Transparent Conductive Films (TCF) 2016-2026: Forecasts, Markets, Technologies

 Published On: Nov, 2016 |    No of Pages: 173 |  Published By: IDTechEx | Format: PDF
Request Free Sample
At IDTechEx we have been closely following and analysing the transparent conductive film market for the past five years. To this end, we interviewed more than 40 innovators, suppliers and end-users, organised several conferences around the world, developed a detailed and constantly updated forecast datasheet, and advised our clients globally either through consulting or subscriptions. We have cultivated strong relationship with key industry players, allowing us unprecedented insight into this market, and our close engagement with users and investors means that we are familiar with prevalent questions. This market study is the distilled and processed result of our continuous endeavours.
 
End markets changing, albeit slowly
 
The transparent conductive film market will reach US$1.2bn in 2025 at the film level (ITO-on-glass, LCD displays, OLED displays and thin film PV are excluded). ITO films will continue their dominance, but silver nanowires and metal mesh will each also reach $126m and $191m in 2025.
 
Today the market is completely dominated by touch related applications although other applications will begin to take a notable share of this growing pie from 2020 onwards. These applications include smart windows, OLED lighting, emerging photovoltaics, reflective displays, etc. They, together with larger-sized or flexible touch screens, will bring about a new set of performance targets.

The incumbent flexes its muscles
 
Indium-tin-oxide (ITO) films dominate the transparent conductive film market. Strong trends however seemed to undermine its dominance for a long time. The incumbent had reached its performance limit, so the story went, and therefore could not service the emerging market needs such as ultralow sheet resistance and high mechanical flexibility. This is where alternatives were to step in, succeeding as substitutes thanks to both a performance and cost benefit.
 
These trends are real and are changing the market, albeit with a slower pace than many anticipated. Predictably though, the incumbents have responded to protect their share. They have slashed their selling prices and expanded production capacity. Their new pricing strategy is to lower their price piecemeal every time an alternative is about to win business, while their capacity expansion strategy is aimed at assuaging end-user fears that the supply-demand relationship is too tight.
 
Make or break years for ITO alternatives
 
This is all good news for end-users but spells a difficult period of ITO alternative suppliers. Indeed, this market dynamic is making the next two years make-or-break years for ITO alternative suppliers. The barriers to entry have been raised again, whilst at the same time the market segments in which ITO alternatives commanded a performance advantage have disappointed.
 
For example, the sales of large-sized touch displays have massively undershot expectations whilst the emergence of plastic but rigid touch displays has proved no panacea because it barely budged ITO from its comfort zone.
 
These market conditions herald an overdue consolidation period. The market forces will weed out suppliers of mediocre alternatives and/or poorly-differentiated companies. This is essential because the number of ITO alternative suppliers has mushroomed recently with the proliferation of many 'me too' players. The growing market pie will not sustain all.
 
The performance bar has been raised in the market
 
Silver nanowires and metal mesh offer a lower sheet resistance than both ITO and other alternatives without significantly compromising optical quality. Their pricing strategy continues to be based on undercutting ITO to maintain a more-for-less value proposition, although this is becoming increasingly challenging.
 
In fact, they have increased the performance bar so high that the likes of carbon nanotubes and graphene will be blocked out of the main markets and be pushed towards niche use cases. This suggests that developers of these technologies need to be imaginative again and build on their stronger differentiators such as stretchability, thermoformability, etc. This change of focus is already underway but will come too late for some.
 
The battle between metal mesh suppliers will be fought on narrowing the linewidth and improving throughput and yield (biggest cost unknown/driver). Amongst silver nanowire suppliers, haze was a point of contention, but now attention is focused on innovation at the formulation level. Here, the first mover advantage will also matter whilst the IP landscape is now no longer white, which further prevents access to new comers.
Leading ITO alternatives are here to stay
 
We believe that the value proposition for the leading alternatives is still strong. Indeed, we anticipate that silver nanowires and metal mesh will reach $126m and $191m in 2025, respectively. We anticipate major adoption announcements soon.
 
Their claimed more-for-less value proposition is however increasingly looking like a more-for-same one. The market penetration journey will therefore be slow as ITO is just about good enough in most existing applications.
 
Next phase of innovation
 
We feel that the next phase of innovation needs to disrupt the way transparent conducting films are patterned. This a major cost driver and a particular handicap for the incumbent, despite the largely depreciated CapEx (barring new unutilized capacity brought online last year). We already see early-stage innovative solutions being touted around. It is simply the case now that being a little bit better and a little cheaper will no longer cut it in this hugely competitive field.
 
