Kazakhstan Agribusiness Report

 Published On: Sep, 2016 |    No of Pages: 62 |  Published By: BMI Agribusiness | Format: PDF
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BMI View: The interest of foreign investors in the Kazakhstan livestock industry supports our view that this is the sub-sector with most growth potential. Poultry production in particular is expected to perform well over the next five years. The development of the livestock industry ties into another key trend we expect to take hold over our forecast period: the diversification of arable production away from the bedrock commodity, wheat. Feed grains will assume greater importance, particularly corn, in the grains complex. The dairy industry is growing from a weaker base than that enjoyed by meat producers, so we expect statefunded schemes to play a more significant role in its medium-term development and modernisation.

Key Forecasts

-Wheat production growth to 2019/20: -2% to 13.4mn tonnes. Yields will support modest annual increases in output beyond 2016/17. This is despite declining acreage due to subsidies incentivising sowings of other field crops. The main reason for the decline is low base effects.

-Milk consumption growth to 2020: 16.0% to 5.3mn tonnes. Demand will be held back in the short term by a challenging macroeconomic environment, but we expect strong growth to return in the later years of our forecast period.

-2016 real GDP growth: 1.5%, down from 1.3% in 2015, predicting to average 4% out to 2020.

-2016 average consumer price inflation: 12.8% y-o-y, up from 7.0% y-o-y in 2015.
BMI Industry View ............... 7
SWOT .. 10
Industry Forecast .............. 12
Dairy Outlook ......... 12
Latest Updates ....... 12
Table: Kazakhstan - Dairy Production & Consumption Outlook.......... . . . . . . 12
Table: Risks To Outlook................ 13
Structural Trends ... 13
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Kazakhstan 2012-2020).......... . . . . 14
Livestock Outlook .... 15
Latest Updates ....... 15
Table: Kazakhstan - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook.......... 16
Table: Risks To Outlook................ 17
Structural Trends ... 17
Table: Meat Production & Consumption (Kazakhstan 2012-2020).......... . . . . 19
Grains Outlook ....... 20
Latest Updates ....... 20
Table: Kazakhstan - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook.......... . . . 20
Table: Risks To Outlook................ 21
Structural Trends ... 22
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Kazakhstan 2012-2020).......... . . 23
Commodities Price Analysis ............. 25
Global - Global Commodities Strategy ......... 25
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts........... 25
Upstream Analysis ............ 27
Europe GM Outlook . 27
Europe Machinery Outlook ........ 34
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (company-based estimates)........ . . . 37
Europe Fertiliser Outlook ......... 40
Downstream Analysis ....... 46
Food ..... 46
Latest Updates ....... 46
Structural Trends ... 47
Table: Food Sales (Kazakhstan 2013-2020)............. . . . . 48
Regional Overview ............ 50
Europe Regional Overview ........ 50
Demographic Forecast ..... 56
Demographic Outlook .............. 56
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kazakhstan 1990-2025).......... . . . . . . 57
Table: Key Population Ratios (Kazakhstan 1990-2025)...........57
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Kazakhstan 1990-2025)......... . 58
Table: Population By Age Group (Kazakhstan 1990-2025)........... . . . . 58
Table: Population By Age Group % (Kazakhstan 1990-2025)........... . 59
Methodology ...... 61
Industry Forecast Methodology 61
Sector-Specific Methodology .... 62
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