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South Africa Power Report

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Published Date: Nov, 2012
Format: PDF
No of Pages: 51
 
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  • Abstract
  • Table of Contents

The South Africa Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The South Africa Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks South Africa's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in South Africa
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
Coverage

BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview
The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts
The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.
Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for:
Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.
Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview
This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Ratings
BMI's Power Risk/reward Ratings provide fully comparable ratings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

BMI Industry View ......... 5
SWOT Analysis .... 6
South Africa Power SWOT  6
Regional Industry Overview .... 7
MEA Power: Strong Fundamentals Support Sanguine Outlook ......... 7
Table: Top 10 Infrastructure Projects Globally in 2011 ..... 9
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 12
South Africa Snapshot  12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data ..... 12
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector ....... 12
South Africa Forecast Scenario ..... 13
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity... 13
Table: South Africa Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016 . 13
Table: South Africa Total Electricity Generation Long Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021 ......... 15
Table: South Africa Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016 ..... 17
Table: South Africa Electricity Generating Capacity Long Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021 ... 18
Electricity Consumption.. 25
Table: South Africa Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016 ........ 25
Table: South Africa Total Electricity Consumption Long Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021 ...... 25
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports....... 27
Table: South Africa Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts 2010-2016 .... 27
Table: South Africa Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021  27
Table: South Africa Trade Data And Forecasts,2010-2016 ........ 27
Table: South Africa Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2015-2021 .... 27
Key Policies/Market Structure ........ 29
Regulation and Competition ..... 29
Sustainable Energy Policies...... 30
Pricing ........ 31
Power Risk/Reward Ratings .. 32
MEA Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings . 32
Table: MEA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) .... 37
South Africa’s Power Risk/Reward Rating.... 38
Rewards ...... 38
Risks . 38
Competitive Landscape ........ 40
Company Monitor ........ 41
Eskom ......... 41
Glossary of Terms ....... 44
Table: Glossary of Terms  44
Methodology And Sources .... 45
Industry Forecasts ..... 45
Power Industry – Data Methodology .. 46
Generation and Consumption Data .... 46
South Africa Power Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Electricity Generation Capacity Data . 47
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ......... 47
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators  49
Sources ....... 50

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product id: 124971, price: INR 65446.09, BMI Power

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