World Fuel Cells to 2015

Global commercial demand to more than triple by 2020
Global fuel cell spending is forecast to climb 10.9 percent annually to $10.3 billion in 2015 and total $19.2 billion in 2020. Commercial demand for fuel cell products and services will more than triple to $2.9 billion in 2015 and then triple again to $9.4 billion in 2020, when it will account for nearly half of all outlays. Market gains will be driven by continuing technological advances, helping bring costs down to competitive levels in a growing number of applications, and bolstered by improved economies of scale as fuel cell manufacturers increase production.

Portable fuel cell systems to become dominant types
Commercial sales of fuel cell systems will expand exponentially in unit terms. Although gains are projected to be strong for most fuel cell applications, virtually all of this increase will be attributable to an explosion in sales of portable fuel cell systems, which are expected to account for 97 percent of all unit demand in 2020. The market for portable electronics fuel cells, most of which are currently utilized in niche applications like defense and educational toys, will be spurred by user frustration over the shortcomings of batteries as a power source, and declining costs will help make fuel cells an affordable alternative source of portable power.

Motor vehicle fuel cells to be most valuable market
Although fuel cells used in motor vehicle applications will account for less than one-half of one percent of the total number of systems sold in 2020, they will make up the largest single share of demand in dollar terms. A number of major automakers have announced plans to begin offering fuel cell vehicles commercially in 2015 or before, and sales are forecast to ramp up from what are currently extremely modest levels, consisting predominantly of revenues generated from the sale of products and services associated with prototyping, demonstration and test marketing. With a number of products already on the market, electric power generation applications accounted for well over half of all commercial fuel cell demand in 2010. Electric power generation-related fuel cell sales will continue to grow at a brisk pace through 2020, benefitting from the relatively low hurdles that this equipment has to overcome to achieve cost competitiveness and its much greater fuel efficiency compared to conventional power generation methods.

PEM types, DMFCs to offer best product opportunities
Proton-exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells are by far the most widely used, and they will strengthen their dominant market position over the next decade. More organizations are working to develop and market PEM systems than any other single fuel cell chemistry, which will help boost demand as additional PEM products are introduced. However, demand for direct methanol fuel cells (DMFCs) will expand at a faster rate through 2020. DMFCs can extract hydrogen from methanol without the need for a reformer, making them highly suitable for powering small electronic devices where a reformer would add unwanted bulk. Sales of hightemperature solid-oxide and molten carbonate fuel cells are also projected to climb rapidly because of their ability to use multiple fuels and their high energy efficiency, which can exceed 80 percent if excess heat generated is recaptured for cogeneration purposes.

Study coverage
Details on these and other key findings are contained in a new Freedonia industry study, World Fuel Cells, available for $6100. It presents historical demand data (2000, 2005 and 2010) plus forecasts for 2015 and 2020 by product, chemistry, application, world region and for 15 countries. The study also considers key market environment factors, assesses industry structure, evaluates company market share and profiles 37 industry competitors worldwide.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION xii

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1

II. MARKET ENVIRONMENT 4
General 4
World Economic Overview 5
Recent Economic Performance 6
Economic Outlook 8
Personal Income & Expenditure Trends 12
World Population Outlook 13
Gross Fixed Investment & Manufacturing Trends 15
World Gross Fixed Investment Outlook 16
World Manufacturing Outlook 17
Fuel Cell Infrastructure 19
World Energy & Power Generation Outlook 20
Energy Supply & Demand 21
Electric Power Generation 24
Distributed Power/Micropower 25
World Motor Vehicle Outlook 26
Motor Vehicle Production Trends 27
Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Outlook 30
World Electronics Sector Outlook 34
Government/Institutional Trends 35
Fuel Cell Cost/Pricing Dynamics 37
Environmental & Regulatory Issues 40

