France Renewables Report

 Published On: May, 2016 |    No of Pages: 46 |  Published By: BMI Renewables | Format: PDF
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BMI View: Increased regulatory clarity, in form of the passing of the energy transition bill and the adoption of ambitious long-term targets, will be conducive to robust renewables capacity growth in France over the next decade. Robust government support across the renewables sector will further underpin France's emergence as relatively attractive renewables market in Europe.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends
■ France hosted the UN COP21 climate conference in December 2015 on the back of having announced ambitious renewables growth targets in November 2015. The government announced updated and bolstered renewables targets just days after the official signing of the COP21 document in April, signalling the country aims to take a proactive role in the green energy agenda.
■ A 63.2GW capacity cap on nuclear power in line with the Energy Transition Bill that was passed in the lower and the upper house in July 2015 coupled with the decline in thermal-fired power generation - with coal capacity being phased-down due to stringent carbon emissions requirements - means that renewables will play an important role in the French power mix over the next decade. This will in part also be driven by French aims to sustain robust electricity exports. We note that a total of 2.4GW of interconnection capacity to the UK is currently under planning.
■ The second solar power tender in France held in August 2015 was doubled by the government from 400MW to 800MW as a result of the strong investor interest and the attractive bids put forward by project developers. A total of 4,350MW of solar power-generating capacity is scheduled to be procured in tenders between 2016 and 2019. The government aims to deploy 20.2GW by 2023.
■ We forecast non-hydropower renewables capacity to grow by an annual average of 7.1% between 2016 and 2025. As a result, the segment will comprise about 10.4% of total power generation in 2025. This will be a result of the lack of firm measures supporting a targeted phase-down of nuclear power over the next decade, as we expect the sector to comprise about 75% of total power generation leading up to 2025 (despite a target to lower the share to 50% by that year).

BMI Industry View . 7
Table: Renewables Headline Forecasts (France 2015-2021)   . 7
Latest Updates And Structural Trends ...... 7
SWOT .. 8
Industry Forecast .. 9
France Renewables Forecast Scenario ...... 9
Latest Updates ....... 9
Structural Trends . 11
Table: The Energy Transition Bill       . . . . 11
Table: Ambitious Targets To Be Supported By Policy    . . 13
Table: Solar Power Tariffs Falls In Second Capacity Tender   18
Table: Solar Power Tenders - Capacity On Offer, By Year And Type . . . 19
Table: Limited Biomass Capacity On Offer      21
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (France 2014-2019)24
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (France 2020-2025)25
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (France 2014-2019)            . . 26
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (France 2020-2025)            . . 27
France Renewables Projects Database .... 28
Table: France - Top 10 Renewables Projects By Capacity (MW)  . . 28
Industry Risk/Reward Index ... 29
France Renewables Risk/Reward Index .... 29
Rewards ... 29
Risks ........ 30
Market Overview . 31
Sustainable Energy Policy and Infrastructure ..... 31
Targets (Renewables And Emissions) ..... 31
Table: Ambitious Renewables Targets       31
Subsidies .. 32
Infrastructure ...... 33
Competitive Landscape  36
Electricité de France (EDF) ....... 36
Engie (GDF Suez)  37
Alstom ..... 38
Areva ....... 39
Glossary ..... 40
Table: Glossary Of Terms         40
Methodology ........ 41
Methodology And Sources . 41
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 41
Sources .... 43
Risk/Reward Index Methodology . 43
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Index Indicators    . . . . . 45
Table: Weighting Indicators        . . . . 46
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