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View: As a new member of the Customs Union, Kazakhstan will impose a tariff on importedpharmaceuticals. This will moderately impact medium term growth in the pharmaceutical market asdemand for medicines is driven by private consumption. Nevertheless, we expect pharmaceutical spendingto accelerate as the government commits to increasing healthcare expenditure and wages continue to grow.For multinational drug manufactures, Kazakhstan will continue to be the most attractive pharmaceuticalmarket in the Central Asian region.Headline Expenditure Projections - Pharmaceuticals: KZT273.92bn (US$1.84bn) in 2013 to KZT302.36bn (US$2.06bn) in 2014; up 10.4%in local currency terms and 12.0% in US dollar terms. - Healthcare: KZT1,537bn (US$10.34bn) in 2013 to KZT1,705bn (US$11.63bn) in 2014; up 10.9% inlocal currency terms and 12.5% in US dollar terms.Risk/Reward Rating: Kazakhstan has a RRR score of 50.9 out of 100, making it the 11th most attractivepharmaceutical market in Emerging Europe. Although the Kazakh market is characterised by relatively fewmarket barriers and rapid growth, the potential rewards for the industry are moderated by low per capitaspending, an unfavourable rural-urban population split
Industry View 7SWOT 9Industry Forecast 11Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 11Table: Kazakhstan Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2010-2018 12Healthcare Market Forecast 13Table: Kazakhstan Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2010-2018 14Table: Kazakhstan Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts 15Table: Kazakhstan Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts 15Prescription Drug Market Forecast 16Table: Kazakhstan Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2010-2018 17Patented Drug Market Forecast 17Table: Kazakhstan Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2010-2018 18Generic Drug Market Forecast 19Table: Kazakhstan Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts 20OTC Medicine Market Forecast 21Table: Kazakhstan Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts 22Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 23Table: Kazakhstan Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn), 2010-2018 24Table: Kazakhstan Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (KZTmn), 2010-2018 25Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 26Macroeconomic Forecasts 27Table: Kazakhstan - Economic Activity 31Industry Risk Reward Ratings 32Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings 32Kazakhstan Risk/Reward Ratings 38Rewards 38Risks 39Market Overview 41Industry Trends And Developments 43Epidemiology 43Healthcare Sector 44Healthcare Sector Financing 46Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry 47Wholesale And Retail 50Foreign Pharmaceutical Industry 52Clinical Trials 54Regulatory Development 55Intellectual Property Environment 57Pricing And Reimbursement Regime 59Competitive Landscape 62Company Profile 65Chimpharm 65Romat 67Novartis 69Sanofi 71GlaxoSmithKline 73Nycomed 75Merck & Co77Pfizer 78Ranbaxy 80Demographic Forecast 82Table: Kazakhstan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 83Table: Kazakhstan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 84Table: Kazakhstan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 85Table: Kazakhstan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 85Glossary 86Methodology 88Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model 88Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model 88Notes On Methodology 89Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 90Ratings Overview 91Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators 91Indicator Weightings 92