russia  ..................... 44
Latest Developments   ........................... 46
Armed Forces And Government Spending   .49
Armed Forces    . 49
Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2007 (Including conscripted, ‘000)  ............... 49
Current Strength   ................................. 49
Historical Strength  .............................. 50
Weapons Of Mass Destruction  ............ 51
Market Overview  ....52
Industry Trends And Developments   .... 53
Table: Key Players In Belarus’ Defence Sector  .......... 54
Arms Trade Overview  ......................... 55
Procurement Trends And Developments  ..................... 58
Latest Developments   ........................... 59
Industry Forecast Scenario  .......................61
Table: Belarus’ Armed Forces, 2006-2014 (‘000 personnel) .......................... 61
Table: Belarus’ Defence Expenditure, 2006-2014   ...... 61
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario   .... 62
Table: Belarus – Economic Activity, 2006-2013  ......... 64
Company Profiles  ..65
Beltechexport    .. 65
558 Aviation Repair Plant   .................. 66
Minsk Wheeled Tractor Plant (MZKT)   ....................... 67
Minotor Service Company   .................. 68
Country Snapshot: Belarus Demographic Data ..............................69
Section 1: Population  .......................... 69
Table: Demographic Indicators , 2005-2030  .............. 69
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030   .............. 70
Section 2: Education And Healthcare  . 70
Table: Education, 2000-2005   ............. 70
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030  ....... 70
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power   ......... 71
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006  ................. 71
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)   ....... 71
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2005-2009  ................. 72
BMI Methodology   ..73
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts   ................. 73
Defence Industry  ................................. 73
City Terrorism Rating  ......................... 74
Table: Methodology  ............................ 76
Sources   ....... 77