North Korea Defence & Security Report

Product Description

The North Korea Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts to end-2016 for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers, and the regulatory environment.

BMI's North Korea Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the North Korean defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

• Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecast to end-2016 on North Korea to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the North Korean defence and security market.
• Target business opportunities and risks in the North Korean defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in North Korea.
• Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Global Political Outlook
A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict, or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis
Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

Political Risk Assessment
Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis
BMI's proprietary Security Risk Ratings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

Industry Overview
Overview of industry landscape and key players; public/private structure, size and value of industry sector; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments; in-depth review of recent procurement trends and developments.

BMI Forecasts To End-2016
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2016 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).
Employment: employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).
Macroeconomic: BMI forecast and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Executive Summary ... 5
SWOT Analysis ........... 6
North Korea Security SWOT ...... 6
North Korea Defence Industry SWOT ........... 7
Global Political Outlook ................ 8
Global Hotspots: Eurozone, MENA, Afghanistan And Korea ............. 8
Table: Election Timetable, 2012 ................. 14
United States ......... 16
Latin America ....... 17
Western Europe .... 18
Central, Eastern And South-Eastern Europe ................. 20
Russia And The Former Soviet Union ......... 21
Middle East And North Africa . 22
Sub-Saharan Africa.................. 24
Asia .... 26
Wild Cards To Watch ............... 31
North East Asia Security Overview ............... 34
The Geopolitical Importance Of North East Asia .......... 34
Flashpoints And Faultlines In North East Asia .............. 35
Organised Crime .. 42
The Evolution Of North East Asia ............... 43
Sino-US Power Struggle ............. 46
Chinese Influence In Asia: A SWOT Analysis ................ 47
US Influence In Asia: A SWOT Analysis ..... 48
Table: Asian States And Their Relationships With China ................. 50
Emerging Geopolitical Patterns ................. 53
Security Risk Analysis ................ 57
BMI’s Security Ratings ............ 57
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings ............... 57
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ............. 58
Political Overview ..... 60
Domestic Politics .. 60
Foreign Policy ...... 65
Security Overview .... 68
Internal Security Situation ............ 68
External Security Situation ........... 70
The Nuclear Dispute: No Disarmament In Sight ............ 71
North Korea-US Relations ....... 74
North-South Relations .............. 74
North Korea-Japan Relations .. 77
North Korea-China Relations .. 78
North Korea-Russia Relations . 79
Armed Forces And Government Spending .. 81
Armed Forces ....... 81
Weapons Of Mass Destruction . 85
Chemical And Biological Weapons ............. 86
Nuclear Weapons .. 87
Market Overview ....... 91
Recent Changes .... 92
Arms Trade ........... 93
Industry Trends And Developments ............ 94
Industry Forecast Scenario ......... 98
Armed Forces ....... 98
Table: North Korea’s Armed Forces, 2000-2009 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) ... 98
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) ........ 98
Defence Expenditure ................ 99
Table: North Korea’s Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 ..................100
Table: Defence Expenditure And Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn).....101
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario ......101
Competitive Landscape ............. 102
BMI Methodology ... 103
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 103
Defence Industry ..103
Sources ................104