Pakistan Agribusiness Report

 Published On: Aug, 2016 |    No of Pages: 63 |  Published By: BMI Agribusiness | Format: PDF
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BMI View: There are numerous challenges facing producers of all commodities in Pakistan, chief among them a dire security situation, erratic power supply, lack of available finance and vulnerability to extreme weather events. Nevertheless, the government has taken some positive steps to improve the availability of higher-quality seeds for rice, wheat and corn, which should raise yields in the medium term. We also note that there have been recent positive developments in the country's energy sector that, if sustained, could prove beneficial for cotton and rice producers in particular. Our expectation for rising prices out to 2020 also gives some grounds for optimism regarding cotton exports.

Key BMI Forecasts
-Cotton consumption growth to 2020: -1.5% to 10.4mn 480lb bales. High base effects and a local supply shock in the early years of our forecast period will see a decrease in cotton demand.
-Wheat production growth to 2019/20: 2.5% to 26.6mn tonnes. Production growth will be modest despite government efforts to reduce input costs .
-2016 real GDP growth: 4.7%. Up from 4.2% in 2015. Forecast to grow annually by 4.2% to 2020.
-Consumer price inflation (ave): 4.5% in 2016 (down from 4.6% in 2015).

BMI Industry View ...... 7
SWOT .... 10
Agribusiness ...... 10
Industry Forecast ..... 12
Rice Outlook ...... 12
Latest Updates .. 12
Table: Pakistan - Rice Production & Consumption Outlook . 12
Table: Risks To Outlook . . . 13
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Pakistan 2012-2020) . . . 15
Grains Outlook .. 16
Latest Updates .. 16
Table: Pakistan - Grains Production & Consumption Outlook . . . 17
Table: Risks To Outlook . . . 18
Structural Trends ..... 18
Table: Grains Production & Consumption (Pakistan 2012-2020) 20
Cotton Outlook ... 22
Latest Updates .. 22
Table: Pakistan - Cotton Production & Consumption Outlook . . . 22
Table: Risks To Outlook . . . 23
Structural Trends ..... 23
Table: Cotton Production & Consumption (Pakistan 2012-2020) 25
Commodity Price Analysis ..... 26
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 26
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts . . . 26
Upstream Analysis ... 28
Asia Machinery Outlook .... 28
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares . 33
Asia GM Outlook 35
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares) . . . 39
Asia Fertiliser Outlook ...... 40
Downstream Analysis ..... 46
Food .. 46
Latest Updates .. 46
Structural Trends ..... 47
Table: Food Sales (Pakistan 2013-2020) . 48
Regional Overview ... 50
Competitive Landscape .. 56
Table: Main Agricultural Companies 56
Demographic Forecast ... 57
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Pakistan 1990-2025) . . . . 58
Table: Key Population Ratios (Pakistan 1990-2025) . . . . 58
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Pakistan 1990-2025) . 59
Table: Population By Age Group (Pakistan 1990-2025) 59
Table: Population By Age Group % (Pakistan 1990-2025) . . 60
Methodology ...... 62
Industry Forecast Methodology 62
Sector-Specific Methodology .... 63
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