Digital Power Electronics: Worldwide Forecasts

Abstract
Table of Contents

Digital Power Electronics: Worldwide Forecasts, Third Edition

Topics covered include:

Market Drivers for Digital Power Management and Control
Market Share, Market Penetration Rates, and Product Life Cycle
Worldwide Application Forecasts
Worldwide Power Supply Forecasts for External AC-DC, Embedded AC-DC, DC-DC Modules, Embedded DC-DC, Telecom Rectifiers and External DC-DC, Lighting Ballasts, and Inverters
Worldwide Digital IC Forecasts for Controller ICs, Converter Management ICs, and System Management ICs
Implications of Digital Power for DC-DC Modules
Price Parity for Digital Power ICs

Executive Summary

The digital power landscape is undergoing rapid change. Adaptive controllers, parameter estimation and sophisticated control algorithms have become much more economically reasonable to implement in a variety of systems. But there is still a “perceived expense” of going digital, compared to using similar bandwidth analog components. In certain applications, however, digital penetration is already exceeding 50%.

Projections of when digital power management and control will become a “mainstream” technology vary, from 2015 to 2018. Availability, standardization, longevity and customer-recognized value are considered requirements to be recognized as mainstream. Adding to a slower adoption rate is the current economic crisis that makes it more difficult for companies to raise money while trying to expand product offerings. Still, some of the smaller companies are shipping in the millions of quantities in markets/applications where the solution cost is at parity with competing analog solutions.

Major shifts in market share of each IC type have been occurring since 2005, and these are expected to continue through 2014. During the “emerging years” of digital (2005-2008), sales were less differentiated between IC types, particularly for ac-dc power supplies and dc-dc modules. Beginning in 2009, however, we expect changes in the market that will alter the mix more quickly through the remainder of the forecast period. These shifts can be analyzed as part of the traditional “Product Life Cycle Curve,” with digital power just entering the “Growth” phase, and Maturity expected around 2014.

The worldwide digital IC market (including controller ICs, converter ICs and system management ICs) is expected to grow from over 5 billion units in 2009 to 12.3 billion units in 2014, a compound annual growth rate of 19.8%. This will be spread out over a diverse market of power supplies, including external ac-dc and embedded ac-dc power supplies, dc-dc modules, embedded dc-dc converters, telecom rectifiers and external dc-dc, lighting ballasts and inverters. Price declines will only begin to slow by 2013, so dollar sales will experience a healthy growth rate of just over 29% up to this point.

External AC-DC and Lighting Ballasts, in particular, are large markets that are gaining market share, or at least holding their own. Together, these segments will account for 57% of the Digital Power Supply unit market in 2009, increasing to 61% in 2014. Lighting Ballasts will also help drive the sales of digital Converter ICs, which although losing share to Controller ICs, are still expected to be a good-sized market.

Although digital solutions are still primarily being used in high-performance applications, the pervasive emphasis on energy efficiency is pushing digital from high-end-only into the mainstream. Digital control is now implemented in just about all application segments, from catalog power supplies to power supplies used in medical, solid-state lighting and consumer devices. It is still rare to find a “pure digital solution,” however.

In addition, power architectures are evolving, with the Centralized Control Architecture (CCA) being used increasingly in higher-end applications, particularly communications and server systems. The use of power factor correction (PFC), MicroTCA, Power-over-Ethernet (PoE), and multi-phase converters is also driving the adoption of digital control solutions.

The digital IC market is responding to these application-driven trends with some shifts of its own. Although Converter Management ICs will remain the largest cumulative Digital IC segment over the forecast period, they are expected to slowly lose share to Controller ICs and System Management ICs, due to the “merging” of digital functions. Converter Management ICs are located within the individual power converters and handle monitoring and communications functions between the converter and the board-level power management ICs. Many of these functions are increasingly being handled by system management ICs external to the power supply. This is a major shift in system design, which will lead to fewer “Converter Management” ICs and more “System Management” ICs.

With broader implementation in applications, along with expanded digital IC functionality, digital power management and control is entering a long-awaited “mainstream adoption” period. The next ten years will see increased use of digital control, as applications demand power functions for which digital is particularly suited.

