Ukraine Agribusiness Report

 Published On: Aug, 2016 |    No of Pages: 64 |  Published By: BMI Agribusiness | Format: PDF
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BMI View: We retain our generally negative outlook for Ukraine's agricultural sector in 2016 owing to a range of concerns. All agricultural markets will be negatively affected by the poor macroeconomic fundamentals in Ukraine. There will be limited investment into the country over the coming quarters given the unstable political and economic situation, which will affect agricultural production over our forecast period. Russia's ban on imports from Ukraine will weigh on production for the dairy and livestock industries, as Russia represents one of Ukraine's largest agricultural export markets. Furthermore, significant currency depreciation will limit imports, hitting input use and domestic investment. However, we believe that Ukrainian farmers will fail to benefit from the opportunities linked to this weaker currency due to export restrictions and lack of resources to scale up production in the medium term.

Key Forecasts
-Corn production will decline by 18.0% in 2015/16 to reach a total value of 23.3mn tonnes.
-We are estimating the wheat crop in 2016/17 to decline by 8.3% to reach 25.0mn tonnes.
-The livestock and dairy sectors will perform poorly in 2015/16 owing to unsound macroeconomic conditions.

BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT ...... 9
Agribusiness ...... 9
Industry Forecast .. 11
Grains Outlook 11
Latest Updates 11
Table: Ukraine - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook . . . 11
Table: Risks To Outlook . . 12
Structural Trends ..... 12
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) . . 15
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) . . . . 15
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) . . 15
Dairy Outlook .. 16
Latest Updates 16
Table: Ukraine - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook . . . . 16
Table: Risks To Outlook . . 17
Structural Trends ..... 17
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) . . . . 20
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) . . 20
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) . 20
Livestock Outlook ...... 21
Latest Updates 21
Table: Ukraine - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 21
Table: Risks To Outlook . . 22
Structural Trends ..... 22
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) . 25
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) . . . . 25
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2020) . . . . 25
Commodity Price Analysis ...... 26
Global - Global Commodities Strategy ...... 26
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts . . . . 26
Upstream Analysis 28
Europe Machinery Outlook ... 28
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (company-based estimates) . 31
Europe GM Outlook ... 34
Europe Fertiliser Outlook .... 41
Downstream Analysis .... 47
Food ..... 47
Latest Updates 47
Structural Trends ..... 48
Table: Food Sales (Ukraine 2013-2020) . . . 49
Regional Overview 51
Europe Regional Overview ... 51
Competitive Landscape . 57
Table: Main Agribusiness Players . . . . 57
Demographic Forecast .. 58
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ukraine 1990-2025) . . . . . 59
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ukraine 1990-2025) . . . 59
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Ukraine 1990-2025) . . . . 60
Table: Population By Age Group (Ukraine 1990-2025) 60
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ukraine 1990-2025) . . . 61
Methodology . 63
Industry Forecast Methodology .... 63
Sector-Specific Methodology ........ 64
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