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BMI View: We downgraded the consumer electronics spending forecast for
Australia in the Q416 update, and now envisage total device spending will grow
at a CAGR of 0.5% over 2016-2020 to USD12.5bn. Our USD forecast was affected by
a revised AUD/USD outlook that no longer envisages AUD appreciation over
2018-2020. The device trend assessment is however largely unchanged and we still
expect subdued volume growth across the market as a consequence of maturity, but
with pockets of opportunity for vendors such as hybrid notebooks and Ultra-HD TV
Latest Updates And Industry Developments
-Computer Hardware Sales: USD5.2bn in 2016 to USD5.0bn in 2020. Hybrid notebooks
are expected to be a growth area in what will otherwise largely be a flat market
based on replacement device sales.
-AV Sales: USD2.6bn in 2016 to USD2.6bn in 2020. AV market will not return close
to previous highs, but after multi-year decline in value Ultra-HD TV set
upgrades are a positive at the high-end of the market that should return the
segment to modest growth from 2016.
-Handset Sales: USD4.5bn in 2016 to USD4.9bn in 2020. A lucrative market based
around flagship smartphones from Apple and Samsung, with upside from wearable
devices, but core scenario is for only modest medium term growth due to