What does this report offer
 
This report provides a detailed assessment of the transparent conductive film and glass markets. It provides a data-driven and quantitative analysis and benchmarking of the incumbents and all the emerging options. We have interviewed and profiled all the key suppliers and innovators of each type technology, providing you with critical and analysed business intelligence (more than 40 interview-based profiles).
 
1. Insights into technologies, markets and players
2. Interview-based company profiles for more than 40 suppliers of ITO and ITO alternatives
3. Ten-year market forecast in value (USD) and area (sqm) segmented by the following applications:
- Mobile phones (including smart phones), tablets, notebooks, monitors and TV
- Touch-enabled wearable devices
- Organic photovoltaics and dye-sensitised solar cells
- OLED lighting
- EL displays
- Smart windows
4. Ten-year market forecast in value (USD) and area (sqm) segmented by the following technologies:
- ITO-on-Glass
- ITO-on-PET
- Carbon nanotubes
- Graphene
- Silver nanowires
- Metal mesh (printed, etched, embossed, etc)
- PEDOT
- Other emerging solutions
5. Detailed, data-driven, and quantitative assessment and benchmarking of the above-listed technologies on the following basis:
- Sheet resistance vs transmission chart
- Flexibility and stretchability data
- Reduction and deposition method
- Detailed cost structures
- Product and prototype launches
- Challenges such as haze, material availability, linewidth visibility, Moire patterns, stability, etc
6. Detailed application assessment including trends and detailed target/addressable market forecasts for the above-listed applications
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2. TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT
2.1. ITO glass assessment: performance, manufacture & limitations
2.2. ITO glass in LCD displays
2.3. ITO film assessment: performance, manufacture and market trends
2.4. The Boom and Bust Cycle
2.5. ITO film shortcomings: flexibility
2.6. ITO film shortcomings: limited sheet resistance
2.7. ITO film shortcomings: index matching
2.8. ITO film shortcomings: thinness
2.9. ITO film shortcomings: price falls and commoditization
2.10. Indium prices fluctuations and single-supply-risk
2.11. Recycling comes to the rescue?
2.12. ITO-on-PET production capacity
2.13. Indium-free metal oxides win in high temperature applications
2.14. Silver nanowire transparent conductive films: principles
2.15. Silver nanowire transparent conductive films: growth and deposition
2.16. Silver nanowire transparent conductive films: performance levels and value proposition
2.17. Silver nanowire transparent conductive films: flexibility
2.18. Silver nanowire transparent conductive films: haze, migration, and single supplier risk
2.19. Comparing manufacturing cost of Ag NW and ITO
2.20. Silver nanowire transparent conductive films: existing commercial applications on the market
2.21. Silver nanowire transparent conductive films: latest market developments and news
2.22. Hitach Chemical's TCTF
2.23. Key Ag silver nanowire players
2.24. Metal mesh transparent conductive films: operating principles
2.25. Direct printed metal mesh transparent conductive films: performance
2.26. Direct printed metal mesh transparent conductive films: major shortcomings
2.27. Key players
2.28. Embossing/Imprinting metal mesh TCFs
2.29. Uni-Pixel's metal mesh performance
2.30. Unipixel in commercial products
2.31. Yield issues for embossed metal mesh?
2.32. Conductive Inkjet Technology's photo-patterned metal mesh TCF
2.33. Ateml offloads assets to UniPixel
2.34. O-Film's metal mesh TCF technology
2.35. MNTech's metal mesh TCF technology
2.36. ITRI's approach to transparent conducting films
2.37. Metal mesh TCF is flexible
2.38. Cost breakdown of metal mesh and yield
2.39. SWOT analysis on embossed metal mesh TCFs
2.40. Key players
2.41. Fujifilm's photo-patterned metal mesh TCF
2.42. Toppan Printing's copper mesh transparent conductive films
2.43. Dai Nippon Printing's transparent conductive film technology
