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Captive Coal Blocks in India - 2011 : Unveiling the opportunities beneath - For Indian Customers

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Published Date: Jul, 2011
 
 
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  • Abstract
  • Table of Contents

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The Indian coal industry faces shortage of supply akin to the gas industry a decade ago. As per Infraline’s estimates, the domestic shortage of coal would be around 300 MT by the end of the XII Five-Year Plan. This demand-supply mismatch is likely to widen drastically over the medium to long-term. As a result of this scenario, many Indian companies are scouting, and some have succeeded in acquiring global coal assets. While such coal imports would address the supply needs, it would still face the risks associated with prices, country’s politics, economy and associated infrastructure.
Even the recent proposal on pooled-pricing of coal to leverage the costlier foreign coal is not an appropriate solution, as it is likely to add huge national cost and discourage domestic mining. The bottom line is that the productivity of domestic mining companies is abysmally poor when compared globally. What India needs is reforms in opening the coal mining sector to private participation.

The MMDR Amendment Act, 2010 in the last fi scal paved the way for introducing competition in coal mining. The Ministry of Coal (MoC) recently issued the draft guidelines for allocation of captive coal blocks on competitive basis. Against the earlier preference- based practice, the new blocks will be offered with reserve price tags set by MoC on the basis of the assessed resourcefulness of the blocks. Moreover, the bidders whose end-useplants are in same State as the notifi ed block would be given a due weightage while evaluation. Successful bidders would have to explore, develop, operate, and close the mines, which would create huge business opportunities for other players in the mining industry. New entrants without deep pockets for acquiring global coal could now opt for domestic captive blocks in order to minimise their costs and risks.

InfralineEnergy through its second annual edition of “CAPTIVE COAL BLOCKS IN INDIA – 2011” investigates the captive coal space in a 360 degree perspective. The preliminary sections are contemplated to showcase the ground realities of the industry supported by updated facts and fi gures. Statistical models are used to forecast the demand for coal under various scenarios, assess the supply position from declared production and planned imports so as to deduce the precise demand that captive coal can address. Such demand sizing is indispensable for macrolevel business decisions and is the only thing investors would ever need.

Based on recent block-wise status and developments, the further sections will trace the trends set by the allocation done so far. Though of different nature and varying quantum, captive coal similar to imported coal, faces certain unquantifi able risks demanding premium-returns unless assessed and mitigated in time. In addition to the comprehensive block-wise details and trends on so far allocation, the report will bring out the primary-research outputs on end-use projects, de-allocated blocks, distressed blocks and blocks in line for future allocation. Over and above, the exclusive issue map on uncertainties and challenges, impact analysis of the proposed competitive bidding mechanism, industry opinions, comparative analysis of different sourcing options and economics of Captive Mining will altogether set an innovative path fi nding guide to all stakeholders

Industry-fi rst analysis on

  • Ground realities on extractable reserves, actual productivity and effi ciency setbacks
  • Captive coal demand sizing through scenario based outlook on aggregate demand and supply position by FY20
  • Recent trends in block allocation and production
  • Impact analysis of the proposed competitive reserve-price tag mechanism (MMDR Act, 2010)
  • Key issues and challenges from the perspective of owners, lenders and developers
  • Comparative analysis on different sourcing options viz Captive, Imported and Linkage Coal
  • Estimated investments in captive coal segment
  • Qualitative analysis on associated risks and mitigating measures
  • Business case analysis – capital cost of coal mining projects and contracting arrangements
  • Mapping business opportunities for stakeholders in the value-chain
  • Feasibility of the emerging business models like trading surplus coal, merchant mining etc.

