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Future of the Nigerian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2018

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Published Date: Aug, 2013
Format: PDF
No of Pages: 99
 
 
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  • Abstract
  • Table of Contents

This report is the result of SDI’s extensive market and company research covering the Nigerian defense industry, and provides detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values including key growth stimulators, analysis of the leading companies in the industry, and key news.

Introduction and Landscape

Why was the report written?
The Future of the Nigerian Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2018 offers the reader an insight into the market opportunities and entry strategies adopted by foreign original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to gain market share in the Nigerian defense industry.

What is the current market landscape and what is changing?
The Nigerian defense market, valued at US$2.3 billion in 2013, is expected to see a double digit growth rate over the forecast period, to reach US$4.4 billion by 2018. Piracy, oil smuggling in the Gulf of Guinea and a contribution to peacekeeping operations are expected to drive the country’s military expenditure to register a growth rate of 13.62% over the forecast period. The growth in military expenditure will be assisted by the country’s stable economic growth over the forecast period, which will a see rise in defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP from 0.8% in 2013 to 1.1% in 2018. Nigeria’s capital defense expenditure is expected to increase from 0.4 billion in 2013 to 0.6 billion by 2018, although its share in total expenditure is expected to decrease from 15% during the review period to 14% over the forecast period. Defense equipment such as marine helicopters, fighters, patrol vessels, and armored personnel carriers are expected to be demand over the forecast period. An under developed domestic defense industry and availability of funds propel the Nigerian government to import from the countries producing low-cost defense equipment. The growing threat from Boko Haram and other extremist groups in northeastern states, and drug trafficking are expected to drive the Nigerian government’s investments in homeland security over the forecast period. Police modernization and homeland security infrastructure developments are expected to be primary areas for investment by the government.

What are the key drivers behind recent market changes?
Nigerian military expenditure is expected to be mainly driven by peacekeeping operations and efforts to stop the smuggling of stolen oil.

What makes this report unique and essential to read?
The Future of the Nigerian Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2018 provides detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth expectations from 2014 to 2018, including highlights of key growth stimulators. It also benchmarks the industry against key global markets and provides a detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas.

Key Features and Benefits

The report provides detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth expectations from 2014 to 2018, including highlights of key growth stimulators, and also benchmarks the industry against key global markets and provides a detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas.

The report includes trend analysis of imports and exports, together with their implications and impact on the Nigerian defense industry.

The report covers five forces analysis to identify various power centers in the industry and how these are expected to develop in the future.

The report allows readers to identify possible ways to enter the market, together with detailed descriptions of how existing companies have entered the market, including key contracts, alliances, and strategic initiatives.
The report helps the reader to understand the competitive landscape of the defense industry in Nigeria. It provides an overview of key defense companies, both domestic and foreign, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis.

Key Market Issues

According to the Corruption Perceptions Index 2010 of Transparency International, Nigeria is classified as a highly corrupt country. Corruption can result in unfair contract awards and has become a major obstacle for foreign companies aiming to supply arms to the Nigerian MoD. There is also widespread corruption in the Nigerian Police Force; embezzlement and mismanagement of the police budget has resulted in only a small portion of the budget being spent on protecting internal security, resulting in an increased internal threat to the country. In January 2008 the Chief of Army Staff, acting for and on behalf of the government of Nigeria, awarded contracts to Esquire Ventures Ltd., Profitel Ltd., Century Communications Ltd., and Jonny-Way Investments Ltd., for the supply of various specialist military items to be used by Nigeria's UN-backed troops, for NGN1,190.7 million (US$10.3 million). Materials valued at NGN660 million (US$5.7 million) were supplied and others worth NGN530.7 million (US$4.6 million) were ready for shipment, but the contractors were paid only NGN175 million (US$1.5 million), leaving the contractors underpaid, despite the country receiving funding for the project from the UN worth several million dollars. Issues such as this are causing the Ministry of Defense and Nigerian Police to maintain a high level of focus on anti-corruption activities.

With a defense budget of US$2.3 billion in 2013, Nigeria invests only 0.8% of its GDP towards defense. During the review period an average of 14.9% of the defense budget was allocated for capital expenditure, representing a relatively low allocation for the purchase of equipment and high-technology arms and ammunition. As a result, the country’s relatively small defense budget does not attract foreign defense companies, and the prohibition of FDI in the defense sector also acts as a barrier for market entry for foreign suppliers.

