Turkey Power Report

 Published On: Jun, 2016 |    No of Pages: 60 |  Published By: BMI Power | Format: PDF
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BMI View: This quarter our core assumptions for the sector remain largely unchanged. We continue to expect Turkey to remain the most attractive power market in the CEE region this quarter and foresee power demand in Turkey to be robust over the next decade, given the high levels of investment being channelled into its power sector, the country's capacity expansion plans and its improving economic outlook. There is also considerable political backing for power sector expansion as the government continues to strive forgreater energy security and to lower the country's heavy reliance on imports of natural gas through expanding domestic capacity - with renewables and domestically sourced coal leading the way. Yet, while the outlook is bright, the development of Turkey's power sector is complicated by the county's precarious economic and political position.

Key Trends And Developments
- We expect thermal generation to dominate the electricity generation mix to the end of our forecast period.While coal- and gas-fired will grow in absolute terms, we expect both to lose their share of generation to hydropower and non-renewables (and potentially nuclear). By 2025 we expect gas to account for 40.14%of total electricity generation (as opposed to 45.78% in 2015), coal to account for 24.76%, hydropower toaccount for 18.77% and non-hydro renewables to generate 11.70% of all electricity.
- Natural gas will remain the predominant source of electricity in the Turkish power mix over our 10-year forecast period to 2025. The renegotiation of contracts to offset lira weakness - with contractsdenominated in USD - and additional imports coming, highlight the fuel's continued importance in themix. This view is strengthened by the fact there is significant gas infrastructure already in place - both pipeline inter connections and generation capacity - and the fall in gas prices, which in Turkey's case are closely indexed to the oil price.
BMI Industry View ... 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Turkey 2015-2021) . 7
SWOT ...... 9
Industry Forecast .. 11
Turkey Snapshot ........ 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Turkey 2015-2019) . 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Turkey 2020-2025) . 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector . . . . 11
Turkey Power Forecast Scenario .... 12
Privatisation Process Gaining Traction .. 13
A Combustible Mix .. 14
Gas Generation And Capacity Forecast ... 14
Coal Generation And Capacity Forecast . 16
Nuclear Generation And Capacity Forecast ...... 19
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 20
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast . 22
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity ........ 23
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019) 23
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2020-2025) 24
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019) . . 25
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2020-2025) . . 25
Electricity Consumption ..... 26
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019) . . . . 26
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2020-2025) . . . . 27
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports ........ 27
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019) 28
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2020-2025) 28
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019) 28
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2020-2025) 28
Industry Risk/Reward Index ... 29
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index ...... 29
Table: CEE Risk/Reward Index . 35
Turkey Power Risk/Reward Index ... 36
Rewards ........ 36
Risks .... 36
Market Overview ... 38
Key Policies And Market Structure .. 38
Regulation And Competition 38
Sustainable Energy Policies 40
Pricing . 42
Turkey Power Projects Database .... 43
Table: Major Projects - Power . 43
Competitive Landscape . 45
Regional Overview 47
CEE Power Regional Overview ...... 47
Glossary ........ 54
Table: Glossary Of Terms 54
Methodology . 55
Methodology And Sources .... 55
Industry Forecast Methodology .... 55
Sources 58
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 58
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators . . . . . 59
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 60
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