III. TECHNOLOGY 42
General 42
Basic Electrical Properties 43
Fuel Cell Construction & Operation 44
Fuel Cell Chemistries 45
Alkaline 46
Molten Carbonate 47
Phosphoric Acid 48
Proton-Exchange Membrane 48
Direct Methanol 49
Solid-Oxide 50
Other 51
Hydrogen Fuel Sources 53
Fuel Cell Materials 54
Catalysts 54
Electrodes, Electrolytes & Plates 55
Nanotechnology 56
Alternate Sources of Power 58
Batteries 59
Internal Combustion Engines 61
Turbines & Microturbines 63
Other Sources of Power 65

IV. WORLD SUPPLY & DEMAND 68
General 68
World Fuel Cell Markets 69
Regional Demand Dynamics 70
Total Fuel Cell Spending 73
Commercial Fuel Cell Demand 75
Demand by Product 77
Systems 78
Fuels 80
Electronic Devices 81
Other Products & Services 82
Demand by Chemistry 84
Proton-Exchange Membrane 86
Solid-Oxide 89
Molten Carbonate 92
Phosphoric Acid 94
Direct Methanol 97
Alkaline 99
Other 101
Demand by Application 104
Electric Power Generation 107
Motor Vehicles 110
Other Transportation Equipment 114
Ships & Boats 118
All Other 119
Industrial Stationary & Motive Power 120
Industrial Stationary Power 124
Motive Power 124
Portable Electronics 125
Other 129
World Fuel Cell Production 131
International Trade Flows & Multinational Investment 134

V. NORTH AMERICA 136
North America: General 136
North America: Fuel Cell Activity & Markets 137
North America: Fuel Cell Outlook 138
United States 141
Canada 148
Mexico 153

VI. WESTERN EUROPE 158
Western Europe: General 158
Western Europe: Fuel Cell Activity & Markets 159
Western Europe: Fuel Cell Outlook 161
Germany 164
United Kingdom 170
Italy 175
France 180
Netherlands 185
Spain 190
Other Western Europe 195

VII. ASIA/PACIFIC 200
Asia/Pacific: General 200
Asia/Pacific: Fuel Cell Activity & Markets 201
Asia/Pacific: Fuel Cell Outlook 203
Japan 206
South Korea 214
China 220
India 226
Australia 231
Other Asia/Pacific 236

VIII. OTHER REGIONS 241
Central & South America 241
Eastern Europe 247
Russia 252
Other Eastern Europe 258
Africa/Mideast 263

IX. INDUSTRY STRUCTURE 269
General 269
Industry Composition 270
Market Share 272
Panasonic 273
UTC Power 274
FuelCell Energy 275
Bloom Energy 275
Toshiba 276
Ballard Power Systems 277
ENEOS CellTech 277
Other Companies 278
Research & Product Development 279
Manufacturing 281
Marketing & Distribution 282
Cooperative Agreements 283
Financial Requirements 296
Acquisitions & Divestitures 297
Company Profiles 299
Acumentrics Corporation 300
Altergy Systems 301
AREVA Group 303
Automotive Fuel Cell Cooperation, see Ballard Power Systems,
Daimler and Ford Motor
AXANE, see L’Air Liquide
Ballard Power Systems Incorporated 305
Bloom Energy Corporation 311
Bridgeport Fuel Cell Park, see FuelCell Energy
Cell Impact, see Morphic Technologies
Ceramic Fuel Cells Limited 312
ClearEdge Power Incorporated 316
Daimler AG 317
Dantherm Power A/S, see Ballard Power Systems
Electro Power Systems SpA 320
ENEOS CellTech, see JX Holdings and Panasonic
Exergy Fuel Cells, see Morphic Technologies
Ford Motor Company 321
FuelCell Energy Incorporated 323
FuelCellPower Incorporated 328
General Motors Company 329
Helion, see AREVA Group
Honda Motor Company Limited 333
Horizon Fuel Cell Technologies Pte Limited 336
Hydrogenics Corporation 338
Hyundai Motor Company 342
IdaTech plc 344
Intelligent Energy Holdings plc 348
Jadoo Power Systems Incorporated 350
Johnson Matthey plc 352
JX Holdings Incorporated 354
L’Air Liquide SA 356
Morphic Technologies AB 358
Nippon Oil, see JX Holdings
NuCellSys, see Daimler
Nuvera Fuel Cells Incorporated 360
Panasonic Corporation 364
Plug Power Incorporated 366
Protonex Technology Corporation 368
Quantum Fuel Systems Technologies Worldwide
Incorporated 371
ReliOn Incorporated 374
SFC Energy AG 376
Siemens AG 380
Sunrise Power Company Limited 383
Teledyne Technologies Incorporated 384
Toshiba Corporation 387
Toyota Motor Corporation 388
United Technologies Corporation 392
Other Companies Mentioned in Study 396

