OLEDs Lighting Global Market Forecast 2015-2025

 Published On: Sep, 2015 |    No of Pages: 425 |  Published By: ElectroniCast Consultants | Format: PPT+Excel
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ElectroniCast Consultants, a leading market & technology forecast consultancy, today announced their market forecast of the worldwide consumption of organic light emitting diodes (OLEDs) in lighting applications. 

OLED Description An organic light-emitting diode (OLED) is a light-emitting diode (LED) in which the emissive electroluminescent layer is a film of organic compounds, which emit light in response to an electric current. This layer of organic semiconductor material is situated between two electrodes. Generally, at least one of these electrodes is transparent. 

Lighting Applications The definition for lighting in this study includes general lighting, which is used to provide the main illumination of an area. The lighting category also includes specialized lighting, such as directional, supplementary, and architectural lighting, as well as OLED panels/tiles used in vehicles for the main purpose of lighting.  However, OLEDs used in signage, TVs, displays, and signals are not included in the market forecast data for this study. 

The increasing development of OLED technology in lighting is indeed encouraging, driven by the architectural lighting industry; therefore, full cooperation and partnerships with between the OLED device manufacturers and the architectural industry is of paramount importance, based on analysis by ElectroniCast Consultants. Since OLEDs can be fashioned onto large surfaces, they are a viable alternative to fluorescent tubes for building lighting or other applications.

The United States Department of Energy (DOE) estimates that lighting for buildings accounts for more than 20 percent of U.S. energy use. Over the next 20 years, the agency estimates that widespread adoption of LED and OLED lighting could reduce electricity demands 60 percent and prevent almost 260 metric tons of carbon emission.

OLED Level Quantified in the ElectroniCast Study Below in particular, are three levels (or “food chain”) pertaining to the OLED marketplace.  For the purposes of this ElectroniCast study, we quantify and provide a market forecast for “Level 2”

Level 1 – Organic Materials, anode and cathode

Level 2 – OLED Lighting panel or tile with initial integrated frames (Without electronics and driver)

Level 3 – OLED Module, one or more panels (tiles) with control circuits, other value added components

OLED devices will actually use a value-added OLED product, complete with the electronics (plugs and wires), driver integrated circuits, and possible structural packaging (cap, metallic/plastic panel frames). Also, even further, these packaged/equipped panels/tiles (also known as OLED modules) will typically be available as part of other value-added product, such as lamp-holders/fixtures.  Therefore, it is important to note that this market forecast data only quantifies the OLED device (sometimes referred to as a tile, light source, panel or sub-panel) and not the complete module, lamp/fixtures or other value-added product(s).

This report provides the market data by the following regional segments:

Global (Total)

- America
United States and Canada
Latin America


Northern Europe
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
Middle East and Africa


People’s Republic of China (PRC)
Republic of Korea (ROK)
Rest of APAC

This report provides the forecast by the following functions:

Consumption Value: US$, Million
Quantity: Number of square meter (m˛) in Millions
Average Selling Prices: ASP US$, per square meter

Market Forecast ElectroniCast projects that the worldwide consumption value of selected lighting OLEDs will reach $144 million in 2015; consumption value is forecast to increase at an average annual growth rate of 74.8 percent to nearly $2.36 billion in 2020. The total value of OLED lighting is forecast an increase to $6.7 billion in the year 2023, before slipping to $5.544 billion in 2025. Quantity/unit volume is forecast to continue to climb through 2025; however, sharp decreases in average selling prices will eventually cause the overall market value to decrease.  All values and prices in this report are at factory as-shipped levels, and are in current dollars, which include the effect of a forecasted 5 percent annual inflation rate over the forecast period.

According to ElectroniCast, there is enough overall OLED interest and activity in 2015 by substantial leading lighting competitors with existing capable manufacturing capabilities, working with evolving technology, to pushing for “mass-production”.  Also, industry players have been very active in establishing the required strategic supplier and IP agreements, as well as progressing in sales/distribution channel (planning) strategy.

