Solid Oxide Fuel Cells: Technologies and Global Markets

REPORT HIGHLIGHTS

• The global solid oxide fuel cell market in 2011 will be worth more than $380 million, up from $360 million in 2010. This will result in a $530 million global market in 2016, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.9% between 2011 and 2016 under a consensus scenario.
• The market for CPUs is valued at $140 million in 2011 and is forecast to rise to almost $215 million by 2016, reflecting a CAGR of 9%.
• The total market for generators, remote and APUs is likely to increase from $135 million in 2011 to approximately $159 million in 2016, a CAGR of 3.3%.

INTRODUCTION

STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES
Fuel cells are viewed as potential candidates for auxiliary power, mobile power, stationary distributed or central power, and portable product power.  Solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) are among the most efficient and cost-effective.  Although relatively high operating temperature limits the range of applications possible, stationary, mobile, and even portable product configurations are possible.

Advances in the technology have been made, but sometimes these advances reveal even more challenges to be met.  Slowly, there is the realization that total dependency on hydrocarbon fuels is not a viable economic option.  SOFCs have a part in securing energy security for the country, improving the environment, greatly reducing urban pollution, and creating jobs in manufacturing as the technology advances.  They can also provide a cost-effective and performance-driven rival for other fuel cells, batteries, internal combustion engines, and coal- or oil-fired heat engines.

This study analyzes components of the SOFC, a technology offering the promise of greatly reduced environmental impact and excellent performance, price, and efficiency advantages.  Recent historic developments and approaches are described along with recent commercial developments and the state of the art.

REASONS FOR DOING THE STUDY
This report can also provide valuable information in terms of assessing investment in particular technologies and, therefore, should benefit investors directly or indirectly.  Others may find the broad discussions of energy policy and environmental impact to be of considerable value in understanding the opportunities and problems in the near- to mid-term.

INTENDED AUDIENCE
This report is intended to provide a unique analysis of the SOFC market and will be of interest to a variety of current and potential fuel cell users and integrators as well as competing battery, fuel cell, and conventional power generation makers. BCC Research wishes to thank those companies, government agencies, and university researchers that contributed information for this report.

SCOPE OF REPORT
This report discusses the North American, European, Far Eastern, and Rest-of-World market value.  Target markets are based on optimistic, pessimistic, and consensus alternatives.  This is compared to the conventional power generation target and peak shifting opportunities.  The current market is small, mainly limited to pilot projects or emerging niches.  By 2016, these pilots will be expanding into commercial implementations.  This 2016 market is also characterized in terms of optimistic, pessimistic, and consensus scenarios.

SOFC applications are described and analyzed.  The following applications are considered:

• Combined heat and power (CHP)
• Exotic
• Military
• Portable product power
• Remote power and auxiliary power  units (APUs)

SOFC companies are listed and detailed profiles prepared.

METHODOLOGY
An in-depth analysis of technical and business literature and published dissertations; a review of the history of the technologies involved; and interviews with industry experts, company representatives, federal government researchers, and university scientists provide an assessment of the outlook for alternative electrical power storage.  Other information sources include product literature from suppliers, scientific references, conferences, and patent searches.

Both primary and secondary research methodologies were used in preparing this report, which is based on interviews with commercial and government sources, literature reviews, and patent examinations.  Throughout the report, past market data is expressed in current dollars, and estimates and projections are in constant 2011 dollars.  Historic markets (2006) and the projected market for 2016 are provided. 

Most market summaries are based on a consensus scenario that assumes no unanticipated technical advances and no unexpected legislation.  When appropriate, pessimistic, consensus, and optimistic market scenarios characterize several developmental markets.  Totals are rounded to the nearest million dollars.  When appropriate, information from previously published sources is identified to allow a more detailed examination by clients.

INFORMATION SOURCES
Market assumptions used in this report include those based on updates of material from an earlier version of this analysis, as well as from BCC Research studies.  This report’s author prepared these studies as well.  He also edits the twice-monthly BCC Research newsletter, Fuel Cell Industry Report and Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Progress, which are uniquely valuable sources for this market.  Although many segments of the industry are well documented, much of this information is based on estimates, not hard facts.  The distinction between these estimates and hard facts can be vital, and wherever possible, sources are identified.

