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BMI View: We continue to maintain a positive outlook for the US consumer
electronics market in our Q316 report update. We believe that the US consumer
electronics market will remain the global leader in terms of market size and
adoption of latest technologies over the course of 2016 to 2020. In 2016 we will
see the overall market size expand by 2.0%, with the market reaching an
estimated total value of USD320.1bn. We forecast a consumer electronics market
2016-2020 CAGR of 1.6%, with total spending reaching USD340.1bn by end of 2020.
High device penetration rates, strong demand for the latest devices and short
replacement cycles make the US the most market lucrative for vendors - but high
penetration also results in diminished growth opportunities in some of the key
markets such as tablets and smartphones, particularly when compared with
emerging markets. Furthermore, over the medium term we believe questions still
remain about the sustainability of consumption in the absence of strong wage
growth and the fact that most sales will be upgrades rather than new customers.
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
-Computer Hardware Sales: USD200.4bn in 2015 to ISD220.6bnin 2020. Tablet
volumes continue to be squeezed by a diminished pool of first-time buyers and
lengthening replacement cycles, hence a stronger growth in the long-term.
-AV Sales: USD54.8bn in 2015 to USD57.2bn in 2020. Market will begin to rebound
after a contraction in 2015 driven by contractions in the digital camera market
and saturation in TV set sales.
-Handset Sales: USD58.7bn in 2015 to USD62.4bn in 2020. Growth is now expected
to be stronger in later years of forecast, but smartphone market maturity and
price pressures in the Android ecosystem will still mean handset market value
growth deceleration over the medium term.