The Japan Real Estate Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts to end-2016 of major construction projects in the residential and commercial markets, plus rental prices and yields in major cities. The report critically analyses the prospects for real estate within the broader economic and financial context - both domestic and global - via our econometrically-modelled and clearly explained banking and economic forecasts, and follows this through to evaluate the implications for REITs.
BMI's Japan Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the real estate industry in Japan.
- Benchmark BMI's independent real estate industry forecasts to end-2016 for Japan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Japanese real estate market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Japan through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering real estate and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects, and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the real estate sector, and within the broader political, financial, economic and business environment.
Overview of the real estate sector, including analysis of existing/planned real estate developments and emerging industry trends in the office, industrial and commercial sectors.
Features detailed city-level data and analysis on rental prices, yields, contract terms and real estate availability across the office, retail and industrial sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historical data series (2007-2011) and forecasts to end-2016 for the domestic real estate industry and for the local and global finance industry. Indicators include:
Real Estate: Office, retail and industrial real estate yields for all major cities (%); short-term forecasts on minimum and maximum real estate rental prices by sub-sector (US$ per square metre, and local currency per square metre)
Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%)
Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$)
Business Environment Ratings
BMI's Real Estate Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (real estate vendors, construction companies and financial investors) in the regional real estate market.
The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Japan Real Estate/Construction SWOT 7
Japan Political SWOT 8
Japan Economic SWOT 9
Japan Business Environment SWOT 10
Real Estate Market Overview 11
Market Analysis Office 13
Supply And Demand 13
Rents And Yields 13
Table: Historic Rents 2010-2011 (USD per m2/month) 14
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%) 14
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases Mid-2011 15
Industry Forecast Scenario 16
Table: Forecast Rents (USD per m2/month) 17
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%) 17
Market Analysis Retail 18
Supply And Demand 18
Rents And Yields 18
Table: Historic Rents 2010-2011 (USD per m2/month) 20
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%) 20
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases Mid-2011 20
Industry Forecast Scenario 21
Industry Forecast Scenario 21
Table: Forecast Rents (USD per m2/month) 21
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%) 21
Market Analysis Industrial 22
Supply And Demand 22
Rents And Yields 22
Table: Historic Rents 2010-2011 (USD per m2/month) 23
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%) 24
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases Mid-2011 24
Industry Forecast Scenario 25
Table: Forecast Rents (USD per m2/month) 25
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%) 25
Forecast Scenarios 26
Infrastructure Report 26
Table: Japan Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data 26
Table: Japan Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data 27
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 29
Table : Value of Construction Orders Received (Infrastructure), JPY100mn 34
Macroeconomic Outlook 35
Table: Japan - Economic Activity 37
Real Estate Risk Reward Ratings 38
Real Estate/Construction Risk/Reward Ratings 38
Table: Real Estate/Construction Risk/Reward Ratings 38
Japans Business Environment 38
Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings 39
Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating 40
Table: Labour Force Quality 44
Market Orientation 44
Table: Asia, Annual FDI Inflows 45
Table: Trade And Investment Ratings 46
Table: Top Export Destinations 47
Operational Risk 48
Competitive Landscape 49
Company Profiles 51
Kajima Corporation 51
Kumagai Gumi 52
Obayashi Corporation 53
Shimizu Corporation 55
Demographic Data 57
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 58
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 59
Table: Japan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 60
Table: Japan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 60
BMI Methodology 61
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 61
Construction Industry 62
Bank Lending 63
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating 63
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 64