Table of Contents :

Chapter- 1: INTRODUCTION - Complimentary 4 $0
STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES
REASONS FOR DOING THE STUDY
INTENDED AUDIENCE
SCOPE OF REPORT
METHODOLOGY
INFORMATION SOURCES

Chapter- 2: SUMMARY 3 $150
Table 0 : GLOBAL SOFC MARKET SUMMARY BY TECHNOLOGY, BY APPLICATION, CONSENSUS SCENARIO
Figure 0 : GLOBAL SOFC MARKET SUMMARY BY TECHNOLOGY, BY APPLICATION, CONSENSUS SCENARIO
Table L 0 :

Chapter- 3: OVERVIEW 63 $1685
FUEL CELL BACKGROUND
SOLID OXIDE FUEL CELL BACKGROUND
GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS AND SUBSIDIES
SOFC RESEARCH

Chapter- 4: MARKETS BY APPLICATION 16 $428
COMBINED HEAT AND POWER
GENERATORS, REMOTE POWER, AND AUXILIARY POWER
PORTABLE PRODUCTS
MILITARY
EXOTIC

Chapter- 5: SOFC MARKET SUMMARY 25 $669
SOFC SEGMENTS ANALYZED
SOFC MARKET DRIVERS AND BASIS FOR SCENARIOS
SOFC MARKETS BY APPLICATION
SOFC MARKETS BY REGION
SOFC MARKETS BY PRODUCT
Table 18 : GLOBAL SOFC MARKET PROJECTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY, BY PRODUCT, CONSENSUS SCENARIO, THROUGH 2016
Figure 9 : GLOBAL SOFC MARKET PROJECTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY, BY PRODUCT, CONSENSUS SCENARIO, 2006-2016
Figure 10 : GLOBAL SOFC MARKET PROJECTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY BY PRODUCT IN 2011, CONSENSUS SCENARIO
Table L 10 :
Table 19 : GLOBAL SOFC MARKET PROJECTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY, BY PRODUCT, OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO, THROUGH 2016
Table 20 : GLOBAL SOFC MARKET PROJECTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY, BY PRODUCT, PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO, THROUGH 2016

Chapter- 6: INDUSTRY STRUCTURE AND COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS 42 $1123
COMPETITION
INDUSTRY LEADERS
CHANNELS OF DISTRIBUTION
PURCHASING INFLUENCES
TECHNOLOGY LIFE CYCLE
MANUFACTURING PROCESS
SOFC PATENTS
Table 31 : RECENT SOFC PATENT ASSIGNEES
Table 32 : SOFC PATENTS

