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BMI View: We continue to hold a mixed outlook for the South African agricultural
market as a whole. Both corn and wheat will be hit by severe drought and the
effects of El Niņo, but we do expect grains to rebound over the course of our
forecast period. Furthermore, livestock production and sugar consumption will
both embark on a positive trajectory. Over the medium term, a weak rand, weather
volatility and falling farm incomes will exert downward pressures on the market.
However, economic growth, increasing demand and a higher population with more
discretionary spending power will be boosts for growth.
- Corn production will take another year of heavy losses in 2015/16
due to severe drought, declining by an
additional 38.8% y-o-y to reach 6.5mn tonnes.
- Sugar production will decline by 20.2% to reach 1.75mn tonnes in
2015/16, as El Niņo and severe
regional weather droughts hit output.
- Poultry production will reach 1.3mn tonnes in 2015/16, representing a
y-o-y increase of 1.2%.
- Pork production will rise by 2.1% in 2015/16 to reach 245,000 tonnes,
while consumption will see a rise
to 306,000 tonnes.
BMI Industry View ... 7
Agribusiness ... 9
Industry Forecast .. 12
Sugar Outlook ..... 12
Latest Updates ... 12
Table: South Africa - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook . . . . .
Table: Risks To Outlook . . 12
Structural Trends ..... 13
Table: Sugar Consumption & Production (South Africa 2012-2020) . . . . 14
Rice Outlook . 15
Latest Updates ... 15
Table: South Africa - Rice Consumption Outlook15
Table: Risks To Outlook . . 15
Structural Trends ..... 16
Table: Rice Consumption (South Africa 2012-2020) . . .
Grains Outlook ... 18
Latest Updates ... 18
Table: South Africa - Grains Production & Consumption Outlook 18
Table: Risks To Outlook . . 19
Structural Trends ..... 19
Table: Grains Production & Consumption (South Africa 2013-2020) . . . 20
Livestock Outlook 21
Latest Updates ... 21
Table: South Africa - Livestock Production & Consumption Outlook . . . 21
Table: Risks To Outlook . . 22
Structural Trends ..... 22
Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (South Africa 2012-2020) 23
Commodities Price Analysis ... 24
Global Commodities Strategy ... 24
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And Bmi Forecasts . . . . 24
Upstream Analysis 26
Africa Machinery Outlook . 26
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions. . . . 26
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012) . . 31
Africa GM Outlook .... 32
Africa Fertiliser Outlook ... 39
Downstream Analysis . 46
Food ..... 46
Latest Updates ... 46
Structural Trends ..... 47
Table: Food Sales (South Africa 2013-2020). . . . . 48
Regional Overview 50
Middle East & Africa Regional Overview ..... 50
Competitive Landscape .... 56
Table: Main Agribusiness Companies 56
Demographic Forecast ..... 57
Demographic Outlook 57
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025) . 58
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025) . . . .
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025) 59
Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025) . 59
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025) . . . . 60
Methodology .... 62
Industry Forecast Methodology .... 62
Sector-Specific Methodology .. 63