Czech Republic Power Report

 Published On: Sep, 2016 |    No of Pages: 57 |  Published By: BMI Power | Format: PDF
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BMI View: Power generation growth will be mostly stagnant in Czech Republic with a decline forecast for 2020 and 2022 as the Temelín nuclear reactors are decommissioned. Thermal power will remain the dominant source of power generation to plug the deficit left by nuclear power decommissioning, while development of non-hydropower renewables will be held back by lack of government support for FiTs. Slow progress in getting new nuclear capacity online will result in Czech Republic becoming a net-electricity importer by the end of 2025.

Latest Updates and Structural Trends

-We expect that coal-fired capacity will remain the most utilised fuel source for power in Czech Republic. Scheduled maintenance of nuclear reactors has increased the requirement for raised thermal power output. The pending modernisation of the Prunérov power plant further underscores this view.
 
-We have revised our nuclear power generation forecasts for Czech Republic. Despite previous flawed safety checks, all four reactors at the Dukovany nuclear plant will continue to operate post-2025. We have therefore increased our nuclear power generation forecasts for 2025 from a level of 11.3 terawatt hours (TWh) to 15.1TWh.

-CEZ has announced that all four units at the Dukovany nuclear reactor will continue to operate until 2035, with plans to construct replacement units for the existing units by that time.

-CEZ announced in May that it will be investing up to EUR2.2bn in renewable energy outside of Czech Republic. We believe that this is indicative of the unfavourable investment environment for renewable energy in Czech Republic, therefore we have not altered our muted forecasts for non-hydropower renewable electricity in Czech Republic.

-Our transmission and distribution losses forecasts for Czech Republic remain mostly unchanged from last quarter. We expect that losses as percentage of total output will decrease from 4.7% to 3.3% over our 10-year forecast period.

-While we originally forecasted that Czech Republic will become a net-electricity importer by 2025, we now expect the effect to be much more muted based on the extension of the operating licence of the Dukovany nuclear reactors as well as increased focus on thermal capacity.
BMI Industry View ............... 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Czech Republic 2015-2021)........... 7
SWOT .... 8
Industry Forecast .............. 10
Czech Republic Snapshot .......... 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Czech Republic 2014-2019)....... . . 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Czech Republic 2020-2025)....... . . 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector.............. 10
Czech Republic Power Forecast Scenario .... 11
Thermal Generation And Power Generating Capacity ... 11
Nuclear Generation And Power Generating Capacity ... 13
Table: Czech Nuclear Reactor Capacity And Decommissioning Dates.......... 14
Renewables Generation And Power Generating Capacity .............. 16
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Czech Republic 2014-2019).......17
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Czech Republic 2020-2025).......18
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Czech Republic 2014-2019)....... . . . 19
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Czech Republic 2020-2025)....... . . . 19
Electricity Consumption .......... 20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Czech Republic 2014-2019)....... . . . . . 20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Czech Republic 2020-2025)....... . . . . . 20
Transmission & Distribution .... 21
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Czech Republic 2014-2019).......22
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Czech Republic 2020-2025).......22
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Czech Republic 2014-2019)..........22
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Czech Republic 2020-2025)..........22
Industry Risk/Reward Index ............. 23
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index .. 23
Czech Republic Power Risk/Reward Index .... 30
Rewards ............... 30
Risks .... 30
Market Overview ............... 32
Key Policies And Market Structure .............. 32
Regulation And Competition ..... 32
Sustainable Energy Policies ..... 33
Pricing . 35
Table: Half-yearly Electricity And Gas Prices, H2, 2012-2014 (EUR per kWh)........ . . . . . . 36
Czech Republic Power Projects Database .... 37
Table: Czech Republic - Top Power Projects By Capacity........... . . . . . 37
Competitive Landscape .... 38
CEZ .... 38
CEPS ... 39
PRE ..... 39
E.ON ... 39
Company Profile 40
CEZ ...... 40
Table: CEZ's Strategic Programmes.............. . . . 41
Regional Overview ............ 43
CEE Power Regional Overview .. 43
Glossary ............. 51
Table: Glossary Of Terms............... . . . . . . 51
Methodology ...... 52
Methodology And Sources ......... 52
Industry Forecast Methodology 52
Sources 55
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ............... 55
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators............. . . . 56
Table: Weighting Of Indicators............... . 57
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