Therefore, the stage is set for a “Build-it and They Will Come” marketing strategy. The question is, how many customers will come and when.  At the same time, other (competing) lighting solutions already work, have substantial customer base and established sales/distribution channels, occupying store footprint; therefore, OLED will need to find unique style/designs to provide a common-sense approach to providing lighting solutions that the other technologies do not currently provide.

Beyond the “light-bulb” Mentality - The ElectroniCast market opportunity analysis (MOA) shows the OLED panel market should not be limited to (only) lamps and typical (conventional) lamp fixtures for general lighting (table lamps, wall/ceiling fixtures).  ElectroniCast assumes that the OLED panel general-lighting market will grow beyond the “light-bulb” mentality to a broad base of applications, which currently may not even be in the idea-stage. Applications that have been mentioned by industry participants include (but not limited to) OLED incorporated into the following applications:

Wall panels
Ceiling panels
Mirrors with light function
Embedded into furniture
Structural lighting
Other (almost endless possibilities)

ElectroniCast Methodology

Market analysis and technology forecasting are complex tasks. Any predictions of the shape and trends of technology and economic movement start from the notion that the germ of what will be important tomorrow is present, although smaller or larger or in a different form, in our environment today. However, taking as a basis for a prediction the assumptions of current, conventional belief creates a set of preconceived notions that can lead to serious mistakes. ElectroniCast, instead, looks to the basic driving forces.
The future market for an OLED consumed in selected applications depends on a number of factors, including: User equipment demand, for example – specific applications, energy efficiency requirements and government regulations/ laws/mandates/low carbon footprint, future-proofing (design and in technology), economy and investment community: new housing/building and/or renovation cycles, product life cycles, competing technologies/solutions, cost/benefit ratios, requirements driven by intelligent/digital building lighting controls, and others.

This study is based on analysis of information obtained continually over the past several years, but updated through the end of August 2015.  During this period, ElectroniCast analysts performed interviews with authoritative and representative individuals in the OLED and LED manufacturing (materials, chips, packaging, devices, associated parts/pieces, fittings/fixtures) and building/facility management, local/state and federal government policy and management, LED driver IC and micro-controllers, product distributors, retail store management, import/export, and other. The interviews were conducted principally with:

- Engineers, marketing personnel and management at manufacturers of OLEDs (materials, packaged OLEDs, lamps, fixtures, controls, systems) as well as other technologies.
- Design group leaders, engineers, marketing personnel and market planners at major users and potential users of OLEDs.
- Other industry experts, including those focused on standards activities, trade associations, and investments. 

The interviews covered issues of technology, R&D support, pricing, contract size, reliability, documentation, installation/maintenance crafts, standards, supplier competition and other topics.

Customers and distributors also were interviewed, to obtain their estimates of quantities received and average prices paid.  Customer estimates of historical and expected near term future growth of their application are obtained. Their views of use of new technology products were obtained.

The analyst then considered customer expectations of near term growth in their application, plus forecasted economic payback of investment, technology trends and changes in government regulations in the United Sates, to derive estimated growth rates of quantity and price of each product subset in each application. These forecasted growth rates are combined with the estimated baseline data to obtain the long-range forecasts at the lowest detailed level of each product and application.

A full review of published information was also performed to supplement information obtained through interviews. The following sources were reviewed:

- Professional technical journals and papers
- Trade press articles
- Technical conference proceedings
- Product literature
- Company profile and financial information
- Additional information based on previous ElectroniCast market studies
- Personal knowledge of the research team.

In analyzing and forecasting the complexities of the American and other world region markets for light emitting diode products, it is essential that the market research team have a good and a deep understanding of the technology and of the industry. ElectroniCast members who participated in this report were qualified.

Bottom-up Methodology - ElectroniCast forecasts, as illustrated in the forecast data structure, are developed initially at the lowest detail level, then summed to successively higher levels.

The background market research focuses on the amount of each type of product used in each application in the base year (2013), and the prices paid at the first transaction from the manufacturer. This forms the base year data. ElectroniCast analysts then forecast the growth rates in component quantity use in each application, along with price trends, based on competitive, economic and technology forecast trends, and apply these to derive long term forecasts at the lowest application levels. The usage growth rate forecasts depend heavily on analysis of overall end user trends toward equipment usage and economic payback.  Figure 3 further illustrates the research methodology regarding this study.

