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BMI View: There are numerous challenges facing producers of all commodities
in Pakistan, chief among them a dire security situation, erratic power supply,
lack of available finance and vulnerability to extreme weather events.
Nevertheless, the government has taken some positive steps to improve the
availability of higher-quality seeds for rice, wheat and corn, which should
raise yields in the medium term. We also note that there have been recent
positive developments in the country's energy sector that, if sustained, could
prove beneficial for cotton and rice producers in particular. Our expectation
for rising prices out to 2020 also gives some grounds for optimism regarding
Key BMI Forecasts
-Cotton consumption growth to 2020: -1.5% to 10.4mn 480lb bales. High base
effects and a local supply shock in the early years of our forecast period will
see a decrease in cotton demand.
-Wheat production growth to 2019/20: 2.5% to 26.6mn tonnes. Production growth
will be modest despite government efforts to reduce input costs .
-2016 real GDP growth: 4.7%. Up from 4.2% in 2015. Forecast to grow annually by
4.2% to 2020.
-Consumer price inflation (ave): 4.5% in 2016 (down from 4.6% in 2015).