Vehicle Electrification Worldwide Forecasts First Edition

Vehicle Electrification: Worldwide Forecasts, First Edition

This report presents worldwide forecasts for two types of vehicle electrification: Powertrain Systems and On-Board Systems. Both sets of forecasts are based on the same Application segments, but the systems and power levels diverge from there. The wattage breakouts for Powertrain Inverter Modules are as follows: Small Task-Oriented Vehicles <5kW 5-25kW Heavy-Duty Trucks >100kW Commercial Vehicles 26-100kW >100kW Off-Road Vehicles 26-100kW >100kW Passenger Vehicles 5-25kW 26-100kW Light Trucks 5-25kW 26-100kW The wattages for Powertrain DC-DC Converters are: Small Task-Oriented Vehicles <1kW Heavy-Duty Trucks 1-2.4kW 2.5-4.9kW 5kW+ Commercial Vehicles 1-2.4kW 2.5-4.9kW Off-Road Vehicles 1-2.4kW 2.5-4.9kW 5kW+ Passenger Vehicles 1-2.4kW 2.5-4.9kW Light Trucks 1-2.4kW 2.5-4.9kW The wattages for On-Board Auxiliary Power Inverters are: Recreational Vehicles 150W-999W 1,000W-1,999W 2,000W+ Small Task-Oriented Vehicles 150W-499W 500W-999W 1,000W+ Emergency Vehicles 150W-999W 1,000W-1,999W 2,000W+ Heavy-Duty Trucks 150W-999W 1,000W-1,999W 2,000W+ The wattages for On-Board Motor Drive Inverters are: Off-Road Vehicles 1kW and Below >1kW Recreational Vehicles 1kW and Below >1kW Small Task-Oriented Vehicles 1kW and Below Commercial Vehicles 1kW and Below >1kW

Executive Summary

Like many emerging technologies, vehicle electrification has been around for a long time, but until recently, the technology has not really “taken off.” Even though the automotive (i.e. passenger cars and light trucks) portion of the vehicle electrification market is expected to be large, the non-automotive segments represent a potential $893 million opportunity worldwide, growing to approximately $2 billion in 2014, a compound annual growth rate of 17.1%. Passenger hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs)s get a lot of press, but they do not necessarily represent the best opportunity for suppliers attempting to get into the vehicle electrification
market. Environmental regulations and fuel efficiency do provide a strong stimulus to adopt HEVs and plug-in hybrids, but they do not benefit from the technology as much as the other vehicle types. The automotive market is also very price-sensitive, and vehicle electrification is still an expensive proposition.

The economic and business forces affecting these markets is currently in flux. US automakers are focusing more on hybrid-electric and electric vehicles, due to the provisions of the US Congressional “Financial Stimulus” package. One of the most critical components needed for the adoption of hybrid-electric, plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicles is batteries and their concurrent battery management systems. The financial stimulus package allocates $300 million for a federal fleet of hybrid and electric vehicles but more importantly, it also provides $2 billion for grants that would support the manufacturing of advanced vehicle batteries and components. In addition, the emphasis on infrastructure spending in this and many other national fiscal stimulus packages will be good for some of the non-automotive markets discussed in this report, such as heavy-duty trucks.

Additional factors are pointing toward increased adoption of electric and hybrid-electric vehicles in a variety of transportation markets. For example, WestStart saw 2008 as the “first commercial volumes” of hybrid trucks. The trends driving demand for vehicle electrification include:
(1) Regulations – With an emphasis on “green” technology, the number of regulatory incentives and requirements favoring electric and hybrid-electric vehicles is increasing, particularly in the United States. This will be further supported by national fiscal stimulus packages.
(2) Cost – Vehicle electrification technology is improving and getting more cost-effective.
(3) Underlying Economics – Adopting electric and hybrid-electric technologies is helping owners save money; e.g. truckers can save money with hybrid technologies.
(4) Gasoline Prices – Prices have been volatile over the past year. In North America, the steep fall in fuel prices has restored some profitability to truck operators and their ability to replace aging equipment, even as it has reduced the demand for passenger HEVs. Still, China, India and other developing regions are using petroleum resources, making shortages more likely in the
future.

Regulations, in particular, will help drive adoption of electric and hybrid-electric vehicles. The California Air Resources Board (CARB), has strict emissions control standards that limit gasoline and liquified petroleum gas vehicles. Their “Off-Road Large Spark-Ignition (Gasoline and LPG) Equipment Activities” covers forklifts, specialty vehicles, airport service vehicles, large turf care equipment and a wide array of other agricultural, construction and general industrial equipment. CARB has also issued an advisory that pertains to golf carts, sweepers, turf care equipment and utility vehicles. Dealing with hydraulic fluids is another factor driving adoption of electric technologies, particularly in turf care and construction vehicles. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has regulations regarding such fluids, covered under “Municipal Solid Waste.” The document states that, “Used oil must be recycled or disposed of properly by local waste management authorities or automotive repair shops.” The definition of “used oil” includes engine lubrication oil, hydraulic fluids and gear oils. Vehicle electrification can be a cost-effective way to get rid of
the problems associated with hydraulics.

