United Kingdom Power Report

 Published On: Jul, 2016 |    No of Pages: 81 |  Published By: BMI Power | Format: PDF
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BMI View: The UK's decision to leave the EU has had little impact on our already-muted forecasts for the UK power sector. Our forecasts for conventional power generation were already downbeat due to a failure to mobilise investment into new capacity - with economic and political uncertainty following the Brexit vote only serving to cement this prevailing view.

Latest Updates & Structural Trends
-The material impact of Brexit on our power forecasts - at this stage - is minimal. We do not anticipate major changes to regulation or climate targets (although meeting them remains a different matter) and maintain that electricity generation will grow by an annual average of just 0.3% between 2016 and 2025, with capacity growing by an annual average of 0.5% and consumption growing at 0.4%.
-We have left our forecasts for generation and capacity unchanged because they already reflect a failure to mobilise investment into conventional generation capacity, which will ensure supply margins remain tight over the next few years. With few conventional power projects moving out of planning and into the construction phase, we have long argued that it is unclear as to how the government would realise its plans to draw GBP100bn into the power sector by the early 2020s - and Brexit has cemented this view.
-We still expect the UK to follow through with plans to close all remaining coal capacity by 2025 as most remaining plans are about 50 years old and the best case for new nuclear capacity is it will be delayed further. In this environment, gas power generation remains the most viable alternative.
-A major downside risk to our forecast is that investment in the conventional power sector now collapses completely, planned cross-border transmission links could be delayed and capacity margins narrow further as ageing capacity is taken offline without being replaced. The UK may be left with no other option than to extend the lives of remaining coal plants in the absence of other alternatives - reneging on its plan to shut all coal facilities by 2025.
-The biggest upside is the new post-Brexit government, under the leadership of Prime Minister Theresa May, may decide to pursue fiscal stimulus measures in order to show the UK is still open for business and - with the government pushing ahead with flagship infrastructure projects such as Hinkley Point C and a new fleet of gas power plants.

BMI Industry View . 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (United Kingdom 2015-2021) . . . 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast .. 9
United Kingdom Snapshot .. 9
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (United Kingdom 2015-2019) . . 9
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (United Kingdom 2020-2025) . . 9
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector . 9
United Kingdom Power Forecast Scenario 10
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity ... 10
Table: UK - Coal Capacity . 21
Table: UK Planned Nuclear Projects . . . 28
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2019) . . 30
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2020-2025) . . 31
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2019) . . 32
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2020-2025) . . 33
Electricity Consumption . 33
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 34
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 35
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports . 35
Table: Planned Interconnections Will Boost Power Supply 37
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2019) . . 37
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2020-2025) . . 38
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2019) . . 38
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2020-2025) . . 38
Industry Risk/Reward Index ..... 39
Europe - NAWE Power RRI: North America Eclipses Western Europe ........ 39
United Kingdom Power Risk/Reward Index .......... 45
Rewards 45
Risks ..... 46
Market Overview . 47
Key Policies And Market Structure 47
Regulation And Competition ....... 47
Table: Key Components Of The Energy Bill 49
Sustainable Energy Policies ....... 50
Pricing .. 51
United Kingdom Power Projects Database 52
Competitive Landscape . 55
EDF Energy ...... 55
National Grid .... 55
E.ON .... 56
RWE npower ..... 56
SSE ...... 57
Scottish Power ... 57
Centrica 57
Company Profile .. 59
EDF ....... 59
Table: EDF's 2015 Key Financial Results . . 61
Table: France's Energy Transition Law - Main Provisions 64
Regional Overview ......... 67
NAWE Power Key Themes 67
Glossary .... 75
Table: Glossary Of Terms . . 75
Methodology ........ 76
Methodology And Sources 76
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 76
Sources . 79
Risk/Reward Index Methodology . 79
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators . . . 80
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 81
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