The calculation and analysis data spreadsheet technique is based upon input/output analysis, leveraging the quantitative consumption quantity, price and value of each item in each application at all levels to achieve reasonable quantitative conclusions; this interactive analysis concept, first applied on a major scale by Leonteff, of the US Department of Commerce, in the mid 1950s, was then adopted successfully by analyst/forecasting firms Quantum Science, Gnostic Concepts and (in 1981) by ElectroniCast.
Tables of Contents

1.  Executive Summary                                   
1.1 Overview                                       
1.2 Solid-State Lighting (SSL) Lamps & Light Fixtures Used in General Lighting           

2. OLED – Technology                                   

3.  OLED Lighting Market Forecast                                
3.1 Overview                                       
3.2 America Market Forecast                                   
3.3 EMEA Market Forecast                                   
3.4 APAC Market Forecast                                   

4. OLED Competitors & Related Entities                           
Acuity Brands, Inc.                                
Applied Materials, Inc.                                
AU Optronics Corporation                                
BASF / BASF Future Business GmbH                        
Blackbody (Astron FIAMM)                            
Cambrios Technologies Corporation                            
Chi Mei Group                                    
Corning Incorporated                                
Doosan Corporation Electro-Materials                        
Dow Electronic Materials (Dow Chemical Company)                    
Duksan Hi-Metal                                  
DuPont / DuPont Teijin Films                            
e-Ray Optoelectronics Technology Company                    
E2M Technology                                    
Fraunhofer Institute for Photonic Microsystems (IPMS) – COMEDD (Dresden)        
General Electric Company                                
Heraeus Precious Metals                                
Hodogaya Chemical Group                            
Idemitsu Kosan Company, Limited                            
Intrinsiq Materials, Inc. (IM)                            
Jusung Engineering Company, Limited                               
Kaneka Corporation                                
Kintec Company                                    
Konica Minolta Holdings, Incorporated                        
LG Electronics / LE Chem
LOMOX Limited                                    
Lumiotec Incorporated                                  
Merck KgaA - EMD Chemicals Group                        
MC Pioneer OLED Lighting Corporation (Mitsubishi Chemical and Pioneer)              
Mitsui Chemicals                                    
Moser Baer                                    
NEC Lighting, Limited                                
Nippon Electric Glass Company, Limited (NEG)                     
Nippon Steel and Sumikin Chemical Company Ltd.                    
Novaled GmbH                                    
OLEDWorks LLC                                    
OSRAM Opto Semiconductors GmbH (Siemens AG)                    
OTI Lumionics Inc. / aerelight                             
Panasonic Idemitsu OLED Lighting (PIOL)                        
Philips (Koninklijke Philips Electronics N.V.)                        
PolyIC GmbH & Co. KG (Leonhard Kurz Stiftung & Co. KG)                
PPG Industries Inc.                                
RITEK Corporation                                
ROHM Company Limited                                
SAES Getters (SAES Group)                            
Samsung Group / Cheil Industries / Novaled                        
Sanyo Chemical Industries                            
Schott AG                                    
Seiko Epson Corporation                                     
Showa Denko K.K.                                 
Solvay Group / Plextronics                             
Sumitomo Chemical                                
Sun Fine Chem (SFC)                                
Sunic Systems, Ltd.
Sung An Machinery Company Ltd. (SAM)                        
TechnoCorp Energy, LLC                                
Thorn Lighting Limited                                
Tianma Micro-electronics Company                        
Tokyo Electron Limited (TEL)                            
Tohoku Pioneer Corporation (Pioneer)                        
Toppan Printing                                    
Toray Group / Toray Engineering Company, Ltd.                    
Toshiba Corporation                                
Tridonic Dresden GmbH & Co KG (LEDON OLED Lighting GmbH & Co KG)        
ULVAC Inc. / ULVAC Technologies, Inc.                         
Universal Display Corporation                            
Veeco Instruments Inc.                                 
Verbatim (Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corporation Group)                
Visionox Company                                
WiseChip Semiconductor Inc.                            
XENON Corporation                                

