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BMI View: The Canadian grains and beef sectors will emerge as winners of the
Trans-Pacific Partnership, and expanded export possibilities will deliver output
stability out to 2020. However, beef production will be constrained due to
cattle supply. The Canadian pork sector will remain stable, largely as demand
for Canadian live swine to the US remains steady. The dairy sector will post
lacklustre growth prospects, while the sugar industry remains under pressure
from low prices and competes with global production from Brazil and Asia.
Canadian sugar production will recover modestly in the face of low international
prices and increasing imports, without being protected by substantial import
-Barley production growth in 2015/16: 15.5% to 8.23mn tonnes. Output will
increase as the crop recovers from the significant losses of last year.
-Poultry production growth in 2015/16: 4.5% to 1.16mn tonnes. This will be due
to consumers' increasing shift away from red meat, making poultry the most
consumed meat in Canada.