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South Africa's public utility Eskom is struggling to strike a balance between the country'selectricity needs, the price it is permitted to charge for power, the cost of its main source of energy (coal)and current levels of consumption. While the utility received government approval for a construction of anew power station - simply called Coal 3 at this stage - delays to the Medupi and Kusile coal-fired stationsmean that there's an electricity crisis looming. The utility admits that there will be a 'potential gap insupply' in 2014. In an energy market dominated by coal-fired generators, at first glance it seems that SouthAfrica has few means of broadening its electricity mix, but there is growing interest in the country's gasresources, with plans to develop an offshore gas field. As such, we expect that gas could have a greater roleto play in the long term. Other factors that will shape the development of South Africa's electricity marketinclude speculation over a carbon tax, which could be introduced by 2015, and would affect the profitabilityof fossil-fuel electricity generation. It's of little surprise, then, that talk of nuclear power is emerging.In 2012, electricity generation in South Africa stood at 246.53 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a 1.32%increase on the previous year. Coal-fired sources of electricity accounted for nearly 95% of this figure, andwe expect that coal will continue to play a major role in electricity production during the course of ourforecast period, rising by a CAGR of 2.44% to stand at 295.91TWh in 2022. Economic growth - we forecastreal GDP of just under 3% every year during our 10-year forecast period to 2022 - and demographics willboth drive demand upwards. We forecast that South Africa will be a net exporter of electricity during thisperiod.
Industry View 7SWOT 8Industry Forecast 10South Africa Snapshot 10Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data 10Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10South Africa Power Forecast Scenario 11Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 11Table: South Africa Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016 11Table: South Africa Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 12Table: South Africa Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016 15Table: South Africa Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 16Electricity Consumption 25Table: South Africa Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016 25Table: South Africa Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 25Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports 26Table: South Africa Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016 26Table: South Africa Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 27Table: South Africa Trade Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016 27Table: South Africa Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 27Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 29MEA Power Risk/Reward Ratings 29Table: MENA Risk/Reward Ratings, Scores Out Of 100 35Table: SSA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 35South Africa Power Risk/Reward Ratings 36Rewards 36Risks 37Market Overview 38Key Policies And Market Structure 38Regulation and Competition 38Sustainable Energy Policies 39Pricing 40South Africa Power Projects Database 41Table: South Africa Power Projects Database 41Competitive Landscape 46Company Profile 48Eskom 48Regional Overview 52MEA Regional Overview 52Glossary 59Table: Glossary Of Terms 59Methodology 60Methodology And Sources 60Industry Forecasts 60Power Industry - Data Methodology 61Generation and Consumption Data 61Electricity Generating Capacity Data 62Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 63Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators 65Sources 66