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BMI View: Algeria will be unable to feed its growing levels of wheat and milk
consumption as the country remains a major importer of food products. However,
the government's new emphasis on the improvement of food self-sufficiency is
helping to revive the sectors. While higher government support is likely to be
positive for productivity and product quality in the medium term, Algeria will
remain a key importer of wheat and dairy products in the coming years. The
country is increasingly expanding trading links with countries such as Brazil
and India, away from its traditional suppliers such as France, especially for
dairy and beef products.
Key BMI Forecasts
-Wheat production growth to 2019/20: 40.7% to 2.7mn tonnes. This growth rate is
due to base effects, as production dropped by 41% in 2014/15. Wheat production
will struggle to grow and reach new record levels in the coming years.
-Milk production growth to 2019/20: 13.3% to 4.1mn tonnes. Our projections are
based on the government's support for the sector and its plan to develop it by
improving breeding methods as well as restructuring and further privatising
segments of the agriculture industry.
-Milk powder consumption growth to 2020: 6.3% to 200,000 tonnes. Algeria will
remain one of the largest importers of milk powder, due to an elevated
consumption per capita.
-BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD19.92bn in 2016, up 9.6% y-o-y
(growth to average 3.8% annually between 2016 and 2020).
-2016 real GDP growth: 1.9%, down from 2.3% in 2015; predicted to average 2.5%
-2016 Consumer price inflation: 5.0%, same than in 2015; predicted to average
4.3% over 2016-2020).