Comprehensive Data Points on

  • Details of the blocks allocated so far
  • List of de-allocated blocks with reasons
  • Recent status of end-use-projects
  • Details of the blocks in Captive Mine list
  • List of blocks identifi ed for future allocation

Key Questions Answered

  • What is the key rationale behind the supply shortfall in domestic coal industry?
  • Will CIL’s CLTO Import Model sustain in long run? Its infl uence on domestic production?
  • What cost-advantages does captive coal bring to the end-use-projects?
  • Why production from captive mines has not picked as expected?
  • Is environmental clearance the only factor arresting the industry’s growth?
  • Will the proposed competitive mechanism pave the way for merchant mining or privatisation?

Table of Contents :

1. The Dynamics of Indian Coal Industry – Historical Trends
Contribution to India’s energy-mix
Estimated and Proven Reserves
Extractable Reserve Base from Geological, Technical and
Economical Perspective
Demand and Supply Position
Production and Consumption Pattern
Long-term and Short-term Prices
Imports and Trading Trends
Washing and Blending Trends
Transportation Environment

2. Coal Demand Supply Outlook - 2020
Forecasted Aggregate Demand for Coal
Planned Domestic Production
Planned Imports
Estimated Unmet Demand

3. Captive Coal Block – The Marquee Asset
Defl ated Fuel Supply and Price Risks
Pricing Power - Competent Cost Advantages to EUPs
Captive Coal Vs Imported Coal Vs Linkage Coal – A Comparative
Analysis

4. Trends in Block Allocation & Production
Analysis on the Blocks Allocated and Development Status
– Year-wise
– State-wise
– Industry-wise
– Developer-wise
– Capacity-wise
– EUP-wise
– Grade-wise
– Current Status-wise
– Production-wise
– Mine-type wise

5. Investments Planned and Proposed in Captive Coal Segment
Key Players Ahead in Investments
Proposed Investments
Financing Arrangements and Options
Industry Case-studies

6. Risks Associated with Captive Mining
Risks Faced by Developers – Qualitative Analysis
Mitigating Techniques
Best Industry Practices

7. Business Case Analysis
Enabling Policy Framework
Value-chain in Captive Coal Block Development
Coal Mine Life Cycle
– Major Milestones
– Sequence of Operations
– Time-lines Involved
Capital Cost of Coal Mining Projects
Cost, Production and Revenue Sharing Arrangements
Existing Business Models
– EPC Model
– Outsourcing
– Joint Venture
– Hybrid Structure
– Group Captive Mining

8. Issues and Challenges in Captive Coal Block Development
Concerns in Allocation and Award Process
Issues from the Perspective of Government, Lenders, Owners and
Developers
– Land Acquisition and R&R Issues
– Infrastructure and Exploration Issues
– Environmental and Legal Issues
– Lack of Expertise to Develop Mines
– Financing Issues
– Lack of Appropriate Business Structure
Other Intangible Issues
Collated Issue-map for Captive Mining

9. Business Opportunities in the Value Chain
EPC Companies in Mining, Washing
Technology Providers
Equipment Manufacturers
Logistics Providers
Associated Mine Infrastructure
Technical Consultants

10. Impact of Recent Developments in Coal Mining Space
MMDR Bill - Thrust on Competition and Profi t Sharing
– Linking 26% Profi t Sharing with Mineral Value
– Analysis on Future Entry and Participation
Impact Analysis of Competitive Bidding Guidelines
– Proposed Changes in Award Process
– Industry Opinions on Competitive Bidding
Environmental Policy Changes
– MoEF Guidelines
– Impact on Recent Coal Mining Projects
– Current Policy Stance
Planning Commission’s Pooled-Pricing Mechanism
– Infl uence on Captive Mining
CIL’s Coal for Long Term Off-take (CLTO) Import Model
– Evaluating the Sustainability
– Infl uence on Domestic Production
Latest Initiatives and Strategies of MoC

11. Emerging Business Models for Private Sector Participation
Newer Technologies - UCG, CTL, CBM Development
Diverting and Trading Surplus Coal – On the Anvil
Merchant Mining Model - New Paradigm
Privatisation – The Next Transition
Exports

12. Key Research Findings

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