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BMI View: Australia's agribusiness sector will see its exports grow in the
coming years, driven by the rise in production, its reputation as a reliable
exporter of safe and quality products and strong external demand. However, the
sector's future success will be somewhat held back by rising production costs
and profitability issues that are weighing on the production outlook. Moreover,
the country's vulnerability to extreme weather events will grow in the coming
years with climate change, making agricultural production even more volatile.
Australia has to face rising competition coming from lower-cost producers that
aim at supplying the attractive markets in Asia and the Middle East. Australia
has signed a number of trade deals with key importing countries, including the
Trans Pacific Partnership, which will help its competitiveness remain
satisfactory. Australia will also need to step up investment in some parts of
its supply chain in order to improve its competitiveness and reach a new level
of innovation, efficiencies and exports.
-Beef production growth to 2019/20: -9.9% to 2.3mn tonnes. The negative growth
over our forecast period is mainly due to high base effects (production reached
a record in 2013/14) and because output will decrease over 2015-2017 as farmers
rebuild their herds. Beef production will reaccelerate beyond 2018.
-Milk production growth to 2019/20: 7.4% to 10.4mn tonnes. Milk production will
grow only modestly in the coming years as the sector struggles to expand the
herd, while yields are already elevated and will see limited further growth.
Meanwhile, the processing sector is very dynamic and will grow strongly in the
coming years, requiring more domestic supply.
-Poultry consumption growth to 2020: 19.3% to 1.27mn tonnes. Poultry consumption
will prove to be the strongest over the coming years, as consumers continue to
choose the meat as a healthier alternative to beef. As such, we forecast
consumption per capita to rise to 50kg in 2020, compared with 39kg back in 2010.
-2016 BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD40.91bn; down from USD41.31bn
in 2015; growth expected to average 2.2% annually between 2016 and 2020.
-2016 real GDP growth: 2.4%; down from 2.5% in 2015. Forecast to average 2.3%
from 2016 to 2020.
-2016 consumer price index: 1.0% change y-o-y ave; down from 1.5% in 2015.
Forecast to average 2.0% from 2016 to 2020.
-2016 central bank policy rate: 1.50% eop; down from 2.00% in 2015. Forecast to
average 2.10% from 2016 to 2020.