Algeria Agribusiness Report

 Published On: Aug, 2016 |    No of Pages: 62 |  Published By: BMI Agribusiness | Format: PDF
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BMI View: Algeria will be unable to feed its growing levels of wheat and milk consumption as the country remains a major importer of food products. However, the government's new emphasis on the improvement of food self-sufficiency is helping to revive the sectors. While higher government support is likely to be positive for productivity and product quality in the medium term, Algeria will remain a key importer of wheat and dairy products in the coming years. The country is increasingly expanding trading links with countries such as Brazil and India, away from its traditional suppliers such as France, especially for dairy and beef products.

Key BMI Forecasts
-Wheat production growth to 2019/20: 40.7% to 2.7mn tonnes. This growth rate is due to base effects, as production dropped by 41% in 2014/15. Wheat production will struggle to grow and reach new record levels in the coming years.
-Milk production growth to 2019/20: 13.3% to 4.1mn tonnes. Our projections are based on the government's support for the sector and its plan to develop it by improving breeding methods as well as restructuring and further privatising segments of the agriculture industry.
-Milk powder consumption growth to 2020: 6.3% to 200,000 tonnes. Algeria will remain one of the largest importers of milk powder, due to an elevated consumption per capita.
-BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD19.92bn in 2016, up 9.6% y-o-y (growth to average 3.8% annually between 2016 and 2020).
-2016 real GDP growth: 1.9%, down from 2.3% in 2015; predicted to average 2.5% over 2016-2020).
-2016 Consumer price inflation: 5.0%, same than in 2015; predicted to average 4.3% over 2016-2020).

BMI Industry View ...... 7
SWOT ...... 9
Agribusiness . 9
Industry Forecast ..... 11
Grains Outlook .. 11
Latest Updates .. 11
Table: Algeria - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook . . 12
Table: Algeria - Risks To Grains Outlook 12
Structural Trends ..... 13
Table: Grains Production & Consumption (Algeria 2013-2020) . 16
Dairy Outlook .... 17
Latest Updates .. 17
Table: Algeria - Dairy Production & Consumption Outlook . 17
Table: Risks To Outlook . . . 18
Structural Trends ..... 18
Table: Dairy Production & Consumption (Algeria 2013-2020) . . . 22
Commodities Price Analysis .. 23
Commodities Forecasts ...... 23
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts . . . 23
Upstream Analysis ... 25
Africa Machinery Outlook .. 25
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions . 25
Africa GM Outlook .... 31
Africa Fertiliser Outlook .... 38
Downstream Analysis ..... 45
Food .. 45
Latest Updates .. 45
Structural Trends ..... 46
Table: Food Sales (Algeria 2013-2020) . . 47
Regional Overview ... 50
Middle East & Africa Regional Overview ... 50
Demographic Forecast ... 56
Demographic Outlook 56
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Algeria 1990-2025) 57
Table: Key Population Ratios (Algeria 1990-2025) 57
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Algeria 1990-2025) . . 58
Table: Population By Age Group (Algeria 1990-2025) . 58
Table: Population By Age Group % (Algeria 1990-2025) . . . 59
Methodology ...... 61
Industry Forecast Methodology 61
Sector-Specific Methodology .... 62
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