LIST OF TABLES

SECTION I -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Summary Table 3

SECTION II -- MARKET ENVIRONMENT
1 World Gross Domestic Product by Region 11
2 World Per Capita GDP by Region 13
3 World Population by Region 15
4 World Gross Fixed Investment by Region 17
5 World Manufacturing Value Added by Region 19
6 World Energy Production by Type 23
7 World Electric Power Generation by Region 25
8 World Motor Vehicle Production by Type & Region 30
9 World Hybrid & Electric Light Vehicle Demand by Region 33
10 World Electronic Product Shipments by Region 35
11 World Fuel Cell System Costs 39

SECTION III -- TECHNOLOGY
1 World Battery Demand by Region 61
2 World Internal Combustion Engine Demand by Region 63
3 World Electric Power Generation Turbine Demand by Region 65

SECTION IV -- WORLD SUPPLY & DEMAND
1 Total World Fuel Cell Spending by Type & Region 74
2 World Commercial Fuel Cell Demand by Region 76
3 World Commercial Fuel Cell Demand by Product 78
4 World Commercial Fuel Cell Demand by Chemistry 85
5 World Commercial Proton-Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell Demand by Application & Region 88
6 World Commercial Solid-Oxide Fuel Cell Demand by Application & Region 91
7 World Commercial Molten Carbonate Fuel Cell Demand by Application & Region 93
8 World Commercial Phosphoric Acid Fuel Cell Demand by Application & Region 96
9 World Commercial Direct Methanol Fuel Cell Demand by Application & Region 98
10 World Commercial Alkaline Fuel Cell Demand by Application & Region 100
11 World Commercial Demand for Other Fuel Cell Types by Application & Region 103
12 World Commercial Fuel Cell Demand by Application 105
13 World Commercial Fuel Cell Systems Demand by Application 106
14 World Commercial Electric Power Generation Fuel Cell Demand by Chemistry & Product 109
15 World Commercial Electric Power Generation Fuel Cell Demand by Region 110
16 World Commercial Motor Vehicle Fuel Cell Demand by Chemistry & Product 112
17 World Commercial Motor Vehicle Fuel Cell Demand by Region 114
18 World Demand for Fuel Cells Used in Other Transportation Equipment by Application, Chemistry & Product 116
19 World Demand for Fuel Cells Used in Other Transportation Equipment by Region 118
20 World Commercial Industrial Stationary & Motive Power Fuel Cell Demand by Application, Chemistry & Product 122
21 World Commercial Industrial Stationary & Motive Power Fuel Cell Demand by Region 123
22 World Commercial Portable Electronics Fuel Cell Demand by Chemistry & Product 127
23 World Commercial Portable Electronics Fuel Cell Demand by Region 128
24 World Demand for Fuel Cells Used in Other Applications by Chemistry & Product 130
25 World Commercial Demand for Fuel Cells Used in Other Applications by Region 131
26 Selected International Fuel Cell Programs 133

SECTION V -- NORTH AMERICA
1 North America - Economic & Market Environment 138
2 North America - Commercial Fuel Cell Demand 140
3 United States - Economic & Market Environment 144
4 United States - Commercial Fuel Cell Demand 147
5 Canada - Economic & Market Environment 150
6 Canada - Commercial Fuel Cell Demand 152
7 Mexico - Economic & Market Environment 155
8 Mexico - Commercial Fuel Cell Demand 157

