Spain Petrochemicals Report

 Published On: Jan, 2014 |    No of Pages: 87 |  Published By: BMI Petrochemicals | Format: PDF
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In 2012, the industrial production index for chemicals declined 0.7% on average, while for rubber and plastic products it plummeted an average of 9.0%, compared with growth of 0.2% and -1.5% respectively in 2011. In the first four months of 2013, the chemicals production index fell by a further 7.3% while the rubber and plastics index fell by 5.0%. This signalled a deterioration of chemical and petrochemicals performance in H113. Although there was an uptick in April, the operating environment has not changed radically to support a sustained recovery.

With the rest of the eurozone caught up in a pronounced slowdown, Spain's capacity to export its way out of recession has disappeared entirely. We estimated that GDP contracted 1.4% in 2012 and the recession should deepen in 2013, when growth should fall to -1.7%. Only a fiscal stimulus is likely to provide a turnaround to escape the debt-deflationary trap Spain is in, but this appears off the cards over the next year.

Industry View 7
Political 10
Economic 11
Business Environment 12
Industry Forecast 13
Table: Spain Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals - Historical Data & Forecasts 15
Macroeconomic Forecast 17
Economic Analysis 17
Table: Spain - Economic Activity 21
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 22
Europe Petrochemicals Risk Reward Ratings 22
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 26
Spain Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 27
Market Overview 28
Table: Spain's Polymer Capacity 30
Industry Trends And Developments 31
Table: Refineries In Spain 32
Company Profile 33
Cia Española de Petróleos (Cepsa) 33
Repsol YPF 36
Table: Repsol - Financial Results (EURmn) 37
Regional Overview 38
Europe Overview 38
Declining Capacities 39
Table: European Cracker Capacities, 2013 44
Global Industry Overview 48
A Stable 2013, Leading To Growth In 2014? 48
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013 50
Long-Term Growth 50
Shale: The Future Of Feedstock? 52
Threats To growth 55
Global Oil Product Price Outlook 55
Methodology 55
Crude Price Forecasts 56
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl) 56
Variance Across Product Markets 56
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads 59
Weak Demand Persists 60
Risks To Outlook 61
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl 62
Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity 63
Naphtha: US Gas Hits Demand 66
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Subsidies & Fuel Efficiency Cap Upward Movement 69
Jet Fuel: Limited Upward Movement 71
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes 73
Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest 73
Demographic Forecast 77
Table: Spain's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 78
Table: Spain's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 79
Table: Spain's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 80
Table: Spain's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 80
Glossary 81
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 81
Methodology 82
Industry Forecast Methodology 82
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 84
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Rating Indicators 86
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 87

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