Key Highlights

Nigeria is the largest crude oil producer in Africa and generates about 80% of its revenues from oil exports. However, the country is plagued by piracy and oil theft, so loses about 10% of its oil exports. The expanding activities of criminal gangs have caused an upsurge in the number of oil ships attacked by the Nigerian pirates in Gulf of Guinea in the last two years. Pirates not only hold the ship and crew for ransom, but also strip the vessel of oil and other valuable items. A lack of stringent security measures in Gulf of Guinea and along its borders has also accentuated the threat of oil theft, which cripples the country’s economy. In 2011, Nigerian soldiers destroyed nearly 500 illegal oil refineries in the Niger Delta region to stop the smuggling of stolen oil in the country. Recently, Nigeria had to withdraw its peacekeeping contingent form Darfur to counter the threat from oil smugglers in around of Niger Delta. The Nigerian government is expected to spend on strengthening its Navy and maritime patrol to deal with oil smugglers and procure necessary equipment over the forecast period. Nigeria’s Navy is seeking government approval to acquire up to 49 ships and 42 helicopters over the next ten years to guard the nation’s territorial waterways and Gulf of Guinea.

Nigeria has a long history of internal conflicts marring its economic growth and stability. Although these conflicts have ethnic and religious connotations to them, the divisions have deeper reasons such as struggles for control over the oil. The recent emergence of the radical Islamic group, Boko Haram flared up the rebellion in northeast Nigeria leading to the announcement of emergency in these states by the President in May. Boko Haram is believed to be behind the kidnappings of foreign nationals for ransom and subsequent killings in the past two years. Nigerian government suspects that Boko Haram’s leadership has ties with Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and other international terrorist groups; these suspicions have become stronger due to the sophisticated weaponery used by the Boko Haram during the conflict with Nigerian Army prior to the emergency declaration. The Nigerian government passed its first anti-terrorism act in February 2011, and is also expected to invest in surveillance and intelligence technologies to counter the threat posed by these extremist groups. Nigeria is expected to modernize its police force to enable them to handle the threats posed by these extremist groups armed with sophisticated equipment.

Nigeria’s defense imports peaked in 2010 due to the import of aircraft from China and fell back to 2009 levels during 2011. The sudden increase in imports in 2010 is primarily due to the import of 15 F-7 aircraft from China. During the forecast period, imports of defense equipment are expected to rise further as the country plans to increase its defense expenditure and spend more on equipment purchases. The underdeveloped domestic defense market will also lead to a rise in total defense equipment purchases during the forecast period.



