Venezuela Agribusiness Report

 Published On: Sep, 2016 |    No of Pages: 68 |  Published By: BMI Agribusiness | Format: PDF
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BMI View: The operating environment for Venezuela's agribusiness sector has deteriorated significantly over recent years due to the poor macroeconomic climate, a shortage of foreign currency for input purchases and general government mismanagement. Venezuela's economy will continue to be under extreme downward pressure in 2016 amid low international oil prices. The growing headwinds to the economy will weigh on agricultural production and consumption in the coming years, and we forecast most commodities to stagnate out to 2020. Producers of agricultural goods will struggle as rising production costs and controlled prices at the farm level reduce margins. As such, the divergence between Venezuela and its neighbouring countries in terms of agricultural sector development will continue to grow in the coming years.

Key Forecasts
-Coffee production growth to 2019/20: -8.2% to 459,000 60kg bags. Venezuela's coffee sector suffers from many structural weaknesses and is on the decline. Low profitability (due to government-mandated prices), the lack of private and public investment and the rust disease will impede production from growing.
- Poultry production growth to 2019/20: -7.7% to 563,000 tonnes. The sector is held back by a lack of profitability due to high input costs, inflation and government price controls, along with increased competition from imports. The poultry industry will fare somewhat better than the beef sector, for which the outlook is especially bleak.
BMI Industry View . 7
SWOT ......... 10
Industry Forecast  11
Grains Outlook ... 11
Latest Updates ... 11
Table: Venezuela - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Risks To Outlook . . 13
Structural Trends .......... 13
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Venezuela 2010-2015) . 17
Coffee Outlook .... 18
Latest Updates ... 18
Table: Venezuela - Coffee Production And Consumption Outlook . 18
Table: Venezuela - Risks To Coffee Outlook 19
Structural Trends .......... 19
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Venezuela 2012-2020) 21
Livestock Outlook  22
Latest Updates ... 22
Table: Venezuela - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook . . . . 23
Table: Risks To Outlook . . 23
Structural Trends .......... 24
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Venezuela 2012-2020) . . 25
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Venezuela 2012-2020) . . 26
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Venezuela 2012-2020) . . . . . 26
Commodity Strategy ...... 27
Commodities Forecasts .... 27
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 27
Upstream Analysis ......... 29
Americas GM Outlook ..... 29
Americas Machinery Outlook ....... 37
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates) . 40
Americas Fertiliser Outlook ......... 44
Downstream Analysis .... 51
Food ...... 51
Latest Updates ... 51
Structural Trends .......... 52
Table: Food Sales (Venezuela 2013-2020) . 52
Regional Overview ......... 55
Competitive Landscape . 61
Table: Venezuela Agribusiness Competitive Landscape 61
Demographic Forecast .. 62
Demographic Outlook 2015 ......... 62
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Venezuela 1990-2025) . . . 63
Table: Key Population Ratios (Venezuela 1990-2025) . 63
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Venezuela 1990-2025) . . 64
Table: Population By Age Group (Venezuela 1990-2025) . . . 64
Table: Population By Age Group % (Venezuela 1990-2025) 65
Methodology ........ 67
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 67
Sector-Specific Methodology ...... 68
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