India Power Report

 Published On: Jul, 2016 |    No of Pages: 75 |  Published By: BMI Power | Format: PDF
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BMI View: Our view that power sector reforms would be a top priority for Modi's government is playing out. We are seeing notable progress in the Indian power market regarding renewable energy `expansion, reducing red tape for power projects and improving fuel availability for thermal generation. That said, investment in India's power grid infrastructure will need to increase if Prime Minister Modi's ambitious power plans are to be realised. The transmission and distribution network remains highly inefficient, posing a significant risk to the expansion of the power and renewables sector in India. Reforming power tariffs will therefore be fundamental to ensuring sustainable supply and achieving Modi's power expansion ambitions.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends
-The sizeable coal power project pipeline and the widespread availability of coal - from low cost Asia seaborne imports and growing domestic production - will ensure coal will remain the dominant fuel choice for India's power sector, despite growth in alternative sources, such as nuclear and renewables. We forecast coal to contribute 64% to India's power generation mix in 2025.
-Since coming to power, the government has relaxed several environmental rules to make it easier for companies to develop new projects. Small and medium-sized coal miners can now expand production by 50% without public consent, while polluting industries can operate closer to national parks. This relaxation of environmental laws has translated into a major reduction in red tape for the power sector and significant progress has been made with clearing the backlog of projects awaiting environmental approval.
-The revival of nine stranded gas-fired plants in March 2016 shows that gas power can operate economically without liquefied natural gas (LNG) subsidies. Although this reinforces our outlook that India's LNG imports will grow as a result of cheaper LNG spot prices, limitations to the gas pipeline network will constrain gas consumption by the power sector.
-India will maintain its position as a key global renewables market, as ongoing support from the government drives growth. The solar sector will register the greatest expansion, with high installation rates across both residential and utility-scale projects. Risks are emerging, and continued high levels of investor interest in the market will be contingent on the timely realisation of the vast existing project pipeline.

BMI Industry View ....... 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (India 2015-2021) . . . . 7
SWOT .... 9
Industry Forecast ...... 11
India Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (India 2015-2019) . . . . 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (India 2020-2025) . . . . 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector . . 11
India Power Forecast Scenario .. 12
Thermal Power Generation And Capacity ... 16
Nuclear Power Generation and Capacity .... 19
Hydropower Generation And Capacity ....... 21
Renewables Generation And Capacity 22
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (India 2014-2019) . . . . 26
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (India 2020-2025) . . . . 27
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (India 2014-2019) 28
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (India 2020-2025) 29
Electricity Consumption .. 29
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (India 2014-2019) . . 30
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (India 2020-2025) . . 30
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports . 30
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (India 2014-2019) . . . . 34
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (India 2020-2025) . . . . 34
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (India 2014-2019) . . . 34
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (India 2020-2025) . . . 34
Power Risk/Reward Index 35
Asia Power RRI: China's Score Slipping, India Pushing Ahead 35
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) . . . . 42
India Power Risk/Reward Index . 43
Rewards ....... 43
Risks .... 44
Market Overview ....... 45
Key Policies And Market Structure ...... 45
Regulation And Competition ..... 45
Sustainable Energy Policies ..... 47
Pricing . 49
India Power Projects Database .. 50
Table: India - Top 10 Power Projects By Capacity 50
Competitive Landscape .... 53
Power Grid ... 53
National Thermal Power Corporation 54
National Hydroelectric Power Corporation . 54
Nuclear Power Corporation Of India . 55
Company Profile 56
National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC) ...... 56
National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) ...... 59
Regional Overview .... 62
Asia - Asia Power: Shifting Fuel Dynamics, Coal Still King ..... 62
Glossary ..... 69
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 69
Methodology ...... 70
Methodology And Sources . 70
Industry Forecast Methodology 70
Sources 73
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ....... 73
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators . . 74
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 75
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