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BMI View: We have not made significant changes to our forecasts in this
quarter's update. We retain our view that Egypt will face growing production
deficits in grains and meat, as it focuses on export-oriented cash crops, while
the dairy sector will benefit from sustained private investment. Leading up to
2020, an expanding population and rising disposable incomes will support
consumption growth in sugar and dairy products. Moreover, rice and beef
consumption will benefit from the greater range of products available under the
new food subsidy scheme. The real challenges that Egypt faces throughout the
long run are water shortages and a dire need to improve farming mechanisms to
conserve water for sustained irrigation purposes.
-Wheat production by 2020: 8.42mn tonnes. Wheat production will be constrained
by a greater amount of arable land being devoted to export-oriented crops.