The Serbia Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.
BMI's Serbia Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Serbian defence and security industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Serbia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Serbian defence and security market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Serbian defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Serbia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
Global Political Outlook
A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.
Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.
Political Risk Assessment
Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.
Security Risk Analysis
BMI's proprietary Security Risk Ratings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.
Overview of industry landscape and key players; public/private structure, size and value of industry sector; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments; in-depth review of recent procurement trends and developments.
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2016 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).
Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).
Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Serbia Security SWOT 6
Serbia Defence Industry SWOT 7
Serbia Political SWOT 7
Serbia Economic SWOT 8
Global Political Outlook 9
Global Hotspots 10
Table: Global Election Timetable, 2010 And 2011 11
Latin America: More Of The Same 17
Western Europe 18
Central Europe 20
South Eastern Europe 20
Russia And The Former Soviet Union 21
Middle East: Mostly The Same Old Challenges 22
Sub-Saharan Africa: Definitive Elections Pending 24
Asia: Accommodating A More Powerful China 25
Wild Cards 27
Global Security Outlook 30
Political Risk Analysis – The Future Of NATO 36
Regional Security Overview 41
Security Risk Analysis 47
BMI’s Security Ratings 47
Serbia’s Security Risk Ratings 47
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings 48
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 49
City Terrorism Rating 52
Table: BMI’s Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index 52
Domestic Political Overview 55
Security Overview 56
Internal Security Situation 56
Latest Developments 64
External Security Situation 66
Latest Developments 67
Armed Forces And Government Spending 69
Pre-Split Armed Forces 71
International Deployments 73
Table: Foreign Deployments 73
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 73
Market Structure 75
Arms Trade Overview 76
Industry Trends And Developments 78
Procurement Trends And Developments 79
Latest Developments 80
Industry Forecast Scenario 82
Table: Serbia’s Military Personnel, 2005-2008 (‘000 personnel) 82
Table: Serbia’s Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015 83
Table: Serbia’s Defence Exports, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 84
Table: Serbia’s Defence Imports, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 84
Macroeconomic Activity 85
Company Profiles 88
Prvi Partizan 89
Zastava Oružje S-M 90