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BMI View: Corn and soybean production will decline year-on-year in the
upcoming 2016/17 season, yet will still count among the largest crops in US
agricultural history. Livestock will see some mild improvement in production
growth owing to the poultry and beef sectors. Over the long term, the poultry
sub-sector will remain the out performer in the livestock complex and we see the
strongest production growth potential for soybean among the grains complex. We
believe grains production will stagnate overall due to a lower planted area on
the back of lower prices.
-Beef production growth 2014/15 to 2019/20: 8.2% to 11.7mn tonnes. Production
will improve over our forecast period due to heavier animal weights and as the
sector's rebuilding phase is largely complete.
-Poultry production growth to 2019/20: 9.3% to 23.3mn tonnes. The US is the
world's second largest poultry exporter, behind Brazil. As such, increased
global demand for poultry, particularly from emerging markets, is likely to
serve as a powerful production incentive.
-Corn production growth to 2019/20: 3.3% to 373.2mn tonnes. Corn production
growth will slow over the next five years as opportunities to increase yields
(such as through the adoption of genetically modified seeds) are waning. Most of
the gains will be due to base effects.
-Soybean production growth to 2019/20: 3.5% to 109.9mn tonnes. Soybean
production growth will also slow prices due to reduced growth in plantings,
while yields will suffer due to reduced input usage.
-2016 real GDP growth: 2.2% y-o-y, down from 2.4% in 2015.