Looking at powertrain systems, a number of factors are driving the adoption of vehicle electrification technologies, including environmental regulations, stop-start function, varying loads, fuel efficiency, and less price-sensitive markets (see Table 1). These differ by vehicle type, with some applications being more appropriate candidates for electrification than others. Environmental regulations and fuel efficiency are driving nearly all vehicle applications. The two most important technology drivers for powertrain vehicle electrification are stop-start function and varying loads. Commercial Vehicles and Off-Road Vehicles particularly benefit
from stop-start functionality; while Small Task-Oriented Vehicles, Heavy-Duty Trucks and Off- Road Vehicles have varying loads. Most of these applications are less price-sensitive, as well. These and other factors went into the assumptions for the forecasts included in this report. Looking at trends in power management ICs can also help gauge the readiness of the vehicle
electrification market. Even with the economic downturn, power ICs are expected to be fairly resilient due to the emphasis placed on greater power efficiency within many applications. Automotive is one of the largest markets for power ICs, and the semiconductor market supplying hybrid powertrains is expected to increase from $384 million in 2008 to $1.3 billion 2015,
mainly in power devices but also in analog microcontrollers and sensors. The research firm believes that “electrification in powertrains will deliver significant opportunities for semiconductor vendors,” with 38% annual growth for full and mild hybrid powertrains from
2007 to 2012.

Table of Contents:

Introduction 5
Assumptions & Methodology  8
Pricing Background 15
Application Forecasts 16
Passenger Vehicles & Light Trucks (Automotive) 24
Small Task-Oriented Vehicles 25
Commercial Vehicles 26
Heavy-Duty Trucks 27
Off-Road Vehicles 30
Emergency Vehicles 31
Recreational Vehicles 32
Vehicle System Forecasts 32
Auxiliary Power Inverters 40
Motor Drive Inverters 40
Powertrain Inverter Modules 41
Powertrain DC-DC Converters 41
Wattage Forecasts 45
Powertrain Inverter Modules 46
Powertrain DC-DC Converters 50
On-Board Auxiliary Power Inverters 53
On-Board Motor Drive Inverters 54
Appendix A – Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Battery Developments 60
Appendix B – Plug-in Hybrid-Electric Vehicle Adoption Outlook 63

List of Tables:

Table 1 – Vehicle Electrification Technology Drivers 7
Table 2 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, by Application (TAM) (millions of units)  17
Table 3 – Worldwide Auxiliary Power Inverter Applications, Total Available Market (millions of units) 17
Table 4 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, by Application (market penetration rates)18
Table 5 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, Auxiliary Power Inverter Applications (market penetration rates) 20
Table 6 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, by Application (SAM) (millions of units)  20
Table 7 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, Auxiliary Power Inverter Applications (SAM) (millions of units) 21
Table 8 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, by Application (SAM) (millions of $) 24
Table 9 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, Automotive vs Non-Automotive (millions of $) 24
Table 10 – Truck Classifications and Examples 29
Table 11 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, by Vehicle System (millions of units)  33
Table 12 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, by Application and Converter Type (millions of units) 35
Table 13 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, by Converter Type and Application (millions of $) 38
Table 14 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, by Powertrain Inverter Module Wattages, All Application, (millions of units) 46
Table 15 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, by Powertrain Inverter Module Wattages, All Applications Excluding Automotive (millions of units). 49
Table 16 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, by Powertrain Inverter Module Wattages, Automotive Only (millions of units) 49
Table 17 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, by Powertrain DCDC Converter Wattages, All Applications (millions of units) 50
Table 18 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, by Powertrain DCDC Converter Wattages, All Applications Excluding Automotive (millions of units) 51
Table 19 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, by Powertrain DCDC Converter Wattages, Automotive Only (millions of units) 51
Table 20 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, by On-Board Auxiliary Power Wattages (millions of units) 53
Table 21 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, by On-Board Motor Drive Inverter Wattages 54

List of Figures:

Figure 1 – Worldwide Auxiliary Power Inverters by Application (2009 units and ASPs) 11
Figure 2 – Worldwide Motor Driver Inverters by Application (2009 units and ASPs) 12
Figure 3 – Worldwide Powertrain Inverter Modules by Application (2009 units and ASPs) 13
Figure 4 – Worldwide Powertrain DC-DC Converters by Application (2009 units and ASPs) 14
Figure 5 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, by Application (market penetration rates) 19
Figure 6 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market (2009 dollar sales)  21
Figure 7 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, by Application (SAM), (dollar market shares) 23
Figure 8 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, by Converter Type (unit market shares) 34
Figure 9 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, Non-Automotive Applications (2009 dollar sales) 37
Figure 10 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, by Converter Type (dollar market share)  39
Figure 11 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, Auxiliary Power Inverters by Application (dollar CAGRs) 42
Figure 12 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, Motor Drive Inverters by Application (dollar CAGRs) 43
Figure 13 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, Powertrain Inverter Modules by Application (dollar CAGRs) 44
Figure 14 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, Powertrain DC-DC Converters by Application (dollar CAGRs) 45
Figure 15 – Powertrain Inverter Module Wattages, All Applications (unit market shares)  47
Figure 16 – Powertrain Inverter Module Wattages, All Applications Excluding Automotive (unit market shares) 48
Figure 17 – Utility HEV System (Eaton Corp.) 52
Figure 18 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, Auxiliary Power Inverters (2009 unit SAM and wattages) 55
Figure 19 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, Motor Drive Inverters (2009 unit SAM and wattages) 56
Figure 20 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, Powertrain Inverter Modules (2009 unit SAM and wattages) 57
Figure 21 – Worldwide Vehicle Electrification Market, Powertrain DC-DC Converters (2009 unit SAM and wattages) 58