China Agribusiness Report

 Published On: Sep, 2016 |    No of Pages: 114 |  Published By: BMI Agribusiness | Format: PDF
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BMI View: China's weight in the global agricultural sector is growing, as the country has an increasing impact on international production balances and prices. China will maintain its appetite for key commodities for the foreseeable future, with particular potential for production growth in sugar, dairy and livestock. High demand growth, strong government support and the potential for investment and consolidation in these industries will help them outperform in the coming years. However, the agribusiness sector is experiencing challenging times, seen in the slowdown in meat and milk powder consumption in 2015.

Key Forecasts

-Soybean production growth to 2019/20: 0.9% to 12.3mn tonnes. In spite of the increase in production in 2016/17, soybean production will remain low in China as the crop lack attractiveness for farmers.
Pork production growth to 2019/20: 13.0% to 62.1mn tonnes. Increased production continues to be encouraged on the back of elevated local livestock prices.

The increased availability of vaccinations and the ongoing commercialisation of the industry are also likely to boost output

Sugar consumption growth to 2020: 16.7% to 19.6mn tonnes. Consumption will be boosted by rising income, which will support demand for products in key industries, such as the confectionery, dairy, beverage, and food processing

BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD1,327mn in 2016 (up 2.9% compared with 2015, growth forecast to average 4.3% annually between 2016 and 2020)

2016 real GDP growth: 6.3% (down from 6.9% in 2015, forecast to average 5.8% between 2016 and 2020).

2016 consumer price inflation: 1.8% y-o-y average (up from 1.5% in 2015, forecast to average 2.3% between 2016 and 2020).

2016 Central Bank policy rate: 4.10% eop (down from 4.35% eop in 2015; forecast to average 4.10% eop between 2016 and 2020.
BMI Industry View ............... 7
SWOT .. 10
Industry Forecast .............. 12
Grains Outlook ....... 12
Latest Updates ....... 12
Table: China - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook........... . 13
Table: China - Risks To Grains Outlook.............. 14
Structural Trends ... 14
Table: China Minimum Price Support Programmes............ . . . 16
Table: Grains Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020)........... 18
Rice Outlook ........... 19
Latest Updates ....... 19
Table: China - Rice Production And Consumption Outlook........... . . . 19
Table: China - Risks To Rice Outlook.............. . . 20
Structural Trends ... 20
Table: China Grains Procurement Prices (CNY/tonne)............ 21
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020)........... . . 22
Oilseeds Outlook ..... 23
Latest Updates ....... 23
Table: China - Oilseeds Production And Consumption Outlook..........24
Table: China - Risks To Oilseeds Outlook............. . . . . . . 24
Structural Trends ... 25
Table: Soybean Production & Consumption (China 2012-2020).......... . . . . . . 28
Table: Palm Oil Consumption (China 2013-2020)............ . . . . . 28
Sugar Outlook ......... 29
Latest Updates ....... 29
Table: China - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook........... . . 30
Table: China - Risks To Sugar Outlook.............. . 30
Structural Trends ... 30
Table: China - Sugarcane Floor Price (CNY/tonne) & Production By Province........ . . . . . . 31
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020)........... . 35
Cotton Outlook ........ 36
Latest Updates ....... 36
Table: China - Cotton Production And Consumption Outlook........... . 37
Table: China - Risks To Cotton Outlook.............. 37
Structural Trends ... 37
Table: Cotton Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020)........... 42
Dairy Outlook ......... 43
Latest Updates ....... 43
Table: China - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook........... . . 44
Table: China - Risks To Dairy Outlook.............. . 44
Structural Trends ... 45
Table: Selected Countries - Milk Production Cost, USD/100 kg milk ECM......... . . . 48
Table: Dairy Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020)........... . 52
Livestock Outlook .... 53
Latest Updates ....... 53
Table: China - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook.......... . . . . . . 55
Table: China - Risks To Livestock Outlook............. . . . . . 56
Structural Trends ... 56
Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (China 2013-2020).......... . . . . . 60
Commodities Price Analysis ............. 62
Global - Global Commodities Strategy ......... 62
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts........... 62
Featured Analysis .............. 64
13th Five-Year Plan: Implications For Agribusiness ...... 64
Upstream Analysis ............ 69
Asia GM Outlook ..... 69
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares)........... . . . . . 74
Asia Machinery Outlook ........... 75
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares........... . . . 80
Downstream Analysis ....... 82
Food ..... 82
Latest Updates ....... 82
Structural Trends ... 83
Table: Food Sales (China 2013-2020).............. . . 86
Regional Overview ............ 89
Competitive Landscape .... 95
Table: China - Major Agribusiness Companies............. 95
Appendix ............ 97
13th Five-Year Plan: Key Points 97
Summary Of Contents ............. 97
Chapter 1: Overview ............... 98
Table: Targets................. . . . 98
Chapter 2: Innovation To Drive Development .............. 99
Chapter 3: Economic Institutions ............ 100
Chapter 4: Modernisation Of The Agricultural Sector . 101
Chapter 5: Industries ............ 102
Chapter 6: Expand The Network Economy 103
Chapter 7: Build A Modern Infrastructure Network .... 103
Chapter 8: New-Type Urbanisation ......... 104
Chapter 9: Coordination Of Regional Development .... 105
Chapter 10: Environmental Protection ..... 106
Chapter 11: Continue Opening Up .......... 106
Others: .............. 106
Demographic Forecast ... 108
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025)........... . . . 109
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025)............ . . . . 109
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025)......... . . . . . . 110
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025)............ . 110
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025)........... . . . . . . 111
Methodology .... 113
Industry Forecast Methodology .............. 113
Sector-Specific Methodology .. 114
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