Chapter- 7: COMPANY PROFILES 104 $2782
ACUMENTRICS HOLDING CORP.
ADAPTIVE MATERIALS, INC. (ULTRA ELECTRONICS)
ADELAN U.K., LTD.
ADVANCED MATERIALS TECHNOLOGIES (ACCURON TECHNOLOGIES)
ADVANCED MEASUREMENTS, INC.
ALPPS FUEL CELL SYSTEMS
ALSTOM TECHNOLOGY, INC.
ALTAIR NANOTECHNOLOGIES, INC.
BTU INTERNATIONAL, INC.
THE BABCOCK & WILCOX CO. (MCDERMOTT INTERNATIONAL)
BHP BILLITON, LTD.
BLOOM ENERGY
CELLTECH POWER, LLC
CERAMATEC, INC.
CERAMIC FUEL CELLS, LTD.
CERES POWER HOLDINGS
CHEVRON TECHNOLOGY VENTURES
CHUBU ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY, INC.
CMR PROTOTECH
CUMMINS POWER GENERATION, INC.
DANA CANADA CORP.
DELPHI CORP.
DIGITAL GAS, INC.
EBZ ENTWICKLUNGS
EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE
ELCOGEN AS
EMPRISE CORPORATION
ENERGIENED
ENRG, INC.
ENTWICKLUNGS UND VERTRIEBSGESELLSCHAFT BRENNSTOFFZELLE
FEV MOTORENTECHNIK GMBH
FIDERIS
FORSCHUNGSZENTRUM JUELICH
FRANKLIN ADVANCED MATERIALS
FUEL CELL TECHNOLOGIES
FUELCELL ENERGY, INC.
FUEL CELLS (SCOTLAND), LTD.
GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY
GEORGE WESTINGHOUSE RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY PARK
GLOBAL THERMOELECTRIC, INC. (FUELCELL ENERGY)
GOETA TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPER INTERNATIONAL
HABCO, INC.
HALDOR TOPSOE A/S/TOPSOE FUEL CELL
HC STARCK GMBH
HEXIS, LTD.
HTCERAMIX SA
HOSOKAWA POWDER TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
INTERTEC SOUTHWEST, INC.
K-STYLE ADVANCED CERAMICS CO., LTD.
KAINOS ENERGY CORP. (NANOGRAM)
KANSAI ELECTRIC POWER CO., INC.
LOGANENERGY CORP.
MATERIALS & SYSTEMS RESEARCH, INC.
MEIDENSHA CORP.
MERIDIAN ENERGY, LTD.
MERLONI TERMOSANITARI SPA (ARISTON THERMO GROUP)
MESOSCOPIC DEVICES LLC
MORPHIC TECHNOLOGIES
NANODYNAMICS, INC.
NATIONAL FUEL CELL RESEARCH CENTER
NEXTECH MATERIALS, LTD.
NGIMAT CO.
NGK INSULATORS, LTD.
NIPPON SHOKUBAI CO., LTD.
NIPPON TELEGRAPH & TELEPHONE CORP.
NOAH TECHNOLOGIES CORP.
ONTARIO POWER GENERATION, INC.
PLANSEE SE
PLUG POWER, INC.
POHANG IRON AND STEEL COMPANY (POSCO)
PRECISION FLOW TECHNOLOGIES
PRESIDIO COMPONENTS, INC.
PROTONEX
RAGAN TECHNOLOGIES, INC.
RISØ NATIONAL LABORATORY
ROLLS-ROYCE FUEL CELL SYSTEMS, LTD.
SAFCELL
SANDVIK
SHELL HYDROGEN BV
SIEMENS POWER GENERATION, INC.
SIENERGY SYSTEMS (ALLIED MINDS)
SOFCPOWER SLC
SOLID STATE ENERGY CONVERSION ALLIANCE
STANFORD MATERIALS CORP.
STATOIL ASA
STAXERA GMBH (SUNFIRE)
SULZER HEXIS AG
SUMITOMO CORP.
TOKYO GAS CO., LTD.
TOSOH CORP. CERAMICS DIVISION
TOTO, LTD.
TOYOTA
VAILLANT GMBH
VERSA POWER SYSTEMS, INC.
VIOLET FUEL CELL STICKS
WÄRTSILÄ CORP.
WATT FUEL CELL CORP.
WEBASTO AG
WORLDWIDE ENERGY, LLC
ZTEK CORP.

