Ethiopia Agribusiness Report

 Published On: Sep, 2016 |    No of Pages: 73 |  Published By: BMI Agribusiness | Format: PDF
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BMI View: Production prospects look broadly favourable for Ethiopian agriculture over the long term. This will largely be due to more investment in the sector, along with higher incomes contributing to consumption growth. We believe the sugar sector has the most potential, as investments in new sugar refineries will make sugar one of the few reliable agricultural exports over the forecast period. In terms of grains, the country's food security will remain in a precarious situation due to recent droughts linked to El Niņo. Moreover, even with recent multinational interest in the country's farmland, Ethiopia is most likely to remain a net grains importer over the medium term.

Key Forecasts
-Sugar production growth to 2019/20: 148.8% to 746,500 tonnes. Investment by the state-run sugar corporation is likely to lead to a significant increase in the area dedicated to sugar production. The aim of the plan is to make Ethiopia one of the world's top 10 largest sugar exporters.
-Coffee consumption growth to 2020: 4.2% to 3.1mn bags. Economic gains will boost consumption, although Ethiopians already have high per capita consumption rates compared with neighbouring Kenya and Uganda.
-2016 real GDP growth: 7.0% (down from 8.1% in 2015; predicted to average 7.4% from 2016 until 2020).
-2016 consumer price inflation: 8.2% average in 2016 (up from 10.4% in 2015).

BMI Industry View . 7
SWOT .. 9
Industry Forecast 11
Sugar Outlook ....... 11
Latest Updates ..... 11
Table: Ethiopia - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook . . 11
Table: Risks To Outlook . . . 12
Structural Trends . 12
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2012-2020) . 13
Grains Outlook ..... 14
Latest Updates ..... 14
Table: Ethiopia - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook . 14
Table: Risks To Outlook . . . 15
Structural Trends . 15
Table: Grain Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2012-2020) . 17
Coffee Outlook ...... 18
Latest Updates ..... 18
Table: Ethiopia - Coffee Production & Consumption Outlook . . . . 18
Table: Risks To Outlook . . . 19
Structural Trends . 19
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2012-2020) . 20
Commodities Price Analysis ... 21
Global Commodities Strategy ....... 21
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts . . . 21
Featured Analysis 23
Ten Emerging Markets Of The Future: Highlighting Key Sectors 23
Table: Key Drivers Of Economic Growth By Sector Classification, 2016-2025 . 25
Country Summaries ........ 25
Table: Bangladesh - Sector Growth Forecasts 26
Table: Egypt - Sector Growth Forecasts . 28
Table: Ethiopia - Sector Growth Forecasts . . . 30
Table: Indonesia - Sector Growth Forecasts . . 32
Table: Kenya - Sector Growth Forecasts . 33
Table: Myanmar - Sector Growth Rates . . 34
Table: Nigeria - Sector Growth Rates . . . . 36
Table: Pakistan - Sector Growth Rates . . . 37
Table: Philippines - Sector Growth Rates 38
Table: Vietnam - Sector Growth Rates . . . 40
Upstream Analysis ........ 41
Africa GM Outlook 41
Africa Machinery Outlook . 48
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions . 48
Africa Fertiliser Outlook ... 54
Regional Overview ........ 61
Middle East & Africa Regional Overview . 61
Demographic Forecast . 67
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ethiopia 1990-2025) . . . . 68
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ethiopia 1990-2025) . . . . 68
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Ethiopia 1990-2025) . 69
Table: Population By Age Group (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 69
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ethiopia 1990-2025) . . 70
Methodology ........ 72
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 72
Sector-Specific Methodology ...... 73
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