Uganda Agribusiness Report

 Published On: Sep, 2016 |    No of Pages: 59 |  Published By: BMI Agribusiness | Format: PDF
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BMI View: We see potential for output growth in corn and coffee, two of the main crops in Uganda. For coffee, we see Uganda as an East African leader in terms of exports, largely owing to government support for the sector and new disease-resistant trees. We expect Uganda to remain a net corn exporter in the coming years, although most of its corn will be shipped regionally. The country is unlikely to compete with South Africa and Zambia to become one of Sub-Saharan Africa's largest corn exporters. Food security will be a concern in the short term owing to droughts affecting regional neighbours, leading to more corn exports and reduced domestic supply.

Key Forecasts
-Coffee production growth to 2019/20: 4% to 4.2mn 60kg bags. The Uganda Coffee Development Authority's production campaign has developed new disease-resistant coffee trees, which are expected to boost yields over our forecast period. However, lower average coffee prices over the medium term will act as a constraint on production growth.
-Corn consumption growth to 2020: 13% to 3.1mn tonnes. Growth in demand will come from the country's livestock sector, which is growing in response to higher demand. Overall, however, corn consumption will largely be guided by changes in population.
-2016 real GDP growth: 4.8% (down from 5.6% in 2015; predicted to average 6.4% from 2016 to 2020).
-2016 consumer price inflation average: 5.5% (up from 5.5% in 2015).

BMI Industry View . 7
SWOT 10
Industry Forecast 12
Grains Outlook ..... 12
Latest Updates ..... 12
Table: Uganda - Corn Production And Consumption Outlook . . . . 12
Table: Risks To Outlook . . . 13
Structural Trends . 13
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Uganda 2012-2020) . . . 15
Coffee Outlook ...... 16
Latest Updates ..... 16
Table: Uganda - Coffee Production And Consumption Outlook . . 16
Table: Risks To Outlook . . . 16
Structural Trends . 17
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Uganda 2012-2020) . 19
Commodity Price Analysis ...... 20
Global Commodities Strategy ....... 20
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts . . . 20
Upstream Analysis ........ 22
Africa GM Outlook 22
Africa Machinery Outlook . 29
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions . 29
Africa Fertiliser Outlook ... 35
Downstream Analysis ... 42
Food ......... 42
Latest Updates ..... 42
Structural Trends . 43
Table: Food Sales (Uganda 2013-2020) . . 44
Regional Overview ........ 47
Middle East & Africa Regional Overview . 47
Demographic Forecast . 53
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Uganda 1990-2025) 54
Table: Key Population Ratios (Uganda 1990-2025) . . . . 54
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Uganda 1990-2025) . . 55
Table: Population By Age Group (Uganda 1990-2025) . 55
Table: Population By Age Group % (Uganda 1990-2025) . . . 56
Methodology ........ 58
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 58
Sector-Specific Methodology ...... 59
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