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BMI View: We hold a cautious outlook towards the Bangladesh agriculture
sector over the short term. The limited amount of arable land available for
acreage expansion, as well as poor safety standards, will constrain growth over
our forecast period. Structural problems still plague the industry, in
particular the logistical challenges of food transportation within the country.
Over the long term, we believe there is much more room for growth and
improvement in sub-sectors such as grains and livestock. That said, as the
agricultural sector in Bangladesh employs close to 70% of the working population
but contributes only 20% of the country's GDP, there is an obvious need for
improvement in efficiency of operations. GM food policy is also an interesting
area to look at, as Bangladesh is undoubtedly one of the most open countries to
GM food cultivation in Asia.
■ Wheat production growth to 2019/20: 1.37mn tonnes. The main driver behind this
growth will be an improvement in yields. Wheat cultivation remains a preferred
option for non-irrigated land given the low requirement for input use (fertiliser,
insecticides and labour).
■ Sugar production growth to 2019/20: 146,000 tonnes. Production will fail to
return to the levels
reached in the early 2000s. With farmers increasingly planting more profitable
cash crops, such as cotton, we do not foresee sugar production to pick up
significantly any time soon.
■ Poultry production growth to 2019/20: 244,000 tonnes. Better economic
conditions and higher disposable incomes will help to drive demand for meat.
Better disease control is also expected to support the recovery of the sector.
■ 2016 real GDP growth: 6.5%, same level as in 2015. Predicted to average 6.6%
y-o-y between 2016 and 2020.
■ 2016 consumer price inflation: 6.2% y-o-y average, down from 6.4% y-o-y in
2015. Predicted to average 6.2% from 2016 to 2020.
■ BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD19.0bn in 2016 (up 6.6% y-o-y from
USD17.8bn in 2015; forecast to grow annually by 5.9% on average from 2016 to
BMI Industry View ....... 7SWOT .. 10Agribusiness ... 10Industry Forecast ...... 12Rice Outlook ... 12Table: Bangladesh - Rice Production & Consumption Outlook . . . . 12Table: Key Risks To Outlook . . . . 12Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Bangladesh 2012-2020) 17Grains Outlook ....... 18Table: Bangladesh - Grains Production & Consumption Outlook . 18Table: Key Risks To Outlook . . . . 18Table: Grains Production & Consumption (Bangladesh 2012-2020) . . . . 22Sugar Outlook . 23Table: Bangladesh - Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook . . 23Table: Key Risks To Outlook . . . . 23Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Bangladesh 2012-2020) . . . . . 27Livestock Outlook .... 28Table: Bangladesh - Livestock Production & Consumption Outlook . . . . 28Table: Key Risks To Outlook . . . . 28Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Bangladesh 2014-2020) . . . 31Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Bangladesh 2015-2020) 32Commodities Price Analysis ..... 33Global - Global Commodities Strategy . 33Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts . . . . 33Upstream Analysis .... 35Asia Machinery Outlook ... 35Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares . 39Asia GM Outlook ..... 42Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares) . . . 45Asia Fertiliser Outlook ..... 47Regional Overview .... 52Competitive Landscape .... 58Table: Bangladesh - Major Agribusiness Companies . . 58Demographic Forecast ..... 59Table: Population Headline Indicators (Bangladesh 1990-2025) . . 60Table: Key Population Ratios (Bangladesh 1990-2025) . . . . . 60Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Bangladesh 1990-2025) . 61Table: Population By Age Group (Bangladesh 1990-2025) . . 61Table: Population By Age Group % (Bangladesh 1990-2025) . . . . . 62Methodology ...... 64Industry Forecast Methodology 64Sector-Specific Methodology .... 65