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In 2012, the industrial production index for chemicals declined 0.7% on
average, while for rubber and plastic products it plummeted an average of 9.0%,
compared with growth of 0.2% and -1.5% respectively in 2011. In the first four
months of 2013, the chemicals production index fell by a further 7.3% while the
rubber and plastics index fell by 5.0%. This signalled a deterioration of
chemical and petrochemicals performance in H113. Although there was an uptick in
April, the operating environment has not changed radically to support a
sustained recovery.With the rest of the eurozone caught up in a
pronounced slowdown, Spain's capacity to export its way out of recession has
disappeared entirely. We estimated that GDP contracted 1.4% in 2012 and the
recession should deepen in 2013, when growth should fall to -1.7%. Only a fiscal
stimulus is likely to provide a turnaround to escape the debt-deflationary trap
Spain is in, but this appears off the cards over the next year.
Industry View 7SWOT 9Political 10Economic 11Business Environment 12Industry Forecast 13Table: Spain Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals - Historical Data & Forecasts 15Macroeconomic Forecast 17Economic Analysis 17Table: Spain - Economic Activity 21Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 22Europe Petrochemicals Risk Reward Ratings 22Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 26Spain Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 27Market Overview 28Table: Spain's Polymer Capacity 30Industry Trends And Developments 31Table: Refineries In Spain 32Company Profile 33Cia Española de Petróleos (Cepsa) 33Repsol YPF 36Table: Repsol - Financial Results (EURmn) 37Regional Overview 38Europe Overview 38Declining Capacities 39Table: European Cracker Capacities, 2013 44Global Industry Overview 48A Stable 2013, Leading To Growth In 2014? 48Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013 50Long-Term Growth 50Shale: The Future Of Feedstock? 52Threats To growth 55Global Oil Product Price Outlook 55Methodology 55Crude Price Forecasts 56Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl) 56Variance Across Product Markets 56Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads 59Weak Demand Persists 60Risks To Outlook 61Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl 62Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity 63Naphtha: US Gas Hits Demand 66Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Subsidies & Fuel Efficiency Cap Upward Movement 69Jet Fuel: Limited Upward Movement 71Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes 73Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest 73Demographic Forecast 77Table: Spain's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 78Table: Spain's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 79Table: Spain's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 80Table: Spain's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 80Glossary 81Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 81Methodology 82Industry Forecast Methodology 82Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 84Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Rating Indicators 86Table: Weighting Of Indicators 87