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BMI View: Argentina's consumer electronics market performance has been driven
by economic factors in recent years, as devaluations in 2014 and late 2015 hit
affordability. As a result there is pent-up demand that we expect to be unlocked
as the economy improves from 2017, and will enable much stronger performance
over the medium term. We forecast a CAGR of 10.0% over 2016-2020, with all three
segments set to be boosted by peso appreciation and higher consumer confidence.
The stronger peso in a more liberal economic regime could however put a squeeze
on domestic electronics manufacturers, but with a reliance on imported
components they should be able to remain competitive as their cost profile
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
-Computer Hardware Sales: USD1.6bn in 2016 to USD2.3bn in 2020, corresponding to
a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.6%. Pent-up demand after disruption
over 2014-2016 means there is potential for strong growth over the medium term,
but downside should smartphones cannibalise retail PC sales to a greater extent
than we currently envisage.
-AV Sales: USD1.6bn in 2016 to USD2.3bn in 2020, a CAGR of 8.4%. Support from
peso appreciation in addition to an improvement in TV-set market dynamics will
enable AV demand to recover, but even by 2020 it will still remain below the
2012 peak at the height of flat-panel TV-set upgrades.
-Handset Sales: USD2.2bn in 2016 to USD3.3bn in 2020, a CAGR of 10.7%.
Smartphone penetration is low compared to income levels and so upgrade
opportunities still exist in Argentina that should be unlocked and will drive
strong growth as the economy improves.