Ukraine Defence & Security Report

The Ukraine Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.
BMI's Ukraine Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Ukrainian defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

• Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Ukraine to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Ukrainian defence and security market.
• Target business opportunities and risks in the Ukrainian defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine.
• Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks
A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis
Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

Political Risk Assessment
Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis
BMI's proprietary Security Risk Ratings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure
The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Domestic Security Overview
The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).
Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).
Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Executive Summary5
SWOT Analysis6
Ukraine Security SWOT6
Ukraine Defence Industry SWOT7
Ukraine Political SWOT8
Ukraine Economic SWOT9
Ukraine Business Environment SWOT9
Global Political Outlook10
Europe Security Overview15
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s15
Europe In A Global Context15
Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade15
The Future Of The Eurozone And EU15
EU Expansion16
NATO Expansion And Relations With The US16
Post-Qadhafi Libya17
Relations With Russia17
Relations With Turkey18
The Balkans19
Organised Crime19
Islamist Terrorism19
The Greater Black Sea Region20
The Armenia-Azerbaijan Dispute21
Security Risk Analysis22
BMI-s Security Ratings22
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings22
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index23
Political Overview25
Domestic Politics25
Long-Term Political Outlook27
Security Overview31
Russia32
The US, Europe And NATO34
Commonwealth Of Independent States36
Border Security 36
Serpent/Zmeiny Island 37
Tuzla Island37
Latest Developments 38
Armed Forces And Government Spending 40
Army 41
Navy 41
Air Force 43
Industry Trends And Developments 44
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 45
Market Overview 47
Procurement Trends And Developments 48
Latest Developments 49
Industry Forecast Scenario 51
Armed Forces 51
Table: Ukraine-s Armed Forces, 2002-2008 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 51
Table: Ukraine-s Manpower Available For Military Services, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 51
Defence Expenditure 52
Table: Ukraine-s Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017 52
Table: Ukraine-s Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 53
Macroeconomic Forecast 54
Table: Ukraine - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 55
Methodology 56
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 56
Defence Industry 56
Sources 58