India Agribusiness Report

 Published On: Sep, 2016 |    No of Pages: 94 |  Published By: BMI Agribusiness | Format: PDF
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BMI View: India will remain an agricultural powerhouse over our forecast period and should be able to maintain high levels of self-sufficiency for major food crops. Production growth of various commodities will be driven by strong government support and robust demand growth for manufactured foodstuffs. We see significant growth opportunities in sub-sectors such as dairy, coffee and livestock. However, India will be increasingly vulnerable to exceptional weather phenomena and serious water shortages. Moreover, the country will remain prone to erratic government interventions, which seriously hamper its reputation as an international provider.

Key Forecasts
-Sugar production growth to 2019/20: 3.7% to 30.1mn tonnes. Inefficiencies in the pricing policy will constrain growth. Output expansion will mainly come from the liberalisation of the market, of which the first signs can be observed.
-Palm oil consumption growth to 2020: 31.8% to 11.9mn tonnes. Domestic palm oil consumption will be propelled by strong demand for domestic food use, which makes up about 80% of total domestic palm oil demand.
-Beef & veal production to 2019/20: 23.5% to 5.1mn tonnes. Growth will be driven by improvements in breeding techniques, and by the robust expansion of the milk sector. Export demand for Indian beef will also support investment in the sector.
-Agribusiness market value: USD256.7bn in 2016 (up from USD244.9bn in 2015; forecast to grow annually by 6.0% on average from 2016 to 2020).
-2016 real GDP growth: 7.2% (down from 7.6% in 2015; predicted to average 6.8% from 2016 to 2020).
-2016 consumer price inflation: 4.8% y-o-y ave (down from 5.1% in 2015; forecast to average 4.4% from 2016 to 2020).

BMI Industry View . 7
SWOT .. 9
Agribusiness . 9
Industry Forecast 11
Grains Outlook ..... 11
Latest Updates ..... 11
Table: India - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Risks To Outlook . . . 12
Structural Trends . 13
Table: Grains Production & Consumption (India 2013-2020) . . . . 18
Rice Outlook ......... 19
Latest Updates ..... 19
Table: India - Rice Production And Consumption Outlook . . 19
Table: Risks To Outlook . . . 20
Structural Trends . 20
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (India 2012-2020) . 22
Sugar Outlook ....... 23
Latest Updates ..... 23
Table: India - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook . 24
Table: Risks To Outlook . . . 24
Structural Trends . 24
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (India 2013-2020) 27
Dairy Outlook ....... 28
Latest Updates ..... 28
Table: India - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook . 29
Table: Risks To Outlook . . . 29
Structural Trends . 29
Table: Dairy Production & Consumption (India 2013-2020) 35
Livestock Outlook .. 36
Latest Updates ..... 36
Table: India - Livestock Production & Consumption Outlook . . . . 37
Table: Risks To Outlook . . . 37
Structural Trends . 38
Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (India 2013-2020) . 42
Palm Oil Outlook .. 44
Latest Updates ..... 44
Table: India - Palm Oil Production & Consumption Outlook 45
Table: Risks To Outlook . . . 45
Structural Trends . 45
Table: Palm Oil Production & Consumption (India 2013-2020) . 49
Coffee Outlook ...... 50
Latest Updates ..... 50
Table: India - Coffee Production And Consumption Outlook 50
Table: Risks To Outlook . . . 51
Structural Trends . 52
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (India 2013-2020) . . . . 54
Commodity Price Analysis ...... 55
Global Commodities Strategy ....... 55
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts . . . 55
Upstream Analysis ........ 57
Asia GM Outlook ... 57
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares) . . . 61
Asia Machinery Outlook ... 63
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares . 68
Asia Fertiliser Outlook ..... 70
Downstream Analysis ... 76
Food ......... 76
Latest Updates ..... 76
Structural Trends . 77
Table: Food Sales (India 2013-2020) . . . . 79
Regional Overview ........ 81
Competitive Landscape 87
Table: India - Major Agribusiness Companies 87
Demographic Forecast . 88
Table: Population Headline Indicators (India 1990-2025) . . 89
Table: Key Population Ratios (India 1990-2025) . . 89
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (India 1990-2025) 90
Table: Population By Age Group (India 1990-2025) . . . . 90
Table: Population By Age Group % (India 1990-2025) . 91
Methodology ........ 93
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 93
Sector-Specific Methodology ...... 94
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