India Aviation Industry 1H12

India’s GDP grew by 5.3% in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2012, recording its worst performance in last nine years. This slowdown in growth was primarily a result of high inflation, high interest rates and policy paralysis. Indian aviation industry had a good year in terms of passenger traffic growth but one of the worst years in terms of profitability. All scheduled Indian air carriers except IndiGo, incurred losses in the year. Kingfisher Airlines and Air India suffered from several payment defaults and pilot strikes. Their flight schedules were disturbed many times during the year. The total loss for all the airlines during the period 2008-11 was around USD 4 billion and for FY12 was approximately USD 2 billion according to the Ministry of Civil Aviation. 

High airport charges, deprecation of Indian rupee, expensive aircraft turbine fuel and low air fares were the main reasons cited by the companies for the successive losses faced by them. According to Center for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA) the combined debt of Indian airlines companies was around USD 15 Billion as of March 2012. 

All was not bad as Indian aviation witnessed growth, both in domestic as well as international passenger traffic in first six months of calendar year 2012. Domestic passenger traffic grew by 11% in calendar year 2011 and by 4% in first six months of calendar year 2012. International passenger traffic registered 8% growth in first six months of calendar year 2012 after contracting by 19% in calendar year 2011. The working group on civil aviation for 12th Five Year Plan expects the international passenger traffic to touch 60 million and domestic passenger traffic to touch 209 million by year 2016. 

Low cost carriers gained significant market share during the first six months of year 2012. IndiGo became the second largest carrier in the domestic market with a share of 26% while SpiceJet became third with a share of 18.6%. Together, the low cost carriers held a market share of more than 58%. Kingfisher saw substantive erosion in its market share and slipped to the sixth position, below GoAir. In terms of operating performance, IndiGo emerged as the best carrier on many parameters. It held the best position in terms of on time performance, employee to aircraft ratio, flight cancellation data and passenger load factor. IndiGo was also the only carrier which made profits in the fiscal year 2012 according to Ministry of Civil Aviation. 

In the fiscal year 2012, Jet airways led the aviation industry by recording a total income of INR 167 billion, a y/y growth of 15%. However it recorded a net loss of INR 14 billion during the year. SpiceJet Ltd recorded a total income of INR 40 billion, a y/y growth of 36%. Its net loss for the year stood at INR 6 billion. Kingfisher Airways had the worst year of its existence in terms of financial performance. It registered a revenue decline of 12% and a net loss of INR 23.2 billion. It defaulted on its payments to banks, oil companies and airport authorities. The company had to discontinue its international operations and scale down its domestic operations in order to sustain. Spicejet’s profit in first quarter of FY13 showed that the outlook for Indian Aviation is stable as far as low cost carriers are concerned. The full service carriers will probably struggle to maintain their profitability and solvency.