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BMI View: We see potential for output growth in corn and coffee, two of the main
crops in Uganda. For
coffee, we see Uganda as an East African leader in terms of exports, largely
owing to government support
for the sector and new disease-resistant trees. We expect Uganda to remain a net
corn exporter in the
coming years, although most of its corn will be shipped regionally. The country
is unlikely to compete with
South Africa and Zambia to become one of Sub-Saharan Africa's largest corn
exporters. Food security will
be a concern in the short term owing to droughts affecting regional neighbours,
leading to more corn
exports and reduced domestic supply.
-Coffee production growth to 2019/20: 4% to 4.2mn 60kg bags. The Uganda Coffee
Authority's production campaign has developed new disease-resistant coffee
trees, which are expected to
boost yields over our forecast period. However, lower average coffee prices over
the medium term will
act as a constraint on production growth.
-Corn consumption growth to 2020: 13% to 3.1mn tonnes. Growth in demand will
come from the
country's livestock sector, which is growing in response to higher demand.
Overall, however, corn
consumption will largely be guided by changes in population.
-2016 real GDP growth: 4.8% (down from 5.6% in 2015; predicted to average 6.4%
from 2016 to 2020).
-2016 consumer price inflation average: 5.5% (up from 5.5% in 2015).