1 Introduction
1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. SDI Terrorism Index
1.5. About Strategic Defence Intelligence
2 Executive Summary
3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.1.1. Defense expenditure is projected to grow at a CAGR of 13.62% during the forecast period
3.1.2. Piracy, Oil smuggling and peacekeeping operations are expected to drive defense expenditure
3.1.3. Defense budget as a percentage of GDP expected to average 1.0% over the forecast period
3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.2.1. Share of Revenue expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period
3.2.2. Capital expenditure budget expected to decline during the forecast period
3.2.3. Allocation for the Army accounts for the majority of the defense budget
3.2.4. Army expenditure to grow at a CAGR 14.31% over the forecast period
3.2.5. Naval expenditure to grow at a faster pace over the forecast period
3.2.6. Expenditure on the Air Force to increase during the forecast period
3.2.7. Allocation for other expenses to decline during the forecast period
3.2.8. Per-capita defense expenditure expected to increase during the forecast period
3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.3.1. Homeland security budget projected to increase during the forecast period
3.3.2. Boko Haram threat, drug trafficking, cybercrime, and money laundering to drive the homeland security market
3.3.3. Nigeria comes under ‘moderately affected category’ by terrorist attack
3.3.4. Nigeria experienced moderate terror activity during the review period
3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.4.1. The country’s defense budget expected to increase during the forecast period
3.4.2. Nigerian military expenditure is limited compared to countries with the largest defense expenditure
3.4.3. The country allocates a lower percentage of GDP to defense
3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
3.5.1. Fighters & Multi-role Aircraft
3.5.2. Police Modernization
3.5.3. Marine Helicopters
3.5.4. Homeland Security Infrastructure
4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1. Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1. Limited defense capability of domestic defense market drives imports
4.1.2. Defense imports expected to increase during the forecast period
4.1.3. China, the US and Italy account for the majority of the country’s defense imports
4.1.4. Aircraft and ships are the largest imported military hardware
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1. Nigeria does not export arms due to its under-developed domestic arms industry
5 Industry Dynamics
5.1. Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: low to medium
5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: medium to high
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: low
5.1.5. Threat of substitution: low
6 Market Entry Strategy
6.1. Market Regulation
6.1.1. Nigeria does not disclose any offset obligations imposed by the country
6.1.2. FDI in defense sector prohibited by the Nigerian government
6.2. Market Entry Route
6.2.1. Direct selling is the preferred market entry route for foreign OEMs
6.3. Key Challenges
6.3.1. Corruption acts as an obstacle for market entry
6.3.2. Small defense budget does not attract suppliers
7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
7.2. Key Domestic Companies
7.2.1. Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited: overview
7.2.2. Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited: products and services
7.2.3. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: overview
7.2.4. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: products and services
7.2.5. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.6. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: alliances
7.2.7. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: recent contract awards
8 Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1. Demographics & Social Statistics
8.1.1. Population – Rural
8.1.2. Population - Urban
8.1.3. Population – Number of Households
8.2. Economic Performance
8.2.1. Gross Domestic per Capita
8.2.2. Gross Domestic Product, current US$
8.2.3. Exports of Goods and Services
8.2.4. Imports of Goods and Services
8.2.5. Manufacturing Output
8.2.6. Consumer Price Index
8.2.7. Local Currency Unit per US$
8.2.8. Local Currency Unit per EUR
8.2.9. Lending Rate (%)
8.2.10. Deposit Rate (%)
8.2.11. Real Interest Rate (%)
8.2.12. Real Interest Rate (%)
8.2.13. Market Capita (%)
8.2.14. Goods Exports as a % of GDP
8.2.15. Goods Imports as a % of GDP
8.2.16. Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit as a % of GDP
8.2.17. Services Imports as a % of GDP
8.2.18. Services Exports as a % of GDP
8.2.19. Services trade surplus/deficit as a % of GDP
8.2.20. Net Foreign Direct Investment
8.2.21. Net FDI as a percentage of GDP
8.2.22. International reserves, including Gold
8.3. Energy and Utilities
8.3.1. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation
8.3.2. Hydroelectricity Net Generation
8.3.3. Nuclear Electricity Net Generation
8.3.4. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity
8.3.5. Proved Reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet)
8.3.6. Total Petroleum Consumption
8.3.7. Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Billion Barrels)
8.4. Infrastructure Quality and Availability
8.4.1. Air Transport, freight (million ton-km)
8.5. Telecommunication
8.5.1. Telephone lines
9 Appendix
9.1. About SDI
9.2. Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: Nigerian Defense Expenditure, 2009–2013
Table 2: Nigerian Defense Expenditure, 2014–2018
Table 3: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2009–2013
Table 4: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014–2018
Table 5: Nigerian Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2009–2013
Table 6: Nigerian Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014–2018
Table 7: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), 2009–2013
Table 8: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2014–2018
Table 9: Nigerian Defense budget Split between Army, Air Force, Navy, and others, 2009–2013
Table 10: Nigerian Defense budget Split between Army, Air Force, Navy, and Others, 2014–2018
Table 11: Nigerian Expenditure on Army (US$ Billion), 2009–2013
Table 12: Nigerian Expenditure on Army (US$ Billion), 2014–2018
Table 13: Nigerian Expenditure on Navy (US$ Billion), 2009–2013
Table 14: Nigerian Expenditure on Navy (US$ Billion), 2014–2018
Table 15: Nigerian Expenditure on Air Force (US$ Billion), 2009–2013
Table 16: Nigerian Expenditure on Air Force (US$ Billion), 2014–2018
Table 17: Nigerian Other Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2009–2013
Table 18: Nigerian Other Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014–2018
Table 19: Nigerian Per-Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2009–2013
Table 20: Nigerian Per-Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014–2018
Table 21: Nigerian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2009–2013
Table 22: Nigerian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2014–2018
Table 23: SDI Terrorism Index
Table 24: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2009–2013 vs. 2014–2018
Table 25: Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited – Main Services
Table 26: Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria – Main Products
Table 27: Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Alliances
Table 28: Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Recent Contract Awards

