Zimbabwe Agribusiness Report

 Published On: Sep, 2016 |    No of Pages: 64 |  Published By: BMI Agribusiness | Format: PDF
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BMI View: We expect Zimbabwe to remain a net corn importer over the longer term. Over the next five years, we expect production of the grain to demonstrate moderate growth, although production will remain well below the totals seen in the early 2000s and much of the growth will be in the form of a recovery. We are more optimistic regarding the sugar sector, where access to key markets and potential for productivity improvements will drive production over the long term. Although we forecast a domestic sugar market surplus, the sector remains below potential and our forecasts are relatively subdued despite our expectations for higher average prices than current levels in the coming years.

Key Forecasts

-Corn production to 2019/20: 83% on the 2015/16 level to 919,000 tonnes. We project relatively strong growth over the long term, but the country will remain a net importer, as almost all of this growth is due to base effects.

-Sugar production to 2019/20: 11% on the 2015/16 level to 459,000 tonnes. An overall improvement in sugarcane yields, greater efficiency of mills and long-term access to export markets will be key drivers of production growth.

-2016 real GDP growth: 0.7%, up from -1.4% in 2015, forecast to average 3.6% between 2016 and 2020.

-2016 consumer price deflation: 1.4% annual average (compared to -2.4% in 2015).
BMI Industry View ............... 7
SWOT .... 9
Industry Forecast .............. 11
Grains Outlook ....... 11
Latest Updates ....... 11
Table: Zimbabwe - Grains Production & Consumption Outlook.......... . . . . . . 11
Table: Risks To Outlook................ 12
Structural Trends ... 12
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Zimbabwe 2012-2020).......... . . . . . 13
Sugar Outlook ......... 14
Latest Updates ....... 14
Table: Zimbabwe - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook.......... . . . . . 14
Table: Risks To Outlook................ 15
Structural Trends ... 15
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Zimbabwe 2012-2020).......... . . . . 15
Commodity Price Analysis 16
Global - Global Commodities Strategy ......... 16
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts........... 16
Featured Analysis .............. 18
Industry Trend Analysis ............ 18
Table: Southern Africa - Drought Impact On Corn Production........... 20
Table: Corn - Production Balance & Self-Sufficiency (2012-2020).......... . . . . 31
Upstream Analysis ............ 32
Africa GM Outlook .. 32
Africa Machinery Outlook ......... 39
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions............ . . . . . 39
Africa Fertiliser Outlook ........... 44
Regional Overview ............ 51
Middle East & Africa Regional Overview ..... 51
Competitive Landscape .... 57
Table: Main Agribusiness Companies.............. . . 57
Demographic Forecast ..... 58
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Zimbabwe 1990-2025)..........59
Table: Key Population Ratios (Zimbabwe 1990-2025)............ . 59
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Zimbabwe 1990-2025)......... . . 60
Table: Population By Age Group (Zimbabwe 1990-2025)........... . . . . . 60
Table: Population By Age Group % (Zimbabwe 1990-2025)........... . . 61
Methodology ...... 63
Industry Forecast Methodology 63
Sector-Specific Methodology .... 64
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