Chapter- 8: APPENDIX: U.S. PATENTS THAT MENTION SOFCS 15 $401
Table 34 : SOFC PATENTS

List of Tables
Summary Table : GLOBAL SOFC MARKET SUMMARY BY TECHNOLOGY, BY APPLICATION, CONSENSUS SCENARIO
Table 1 : SOFC COMPARED TO OTHER FUEL CELLS
Table 2 : SOFC GASKET MATERIALS
Table 3 : NIPPON SHOKUBAI ZIRCONIA SHEET SPECIFICATIONS
Table 4 : 2010 BUDGET HYDROGEN AND FUEL CELL TECHNOLOGIES FUNDING PROFILE BY SUBPROGRAM, 2009-2011
Table 5 : 2011 PROPOSED FISCAL FUEL CELL BUDGET
Table 6 : MAJOR INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH INTO PEM FUEL CELLS
Table 7 : PRELIMINARY TECHNICAL TARGETS: 1-10 KWE RESIDENTIAL COMBINED HEAT AND POWER FUEL CELLS OPERATING ON NATURAL GAS, 2008-2020
Table 8 : PRELIMINARY TECHNICAL TARGETS: 1-10 KWE FUEL CELL AUXILIARY POWER UNITS OPERATING ON STANDARD ULTRA-LOW SULFUR DIESEL FUEL, 2008-2020
Table 9 : SOFC OPTIMISTIC, PESSIMISTIC, AND CONSENSUS SCENARIOS, BY APPLICATION
Table 10 : SOFC OPTIMISTIC, PESSIMISTIC, AND CONSENSUS SCENARIOS, BY REGION
Table 11 : SOFC OPTIMISTIC, PESSIMISTIC, AND CONSENSUS SCENARIOS
Table 12 : GLOBAL SOFC MARKET PROJECTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY, BY APPLICATION, CONSENSUS SCENARIO, THROUGH 2016
Table 13 : GLOBAL SOFC MARKET PROJECTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY, BY APPLICATION, OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO, THROUGH 2016
Table 14 : GLOBAL SOFC MARKET PROJECTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY, BY APPLICATION, PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO, THROUGH 2016
Table 15 : GLOBAL SOFC MARKET PROJECTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY, BY REGION, CONSENSUS SCENARIO, THROUGH 2016
Table 16 : GLOBAL SOFC MARKET PROJECTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY, BY REGION, OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO
Table 17 : GLOBAL SOFC MARKET PROJECTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY, BY REGION, PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO, 2006-2016
Table 18 : GLOBAL SOFC MARKET PROJECTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY, BY PRODUCT, CONSENSUS SCENARIO, THROUGH 2016
Table 19 : GLOBAL SOFC MARKET PROJECTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY, BY PRODUCT, OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO, THROUGH 2016
Table 20 : GLOBAL SOFC MARKET PROJECTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY, BY PRODUCT, PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO, THROUGH 2016
Table 21 : BATTERIES THAT COULD COMPETE WITH SOFCS
Table 22 : SOFC COMPANIES AND STATUS
Table 23 : SOFC COMPANY SHIPMENT STATUS
Table 24 : LEADING SOFC CHP COMPANIES
Table 25 : LEADING SOFC GENERATORS, REMOTE, AND APU COMPANIES
Table 26 : LEADING MILITARY SOFC COMPANIES
Table 27 : LEADING PORTABLE SOFC COMPANIES
Table 28 : LEADING EXOTIC SOFC COMPANIES
Table 29 : SOFC DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS
Table 30 : SOFC PURCHASING INFLUENCES
Table 31 : RECENT SOFC PATENT ASSIGNEES
Table 32 : SOFC PATENTS
Table 33 : TOYOTA POWER GENERATING UNIT SPECIFICATIONS
Table 34 : SOFC PATENTS

List of Figures
Summary Figure : GLOBAL SOFC MARKET SUMMARY BY TECHNOLOGY, BY APPLICATION, CONSENSUS SCENARIO
Figure 1 : PLANAR SOFC CONFIGURATION
Figure 2 : THIN-FILM SOFC CONFIGURATION
Figure 3 : TUBULAR SOFC CONFIGURATION
Figure 4 : FUELCELL ENERGY SOFC/T HYBRID SYSTEM AND TORPEDO CONFIGURATION
Figure 5 : GLOBAL SOFC MARKET PROJECTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY, BY APPLICATION, CONSENSUS SCENARIO, 2006-2016
Figure 6 : GLOBAL SOFC MARKET PROJECTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY BY APPLICATION IN 2011, CONSENSUS SCENARIO
Figure 7 : GLOBAL SOFC MARKET PROJECTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY, BY REGION, CONSENSUS SCENARIO, 2006-2016
Figure 8 : GLOBAL SOFC MARKET PROJECTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY BY REGION IN 2011, CONSENSUS SCENARIO
Figure 9 : GLOBAL SOFC MARKET PROJECTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY, BY PRODUCT, CONSENSUS SCENARIO, 2006-2016
Figure 10 : GLOBAL SOFC MARKET PROJECTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY BY PRODUCT IN 2011, CONSENSUS SCENARIO
Figure 11 : DRIVING DOWN COSTS FOR FUEL CELLS (ORDER OF MAGNITUDE COST REDUCTION)
Figure 12 : SOFC MANUFACTURING TREE
Figure 13 : SOFC MANUFACTURING FLOW