2.44. Rolith's novel photo patterning technique
2.45. 3M's photo-patterned metal mesh TCF
2.46. Tanaka Metal's metal mesh technology
2.47. LCY's metal mesh technology
2.48. Screen Holding's metal mesh technology
2.49. Consistent Materials' photoresist for metal mesh
2.50. Asahi Kasei ultra-fine roll-to-roll imprinting
2.51. Komura-Tech's gravure offset metal mesh printing
2.52. SWOT analysis on photo patterned metal mesh TCFs
2.53. Key players
2.54. Carbon nanotubes: background
2.55. Basic MWCNT product metrics
2.56. Basic SWCNT product metrics
2.57. CNT production capacity by supplier and CNT type
2.58. Carbon nanotube transparent conductive films: performance
2.59. Carbon nanotube transparent conductive films: performance of commercial films on the market
2.60. Carbon nanotube transparent conductive films: matched index
2.61. Carbon nanotube transparent conductive films: mechanical flexibility
2.62. Carbon nanotube transparent conductive films: stretchability as a key differentiator for in-mould electronics
2.63. Example of 3D touch-sensing surface with CNTs
2.64. Example of wearable device using CNT
2.65. Key players
2.66. Graphene: background
2.67. Numerous ways of making graphene
2.68. Quantitative mapping of graphene morphologies on the market
2.69. Chemical vapour deposition
2.70. The transfer challenge
2.71. Roll-to-roll transfer of CVD graphene
2.72. Novel methods for transferring CVD graphene
2.73. Sony's approach to transfer of CVD process
2.74. Sony's CVD graphene approach
2.75. Wuxi Graphene Film Co's CVD graphene progress
2.76. Wuxi Graphene Film Co's CVD graphene progress
2.77. Production cost of CVD graphene
2.78. Direct CVD graphene growth on an insulating substrate?
2.79. Graphene transparent conductive film: performance levels
2.80. Doping as a strategy for improving graphene TCF performance
2.81. Be wary of extraordinary results for graphene
2.82. Graphene transparent conducting films: flexibility
2.83. Graphene transparent conducting films: thinness and barrier layers
2.84. SWOT analysis on graphene TCFs
2.85. Key players
2.86. PEDOT:PSS
2.87. Patterning PEDOT:PSS
2.88. Performance of PEDOT:PSS has drastically improved
2.89. PEDOT:PSS is now on a par with ITO-on-PET
2.90. PEDOT:PSS is mechanically flexible
2.91. PEDOT:PSS is stretchable and can be thermoformed
2.92. Stability and spatial uniformity of PEDOT:PSS
2.93. Nippon Chemi-Con's polymeric transparent conductive film
2.94. Commercial product using PEDOT:PSS
2.95. Use case examples of PEDOT:PSS TCFs
2.96. Key players
2.97. Fine wire TCF technology
2.98. Performance of fine wire large-sized touch displays on the market
2.99. SWOT analysis on micro wire TCFs
2.100. CimaTech's self-assembled nanoparticle technology
2.101. Examples of Cima Nanotech's technology
2.102. ClearJet's inkjet printed nanoparticle-based TCFs
2.103. E-Fly Corporation's nanoparticle-based TCFs
2.104. Quantitative benchmarking of different TCF technologies
2.105. Technology comparison
3. APPLICATIONS
3.1. Consumer electronic device shipment forecasts
3.2. Smart phones have been growing in size
3.3. Growth in smart phones to come in the low-cost brackets
3.4. Chinese brands are stealing market share in China
3.5. Smart phone market is highly diverse and fragmented
3.6. Different capacitive touch architectures
3.7. Share of different touch screen architectures
3.8. Optical touch systems for large area touch displays
3.9. Assessing different optical touch technologies
3.10. Assessing different optical touch technologies
3.11. Metal mesh in large area capacitive touch screens
3.12. Metal mesh in large area capacitive touch screens
3.13. OLED lighting market
3.14. Latest OLED lighting market announcements
3.15. Integrated substrates for OLED lighting
3.16. Market Forecast for Organic photovoltaics
3.17. Latest news on organic photovoltaics
3.18. Segmented market forecast for flexible OLED displays
3.19. OLED display revenue by technology
3.20. Smart window production capacity by technology & player
3.21. Smart window market projection
3.22. Market Forecasts
3.23. TCF film prices used in our projections