5. ElectroniCast Market Research Methodology                           

6.  Definitions and Standards                                   
6.1 Acronyms, Abbreviations, and General Terms                        
6.2 Lighting Standards and Protocols                                

7.  ElectroniCast Market Forecast Data Base – Introduction/Explanation of Excel Worksheets        
7.1 Overview                                       
7.2 Tutorial of the Excel Worksheets                               
List of Tables

1.1.1 OLEDs Used in Lighting Global Forecast, By Region ($ Million)                
1.1.1 OLEDs Used in Lighting Global Forecast, By End-User Group ($ Million)            
2.1 Comparison of Light Emission Efficiency and Light Emission Life               
3.1.1 OLEDs Used in Lighting Global Forecast, by End-User Group ($ Million)            
3.1.2 OLEDs Used in Lighting Global Forecast, by End-User Group (Million Square Meters)        
3.1.3 OLEDs Used in Lighting Global Forecast, by End-User Group (ASP per Square Meter)        
3.1.4.a Members - CERC Building Energy Efficiency Consortium                    
3.1.4.b Members - CERC Building Energy Efficiency Consortium                    
3.1.5 General Characteristics of OLEDs                                
3.1.5 OLEDs Used in Lighting Global Forecast, by Region ($ Million)                    
3.1.6 OLEDs Used in Lighting Global Forecast, by Region (Million Square Meters)            
3.1.7 OLEDs Used in Lighting Global Forecast, by Region (ASP per Square Meter)            
3.2.1 OLEDs Used in Lighting American Forecast, by Sub-Region ($ Million)               
3.2.2 OLEDs Used in Lighting American Forecast, by End-User Group ($ Million)           
3.2.3 OLEDs Used in Lighting USA/Canada Forecast, by End-User Group ($ Million)           
3.2.4 OLEDs Used in Lighting Latin American Forecast, by End-User Group ($ Million)           
3.2.5 Selling to a Government Entity                                
3.2.6 Members of Next Generation Lighting Industry Alliance (NGLIA)                  
3.2.7 Latin American Demographic Trends                            
3.3.1 European Sub-Regions as identified by the United Nations Geo-scheme               
3.3.2 Population in Northern Europe, by Country                           
3.3.3 Population in Southern Europe, by Country                           
3.3.4 Population in Western Europe, by Country                           
3.3.5 Population in Eastern Europe, by Country                           
3.3.6 OLEDs Used in Lighting EMEA Forecast, by Sub-Region ($ Million)                
3.3.7 OLEDs Used in Lighting EMEA Forecast, by End-User Group ($ Million)            
3.3.8 OLEDs Used in Lighting Northern Europe Forecast, by End-User Group ($ Million)        
3.3.9 OLEDs Used in Lighting Southern Europe Forecast, by End-User Group ($ Million)        
3.3.10  OLEDs Used in Lighting Western Europe Forecast, by End-User Group ($ Million)        
3.3.11  OLEDs Used in Lighting Eastern Europe Forecast, by End-User Group ($ Million)        
3.3.12  OLEDs Used in Lighting Middle East/Africa Forecast, by End-User Group ($ Million)        
3.4.1  OLEDs Used in Lighting APAC Forecast, by Sub-Region ($ Million)                
3.4.2  OLEDs Used in Lighting APAC Forecast, by End-User Group ($ Million)                
3.4.3  OLEDs Used in Lighting People’s Republic of China Forecast, End-User Group ($ Million)        
3.4.4  OLEDs Used in Lighting Japan Forecast, by End-User Group ($ Million)                
3.4.5  OLEDs Used in Lighting Republic of Korea Forecast, by End-User Group ($ Million)        
3.4.6  OLEDs Used in Lighting Rest of APAC Forecast, by End-User Group ($ Million)            
3.4.7  List of ELCOMA Members                                    