List of Figures

Figure 1: Nigerian Defense Expenditure, 2009–2013
Figure 2: Nigerian Defense Expenditure, 2014–2018
Figure 3: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2009–2013
Figure 4: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014–2018
Figure 5: Nigerian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2009–2013
Figure 6: Nigerian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014–2018
Figure 7: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (US$ million), 2009–2013
Figure 8: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2014–2018
Figure 9: Nigerian Defense budget Split between Army, Air Force, Navy, and others, 2009–2013
Figure 10: Nigerian Defense budget Split between Army, Air Force, Navy, and Others, 2014–2018
Figure 11: Nigerian Expenditure on Army (US$ Billion), 2009–2013
Figure 12: Nigerian Expenditure on Army (US$ Billion), 2014–2018
Figure 13: Nigerian Expenditure on Navy (US$ Billion), 2009–2013
Figure 14: Nigerian Expenditure on Navy (US$ Billion), 2014–2018
Figure 15: Nigerian Expenditure on Air Force (US$ Billion), 2009–2013
Figure 16: Nigerian Expenditure on Air Force (US$ Billion), 2014–2018
Figure 17: Nigerian Other Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2009–2013
Figure 18: Nigerian Other Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014–2018
Figure 19: Nigerian Per-Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2009–2013
Figure 20: Nigerian Per-Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014–2018
Figure 21: Nigerian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2009–2013
Figure 22: Nigerian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2014–2018
Figure 23: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2013
Figure 24: SDI Terrorism Index, 2013
Figure 25: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2009–2013 vs. 2014–2018
Figure 26: Defense Expenditure of the World’s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2013 and 2018
Figure 27: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2013
Figure 28: Fighters & Multi-role Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2013 - 2023
Figure 29: Diesel Electric Submarines Market Size (US$ Million), 2013 - 2023
Figure 30: Marine Helicopters Market Size (US$ Million), 2013 - 2023
Figure 31: Homeland Security Infrastructure Market Size (US$ Million), 2013 - 2023
Figure 32: Nigerian Defense Import Trend, 2008–2012 (TIV values)
Figure 33: Nigerian Defense Imports by Country (US$ Million), 2008–2012
Figure 34: Nigerian Defense Imports by Category (%),2008–2012
Figure 35: Industry Dynamics – Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
Figure 36: Nigeria’s Population – Rural (In Millions), 2009–2018
Figure 37: Nigeria’s Population – Urban (In Millions), 2009–2018
Figure 38: Nigeria’s Population – Number of Households (In Millions), 2009–2018
Figure 39: Nigeria’s GDP per capita, 2008–2017
Figure 40: Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (current US$ Billion), 2008–2017
Figure 41: Nigeria’s Exports of goods and services (current US$ Billion), 2002–2011
Figure 42: Nigeria’s Imports of goods and services (current US$ Billion), 2002–2011
Figure 43: Nigeria’s Manufacturing Output (US$ Billion), 2002–2011
Figure 44: Nigeria’s Consumer Price Index, 2009–2018
Figure 45: Nigeria’s LCU per US$, 2009–2018
Figure 46: Nigeria’s LCU per EUR, 2009–2018
Figure 47: Nigeria’s Lending Rate (%), 2002–2011
Figure 48: Nigeria’s Deposit Rate (%), 2001–2010
Figure 49: Nigeria’s Real Interest Rate (%), 2002–2011
Figure 50: Nigeria’s Real Interest Rate (%), 2002–2011
Figure 51: Nigeria’s Real Interest Rate (%), 2002–2011
Figure 52: Nigeria’s Goods Exports as a % of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 53: Nigeria’s Goods Imports as a % of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 54: Nigeria’s Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit as a % of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 55: Nigeria’s Services Imports as a % of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 56: Nigeria’s Services Exports as a % of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 57: Nigeria’s Services trade surplus/deficit as a % of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 58: Nigeria’s Net Foreign Direct Investment (current US$ Billion), 2002–2011
Figure 59: Nigeria’s Net FDI as a percentage of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 60: Nigeria’s International reserves, including Gold (US$ Billion), 2002–2011
Figure 61: Nigeria’s Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt Hours), 2001–2010
Figure 62: Nigeria’s Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion KWH), 2001–2010
Figure 63: Nigeria’s Nuclear Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt Hours), 2001–2010
Figure 64: Nigeria’s Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million
Figure 65: Nigeria’s Proved Reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet), 2002–2011
Figure 66: Nigeria’s Total Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels per Day), 2002–2011
Figure 67: Nigeria’s Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Billion Barrels), 2002–2011
Figure 68: Nigeria’s Air Transport, freight (million ton-km), 2001–2010
Figure 69: Nigeria’s Telephone lines, 2001–2010



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