3.24. Ten-year technology-segmented transparent conducting layer forecasts in $
3.25. Ten-year technology-segmented transparent conducting film forecasts in area
3.26. Ten-year technology-segmented transparent conducting glass forecasts in area
3.27. Ten-year application-segmented for ITO films
3.28. Ten-year application-segmented for ITO glass
3.29. Ten-year application-segmented for silver nanowire TCFs
3.30. Ten-year application-segmented for metal mesh TCFs
3.31. Ten-year application-segmented for PEDOT TCFs
4. COMPANY INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES
5. COMPANY INTERVIEWS
5.1. Arkema, France
5.2. Blue Nano, USA
5.3. Bluestone Global Tech, USA
5.4. C3Nano
5.5. Cambrios, USA
5.6. Canatu, Finland
5.7. Carestream Advanced Materials, USA
5.8. Charmtron Inc
5.9. Chasm(ex SWeNT)
5.10. Cima Nanotech, USA
5.11. ClearJet, Israel
5.12. Dai Nippon Printing, Japan
5.13. Displax Interactive Systems, Portugal
5.14. Epigem Ltd
5.15. E-Fly Optoelectronic Materials Co., Ltd.
5.16. Goss International Americas, USA
5.17. Graphene Frontiers
5.18. Graphene Laboratories, USA
5.19. Graphene Square
5.20. Graphenea
5.21. Haydale Ltd
5.22. Heraeus, Germany
5.23. Kimoto
5.24. Komori Corporation
5.25. Multitaction
5.26. Nanogap, Spain
5.27. NanoIntegris
5.28. Nanomade
5.29. Neonode
5.30. OCSiAl
5.31. O-Film, China
5.32. PolyIC, Germany
5.33. Poly-Ink, France
5.34. Promethean Particles
5.35. Seashell Technology, USA
5.36. Showa Denko, Japan
5.37. Showa Denko K.K
5.38. Sinovia Technologies, USA
5.39. SouthWest NanoTechnologies, USA
5.40. Toppan Printing
5.41. UniPixel, USA
5.42. University of Exeter, UK
5.43. Visual Planet, UK
5.44. Wuxi Graphene Film
5.45. XinNano Materials, Taiwan
5.46. Zytronic, UK
5.47. Zyvex
6. COMPANY PROFILES
6.1. Agfa-Gevaert, Belgium
6.2. 3M, USA
6.3. Atmel, USA
6.4. C3Nano, USA
6.5. Chasm Technologies, USA
6.6. Cheil Industries, South Korea
6.7. Chimei Innolux, Taiwan
6.8. Chisso Corp., Japan
6.9. Conductive Inkjet Technologies (Carlco), USA
6.10. Dontech Inc., USA
6.11. Duke University, USA
6.12. Eastman Kodak, USA
6.13. Eikos, USA
6.14. ELK, South Korea
6.15. Evaporated Coatings Inc., USA
6.16. Evonik, Germany
6.17. Fujifilm Ltd, Japan
6.18. Fujitsu, Japan
6.19. Gunze Ltd, Japan
6.20. Hitachi Chemical, Japan
6.21. Holst Center, Netherlands
6.22. Iljin Display, South Korea
6.23. Institute of Chemical and Engineering Sciences (ICES), Singapore
6.24. Join Well Technology Company Ltd., Taiwan
6.25. J-Touch, Taiwan
6.26. KAIST, South Korea
6.27. Komoro, Japan
6.28. KPT Shanghai Keyan Phosphor Technology Co. Ltd., China
6.29. Lee Tat Industrial Development (LTI) Ltd, Hong Kong
6.30. LG Chem, South Korea
6.31. Maxfilm, South Koera
6.32. Mianyang Prochema Plastics Co., Ltd., China
6.33. Mirae/MNTec, South Korea
6.34. Mitsui & Co. (U.S.A.), Inc., Mitsui Ltd., Japan
6.35. Mutto Optronics, China
6.36. Nagase Corporation, Japan
6.37. Nanopyxis, South Korea
6.38. National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Japan
6.39. National University of Singapore (NUS), Singapore
6.40. Nicanti, Finland
6.41. Nitto Denko, Japan
6.42. Nouvo Film
6.43. Oike & CO., Ltd., Japan
6.44. Oji Paper Group, Japan
6.45. Panipol Ltd., Finland
6.46. Perceptive Pixel, USA
6.47. Polychem UV/EB, Taiwan
6.48. Power Booster, China
6.49. Rice University, USA
6.50. Rolith, USA
6.51. Samsung Electronics, South Korea
6.52. Sang Bo Corporation (SBK), South Korea
6.53. Sekisui Nano Coat Technology Ltd., Japan
6.54. Sheldahl, USA
6.55. Sigma-Aldrich, USA
6.56. Sony Corporation, Japan
6.57. Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Inc., Japan
6.58. Suzutora, Japan
6.59. TDK, Japan
6.60. Teijin Kasei America, Inc. / Teijin Chemical, USA
6.61. Top Nanosys, South Korea
6.62. Toray Advanced Film (TAF), Japan
6.63. Toyobo, Japan
6.64. UCLA, USA
6.65. Unidym, USA
6.66. University of Michigan, USA
6.67. VisionTek Systems Ltd., UK
6.68. Young Fast Optoelectronics, Taiwan
If the above report does not have the information suitable for your business, we can provide custom research that can be lucrative for your business or enhance your profession.