Mexico Agribusiness Report

 Published On: Sep, 2016 |    No of Pages: 74 |  Published By: BMI Agribusiness | Format: PDF
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BMI View: We retain our generally positive outlook for the Mexican agricultural sector in our latest Q4 2016 report update. We have made some minor forecast revisions this quarter to account or production variations. Growth rates will begin to weaken compared to previous years, but we see positive trends in domestic consumption and production in the dairy and livestock sector. Grains will also begin to recover and post a generally upwards trend. Nevertheless, we remain concerned about the severity of the roya rust that is negative impacting the coffee crops in the country. Mexican coffee production has seen consecutive years of declines and we have made further negative revisions based on the worsening rust problem. On the demand side, rising per capita disposable incomes will continue to deliver demand-side growth, but we hold our opinion that competitiveness remains an issue for the Mexican agricultural sector as a whole, particularly in the grains, livestock and sugar subsectors.

Key Forecasts

-We estimate that Mexican corn production will decline by 1.9% in 2015/16 to reach 25.0mn tonnes.  Nevertheless, we estimate that the crop yields will recover over the course of our forecast period. Corn consumption, already high in Mexico, will continue to witness modest growth rates to 2020

-We forecast strong production growth in all three livestock sectors in Mexico, with pork production outpacing poultry and beef and veal this year. Consumption growth will be stable in poultry and pork, whereas higher costs will dampen beef and veal growth prospects in 2016.
BMI Industry View ............... 7
SWOT .... 9
Industry Forecast .............. 11
Livestock Outlook .... 11
Table: Mexico Livestock Production, Consumption & Trade Outlook.......... . 12
Table: Risks to Outlook................ . 13
Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (Mexico 2013-2020).......... . . . . 14
Sugar Outlook ......... 16
Table: Mexico - Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook........... . . . 16
Table: Risks to Outlook................ . 17
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Mexico 2012-2020)........... 19
Coffee Outlook ........ 20
Table: Mexico Coffee Production & Consumption Outlook........... . . . . 21
Table: Risks to Outlook................ . 21
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Mexico 2012-2020)..........22
Dairy Outlook ......... 23
Table: Mexico Dairy Production & Consumption Outlook........... . . . . 24
Table: Risks to Outlook................ . 24
Table: Dairy Production & Consumption (Mexico 2013-2020)........... 26
Grains Outlook ....... 27
Table: Mexico Production & Consumption Outlook............ . . . 28
Table: Risks to Outlook................ . 29
Table: Grain Production & Consumption (Mexico 2013-2020)........... 31
Commodities Price Analysis ............. 32
Global - Global Commodities Strategy ......... 32
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts........... 32
Upstream Analysis ............ 34
Americas Machinery Outlook ..... 34
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates)........ . . . 37
Americas GM Outlook .............. 41
Americas Fertiliser Outlook ....... 48
Downstream Analysis ....... 56
Food ..... 56
Latest Updates ....... 56
Structural Trends ... 57
Table: Food Sales (Mexico 2013-2020).............. 58
Regional Overview ............ 61
Competitive Landscape .... 67
Table: Mexico Competitive Landscape.............. . 67
Demographic Forecast ..... 68
Demographic Outlook .............. 68
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Mexico 1990-2025)........... . . 69
Table: Key Population Ratios (Mexico 1990-2025)............ . . . . 69
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Mexico 1990-2025)......... . . . . . 70
Table: Population By Age Group (Mexico 1990-2025)............ 70
Table: Population By Age Group % (Mexico 1990-2025)........... . . . . . . 71
Methodology ...... 73
Industry Forecast Methodology 73
Sector-Specific Methodology .... 74
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