SECTION VI -- WESTERN EUROPE
1 Western Europe - Economic & Market Environment 161
2 Western Europe - Commercial Fuel Cell Demand 163
3 Germany - Economic & Market Environment 167
4 Germany - Commercial Fuel Cell Demand 169
5 United Kingdom - Economic & Market Environment 172
6 United Kingdom - Commercial Fuel Cell Demand 174
7 Italy - Economic & Market Environment 177
8 Italy - Commercial Fuel Cell Demand 179
9 France - Economic & Market Environment 182
10 France - Commercial Fuel Cell Demand 184
11 Netherlands - Economic & Market Environment 187
12 Netherlands - Commercial Fuel Cell Demand 189
13 Spain - Economic & Market Environment 192
14 Spain - Commercial Fuel Cell Demand 194
15 Other Western Europe - Economic & Market Environment 197
16 Other Western Europe - Commercial Fuel Cell Demand 199

SECTION VII -- ASIA/PACIFIC
1 Asia/Pacific - Economic & Market Environment 203
2 Asia/Pacific - Commercial Fuel Cell Demand 205
3 Japan - Economic & Market Environment 210
4 Japan - Commercial Fuel Cell Demand 213
5 South Korea - Economic & Market Environment 217
6 South Korea - Commercial Fuel Cell Demand 219
7 China - Economic & Market Environment 223
8 China - Commercial Fuel Cell Demand 225
9 India - Economic & Market Environment 228
10 India - Commercial Fuel Cell Demand 230
11 Australia - Economic & Market Environment 233
12 Australia - Commercial Fuel Cell Demand 235
13 Other Asia/Pacific - Economic & Market Environment 238
14 Other Asia/Pacific - Commercial Fuel Cell Demand 240

SECTION VIII -- OTHER REGIONS
1 Central & South America - Economic & Market Environment 243
2 Central & South America - Commercial Fuel Cell Demand 246
3 Eastern Europe - Economic & Market Environment 249
4 Eastern Europe - Commercial Fuel Cell Demand 251
5 Russia - Economic & Market Environment 254
6 Russia - Commercial Fuel Cell Demand 257
7 Other Eastern Europe - Economic & Market Environment 260
8 Other Eastern Europe - Commercial Fuel Cell Demand 262
9 Africa/Mideast - Commercial & Market Environment 266
10 Africa/Mideast - Commercial Fuel Cell Demand 268

SECTION IX -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
1 Fuel Cell-Related Revenues for Selected Companies, 2010 271
2 Research & Development Spending by Selected Fuel Cell Companies, 2008-2010 280
3 Selected Cooperative Agreements 286
4 Selected Acquisitions & Divestitures 298

LIST OF CHARTS

SECTION II -- MARKET ENVIRONMENT
1 World Energy Production by Type, 2000-2020 23
2 World Fuel Cell System Costs, 2000-2020 39

SECTION III -- TECHNOLOGY
1 Basic Fuel Cell Construction 45
2 Gravimetric Energy Density of Various Power Conversion & Storage Systems 59

SECTION IV -- WORLD SUPPLY & DEMAND
1 Relationship Between Per Capita Fuel Cell Demand & Per Capita GDP, 2020 72
2 Total World Fuel Cell Spending by Region, 2020 75
3 World Commercial Fuel Cell Demand by Region, 2020 77
4 World Commercial Fuel Cell Demand by Chemistry, 2020 85
5 World Commercial Fuel Cell Demand by Application, 2020 105
6 World Commercial Fuel Cell Systems Demand by Application, 2000-2020 107

SECTION V -- NORTH AMERICA
1 North America - Commercial Fuel Cell Demand by Country, 2020 141

SECTION VI -- WESTERN EUROPE
1 Western Europe - Commercial Fuel Cell Demand by Country, 2020 164

SECTION VII -- ASIA/PACIFIC
1 Asia/Pacific - Commercial Fuel Cell Demand by Country, 2020 206

SECTION IX -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
1 World Fuel Cell Market Share by Company, 2010 273