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BMI View: Over the next decade, the Kenyan power sector will be characterised
by strong growth in nonhydropower renewable capacity. A focus on geothermal will
ensure a non-intermittent supply of renewable energy and enable the country to
be a non-hydropower renewable out performer in Sub-Saharan Africa. Continued
investments into grid infrastructure and interconnections will enable the
increase in electrification rates as well as electricity trading capacity.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
-The development of the 700-megawatt (MW) gas-fired power plant in Mombasa has
been cancelled due to concerns that surplus supply will lead to high electricity
costs for both homes and businesses.
-We maintain our forecasts from last quarter for thermal power generation in
Kenya. The increase in non hydropower
renewable generation - especially non-intermittent geothermal power - appears to
be crowding out thermal power investments. The cancellation of the Mombasa
gas-fired power plant over fears of overcapacity driving up consumer costs seems
to confirm this.
-KenGen has stated that it will start construction of a 140MW geothermal power
plant in Olkaria by the end of 2016. We have included the plant into our
forecasts for 2018.
-The Rural Electrification Authority has announced that by July 2016, it will
start construction on a 55MW solar park in Garissa. The solar plant is also
currently included in our forecasts for 2018.
-We maintain our forecasts for hydropower from the previous quarter. We do not
forecast any new hydropower capacity coming online over our forecast period and
expect hydropower generation to remain at an annual average of between 4.3
terawatt hours (TWh) and 4.5TWh over our 10-year forecast period up until 2025.
-Kenya's electrification rate has increased to 50% and the government is
planning to increase this level to 70% by mid-2017 through the Last Mile
-Lamu County has been connected to the national grid after having to depend on
diesel-fired generators for the past 53 years.