If you got a question, look no further.
We post the most common questions
in our FAQ section.
Please fill in the form below to receive a Free Sample of the Report.
BMI View: Brexit will be a net negative for the UK agriculture industry due
to short-term uncertainty followed by lower revenues and increased costs owing
to less favourable subsidies, trade and labour conditions. We expect grains to
be the most resilient sector due to its low production costs and greater ease in
diversifying trade relationships. In contrast, sugar will be a clear
underperformer as the UK will struggle to fully take advantage of the EU quota
removal in 2017, while failing to offset this loss with sourcing alternative
trade partners. The livestock and dairy sectors will be able to supply a greater
share of domestic demand while benefiting from higher prices, although costs of
production will also be higher.
-Sugar production growth to 2019/20 on the 2014/15 level: -31.6% to 6.5mn tonnes.
Over the next ten years, output will decline severely as the UK leaves the EU's
protected sugar market, while domestic and alternative export opportunities will
only partially offset this loss.
-Sugar consumption growth to 2019/20 on the 2014/15 level: -1.8% to 2.3mn tonnes.
We expect sugar consumption in the UK to begin a steady decline in response to
the introduction of a sugar tax by the government in 2018, as well as higher
domestic prices following Brexit.
-Wheat production growth to 2019/20 on the 2014/15 level: -6.7% to 15.5mn tonnes.
Wheat production will see a moderate decline over the next five years due to
lower subsidies and wheat prices only slowly bottoming-out from 2016 onwards.
-Poultry consumption growth to 2019/20: 13.5% to 2.4mn tonnes. Demand for
poultry will be strong as the meat is a cheaper and leaner source of protein
than either pork or beef, which will make it appeal to UK consumers over the
coming years, especially as domestic prices increase after the UK leaves the EU.
-2016 real GDP growth: 1.4% y-o-y (revised down from 1.8% since our last
quarterly update), down from 2.3% y-o-y in 2015, forecast to rise 1.5% on
average annually between 2015/16 and 2019/20.
-2016 consumer price inflation: 0.5% y-o-y average, up from 0.1% in 2015,
forecast to rise to 2.1% on average annually between 2016 and 2020.
-BMI universe agribusiness market value growth: USD30.3bn in 2015/16, down by
1.1% y-o-y from USD30.6bn in 2014/15, forecast to rise 1.5% on average annually
between 2015/16 and 2019/20.