Table of Contents:

Introduction 5
Digital Market Drivers 6
Pricing 7
Market Penetration Rates 8
Application Drivers and Forecasts 17
External AC-DC 21
Embedded AC-DC 23
DC-DC Modules 26
Embedded DC-DC 28
Telecom Rectifiers and External DC-DC 31
Lighting Ballasts 32
Inverters 33
Worldwide Power Product Forecasts 34
Worldwide Digital IC Forecasts 39
Digital IC Assumptions and Methodology 42
Controller ICs 46
Converter ICs 47
System ICs 50
Appendix A: Digital Power: Implications for DC-DC Modules 54
Appendix B: Price Parity for Digital Power ICs 57

List of Tables

Table 1 – Cumulative Worldwide Unit Sales, by IC Type (billions of units) 9
Table 2 – Worldwide Digital IC Market, Market Share Shifts by Percentage 11
Table 3 – Worldwide Power Supply Market (SAM), External AC-DC, by Application (millions of units) 21
Table 4 – Worldwide Power Supply Market (SAM), Embedded AC-DC, by Application (millions of units) 25
Table 5 – Worldwide Power Supply Market (SAM), DC-DC Modules, by Application (millions of units) 27
Table 6 – Worldwide Power Supply Market (SAM), Embedded DC-DC (millions of units) 29
Table 7 – Worldwide Power Supply Market (SAM), Embedded DC-DC, Multi-phase by Application (millions of units) 30
Table 8 – Worldwide Power Supply Market (SAM), Telecom Rectifiers and External DC-DC (millions of units) 31
Table 9 – Worldwide Power Supply Market (SAM), Lighting Ballasts, by Application (millions of units) 32
Table 10 – Worldwide Power Supply Market (SAM), Inverters, by Application (millions of units) 33
Table 11 – Worldwide Digital Power Supply Market (SAM), by Product (millions of units) 35
Table 12 – Worldwide Digital IC Market, by IC Type (millions of units) 44
Table 13 – Worldwide Digital Power Supply Market, by Product, Converter ICs (millions of units) 47
Table 14 – Worldwide Digital Power Supply Market, Embedded AC-DC, Converter ICs (millions of units) 49
Table 15 – Worldwide Digital Power Supply Market, DC-DC Modules, Telecom Rectifiers & DC-DC, Lighting Ballasts, Converter ICs (millions of units) 50
Table 16 – Worldwide Digital Power Supply Market, by Product, System ICs (millions of units) 50
Table 17 – Worldwide Digital Power Supply Market, Products and Applications, System ICs (millions of units) 52

List of Figures

Figure 1 – Five Levels of Digital Power 10
Figure 2 – Worldwide Digital IC Market, All Power Supplies, Market Share Shifts by Percentage 11
Figure 3 – Worldwide Digital IC Market, AC-DC & DC-DC Only, Market Share Shifts by Percentage 12
Figure 4 – Product Life Cycle Curve for Digital Power ICs 14
Figure 5 – Worldwide Digital IC Market, All Power Supplies by IC Type (market share) 15
Figure 6 – Worldwide Digital IC Market, AC-DC & DC-DC Products Only, by IC Type (market share) 16
Figure 7 – Worldwide Power Supply Market (SAM), External AC-DC, by Application (market share) 22
Figure 8 – Worldwide Power Supply Market (SAM), Embedded AC-DC, by Application (market share) 26
Figure 9 – Worldwide Power Supply Market (SAM), DC-DC Modules, by Application (market share) 28
Figure 10 – Worldwide Power Supply Market (SAM), Embedded DC-DC, (market share) 29
Figure 11 – Worldwide Digital Power Supply Market (SAM), by Product (market share percentages) 36
Figure 12 – Worldwide Digital Power Supply Market (SAM), by Product (AC-DC & DC-DC), (market penetration rates) 38
Figure 13 – Worldwide Digital Power Supply Market (SAM), by Product (Telecom, Lighting Ballasts & Inverters), (market penetration rates) 39
Figure 14 – Digital Controller IC Functional Taxonomy 41
Figure 15 – Worldwide Digital IC Market, by IC Type (millions of units) 45
Figure 16 – Worldwide Digital IC Market, by IC Type (market share percentages) 45
Figure 17 – Worldwide Digital Power Supply Market, by Product, Converter ICs (market share percentages) 48
Figure 18 – Worldwide Embedded AC-DC & DC-DC Module Markets, Converter ICs and System ICs (unit market share) 53
Figure 19 – Pricing Comparison for Analog and Digital Controller ICs 57
Figure 20 – Digital Power IC Price Projections to 2012 59

Companies Mentioned

Akros Silicon
Analog Devices
Cambridge Semiconductor
CHiL Semiconductor
Cypress Semiconductor
Dell
Digital Power
Eltek-Valere
Ericsson Power Modules
Fraunhofer Institute
Green Plug
IBM
Infineon/Primarion
Intel
Intersil/Zilker Labs
iWatt
Linear Technology
Maxim
Mouser Electronics
National Science Council, Taiwan
National Semiconductor
PCI Industrial Computer Manufacturers Group
Power-One
Powervation
Silicon Labs
Summit Microelectronics
SynQor
Texas Instruments
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Spain
Vicor