List of Figures

1.1.1 OLEDs Used in Lighting Global Market Forecast (Value Basis, $ Million)               
1.1.2 OLEDs Used in Lighting Global Market Forecast (Quantity Basis, Million/Units)               
1.1.3  OLEDs Used in Lighting Global Market Forecast (ASP per Square Meter)       
1.1.4  OLEDs Used in Lighting Global Forecast, By End-User Group ($ Million)           
1.1.5.a OLED Lighting Panel                                   
1.1.5.b OLED Lighting Control Circuit                               
1.1.5cc OLED Lighting Module                                   
1.1.6  Transparent OLED on Foil                                   
1.2.1  Samples of Lighting Fixture Types, using LEDs                                      
1.2.1  Samples of Lighting Fixture Types, using OLEDs                                      
2.1  OLED Layer Diagram with Glass Substrate                           
2.2.a  OLED Layer Diagram: as anode                               
2.2.b   OLED Layer Diagram: as HIL-layer                               
2.3  Illustration of a Device to Stabilize 2D Materials                        
2.4  PIN Doping Technology                                   
2.5  Blue OLED                                       
2.6  Fully Stretchable OLED                                    
2.7  High-Efficient Flexible OLED on Plastic                             
2.8 Fabrication of Large-Area OLED Lighting Module                         
2.9  Color-Tunable and Framed OLED Panel Modules                        
2.10 OLED Modules                                        
2.11  Evolution of Research Emphasis during Technology Life Cycle                 
3.1.1 Product Life Cycle (PLC)                                    
3.1.2 Kitchen Under-Cabinet OLED-Based Lighting System                        
3.1.3 Phosphorescent OLED (PHOLED) Lamp                            
3.1.4 OLED caster light for Broadcasting Studios                           
3.1.5 OLED Inkjet-Printing System                                
4.1 Concept OLED luminaire                                    
4.2 Electron Beam Array Test (EBT) system                            
4.3 Thin Film Encapsulation for OLED Research and Manufacturing                
4.4 OLED Desk/Table Lamp                                    
4.5 OLED Desk/Table Lamp                                    
4.6 Flexible Glass                                        
4.7 OLED Liquid Printing Process Technology: Cost Savings       
4.8 Fabrication of Large-Area OLED Lighting Module                        
4.9 OLED Desk Lighting                                   
4.10 OLED Lighting Fixture                                   
4.11 OLED Lighting Fixture                                   
4.12.a  OLED Layer Diagram: as anode                               
4.12.b  OLED Layer Diagram: as HIL-layer                               
4.13 OLED Lighting Tiles with Initial Integrated Frames                        
4.14 OLED Panels in Colors                                   
4.15 OLED Lighting Panel                                    
4.16 LED Panel Example versus an OLED Panel Example                       
4.17 OLED Panel Units with External Power Unit                           
4.18 OLED Lighting Examples                                    
4.19 Detail of the OLED Panel                                    
4.20 Display – OLED Panel                                    
4.21 OLED Lighting                                        
4.22 Ultra-Thin Glass Sheet, Rolled into a cylinder                        
4.23 OLED Lighting Panel                                    
4.24 Organic EL Display (OELD) Materials                            
4.25 OLED- Automobile Tail Lights                                
4.26 Fabrication of Large-Area OLED Lighting Module                        
4.27 OLED-Based Desk/Table Lamp                                
4.28 OLED Processing                                    
4.29  OLED Screen                                        
4.30  Packaging: Conventional LED and Flexible OLED                        
4.31  OLED-Based Desk Lamp featuring Carbon Fabric Materials                    
4.32  Transparent OLEDs                                    
4.33  Organic Solutions Applied to Substrate                            
4.34  Comparison of PLEDs and SMOLEDs                              
4.35  Quality & Environment Management System                            
4.36  OLED evaporation process Equipment                            
4.37  Polymer OLED Test Cells                                    
4.38  Schematic illustration of printing method applied to glass substrate                
4.39  Device structure and luminous efficiency                            
4.40  OLED Modules                                        
4.41  Flexible OLED Modules                                    
4.42  Demonstrator of an OLED Panel                                
4.43  OLED-Based Loop Lamp Design                                
4.44  Corporation Structural Chart                                
4.45  OLED Panel Light                      
5.1 ElectroniCast Market Research & Forecasting Methodology                    
6.1.1 MacAdam Ellipses Chart
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